Holliday or Skenes. Who would you rather have?

[LookinUp]

38 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

I would take having Skenes over someone like Cowser or Kjersted but not Holliday. 

 

I am sure Skenes will have TJ surgery eventually 

I think this is a good point. I'm asking for a comparison between a just turned 20 #1 prospect in baseball, not a #20-40 level prospect. I'm sure people who say "always take the hitter" are referring to similarly tiered prospects.

I still think I'd go with Skenes and accept that he'll pitch 1/5 days and miss 2 of 6 years due to injury. I just love that he'll likely be a workhorse starter who helps the bullpen and needs fewer runs/less defense behind him to be successful, and then you have him for the playoffs too, in theory. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

I'll continue to be a contrarian in a weird kind of way, but I really think the O's have a bunch of arms on the ML team and in the minors that have good starter upside and team control.

In addition to Rodriguez, Bradish, Irvin and Kremer, I personally like our chances of getting a couple of starters out of McDermott, Povich, Johnson, DeLeon and Bright a lot. It feels like most of them will be ready for some role in the majors by the end of 2025. Maybe not DeLeon. Then last year's draftees, most notably Baumeister, will follow.

Maybe that's not enough arms. I don't know. I'm just saying the cupboard isn't bare.

I think our pitching is underrated.  But I think Skenes has the potential to be better than anyone we have.

[MurphDogg]

Hitter every time. It is tough to ever consider a pitcher as a #1 prospect.

Just look at the pitchers who have been Baseball America's #1 prospect since 1990:

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, Rick Ankiel, Brien Taylor, Todd Van Poppel and Steve Avery.

The hitters who have been BA #1 prospects since 2010: 

Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Wander Franco, Vlad Guerrero, Jr., Ronald Acuna, Andrew Benintendi, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, Byron Buxton, Jurickson Profar, Bryce Harper (2x) and Jason Heyward.

Profar and Benintendi are the only players on that list who aren't bonafide stars (besides Holliday and Franco due to extenuating circumstances). Generational pitching talents flame out regularly. Best case scenario they win you a World Series first like Strasburg, but often times they don't.

Edited March 19 by MurphDogg

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Hitter every time. It is tough to ever consider a pitcher as a #1 prospect.

Just look at the pitchers who have been Baseball America's #1 prospect since 1990:

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, Rick Ankiel, Brien Taylor, Todd Van Poppel and Steve Avery.

The hitters who have been BA #1 prospects since 2010: 

Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Wander Franco, Vlad Guerrero, Jr., Ronald Acuna, Andrew Benintendi, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, Byron Buxton, Jurickson Profar, Bryce Harper (2x) and Jason Heyward.

Profar and Benintendi are the only players on that list who aren't bonafide stars (besides Holliday and Franco due to extenuating circumstances). Generational pitching talents flame out regularly. Best case scenario they win you a World Series first like Strasburg, but often times they don't.

Josh Beckett in 2007 is the type of guy you dream on. His career was just good overall, but he was a dog in the playoffs for that team that won the World Series.

[luismatos4prez]

9 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Josh Beckett in 2007 is the type of guy you dream on. His career was just good overall, but he was a dog in the playoffs for that team that won the World Series.

He won WS MVP for Florida in 03 as well. Big time clutch pitcher.

[Yossarian]

What if you had a crystal ball and could see Skenes future is the same as the career of,  say,  Stephen Strasburg.  Without knowing Holliday's future, do you take him over the Stephen Strasburg career?

[TopGunnar]

Holliday and for me it’s not terribly close. And I think Skenes is going to be really good .

[baltfan]

I think I would take Skenes given the system we have.  He is also an otherworldly talent.  I am not confident Holliday is other worldly. 

[HowAboutThat]

Who would Pittsburg prefer?

Here, Skenes.

As good as JH is, we have several of him; all less than he is, but all complete or almost complete major leaguers.

Not a Skenes in the whole cupboard.

[Satyr3206]

4 hours ago, Yossarian said:

What if you had a crystal ball and could see Skenes future is the same as the career of,  say,  Stephen Strasburg.  Without knowing Holliday's future, do you take him over the Stephen Strasburg career?

No I would not. Pitchers all break. I would take Holliday everyday of the week and twice on Sunday.

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Satyr3206 said:

No I would not. Pitchers all break. I would take Holliday everyday of the week and twice on Sunday.

This is spot on largely because you can play Holliday every day of the week and twice on Sunday. 

[yark14]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Not a Skenes in the whole cupboard.

That Grayson Rodriguez guy had a decent cup of coffee during the second half of last season 

Edited March 20 by yark14

[ArtVanDelay]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think our pitching is underrated.  But I think Skenes has the potential to be better than anyone we have.

Better than Corbin Burnes?  
 

It’s definitely possible but unlikely. 

[oriolediehard]

I'd take Holiday over Skenes.  Pitchers are more likely to get injured imo.

[HowAboutThat]

33 minutes ago, yark14 said:

That Grayson Rodriguez guy had a decent cup of coffee during the second half of last season 

I take your point, but I think mine remains valid.

GRod has already had injury problems. Just goes to show how much we need pitching. Mike is reluctant to draft it, but trading for it is a lot more expensive