Roch: Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby, and Al Suarez optioned

[btownoriole]

14 hours ago, dystopia said:

No argument here. Nevin over Holliday is a joke. Holliday can help this team RIGHT NOW. We're trying to win a WS RIGHT NOW. Is he really going to leave him down just to net an extra two months or so of service time? It just seems crazy to me. 

The alternative is he's down only a month, but then he could still finish top 2 in ROY and just like that you lost a month of service time instead of gaining.

I get everyone's anger...I felt the same way when I heard the news.  And I am concerned the O's aren't going to gain any service time anyway, so might as well have him on the roster even if he struggles early on to get the draft pick.

That said, I get the logic of having Nevin on the team at the start of the season.  Nevin does have a career .798 OPS against lefties and they are facing a ton early.  Holliday did not look good against lefties in the spring.  For a team wanting to win NOW, this actually does feel like they are maximizing their chances.   

I would be surprised if Nevin is on the roster very long.  I mean Vavra, Stowers, and Gillaspie were all on the early April roster last year.

Now if Nevin is still on the roster in May I may join the masses! 

[dystopia]

17 minutes ago, btownoriole said:

I get everyone's anger...I felt the same way when I heard the news.  And I am concerned the O's aren't going to gain any service time anyway, so might as well have him on the roster even if he struggles early on to get the draft pick.

That said, I get the logic of having Nevin on the team at the start of the season.  Nevin does have a career .798 OPS against lefties and they are facing a ton early.  Holliday did not look good against lefties in the spring.  For a team wanting to win NOW, this actually does feel like they are maximizing their chances.   

I would be surprised if Nevin is on the roster very long.  I mean Vavra, Stowers, and Gillaspie were all on the early April roster last year.

Now if Nevin is still on the roster in May I may join the masses! 

If LHP is the issue then promote Mayo. Or Norby. Zero reason for Nevin to be on this team. 
 

Who is getting sat though? Westburg is a rightie. Urias is a rightie. RMC is a rightie. Are you really going to sit Gunnar for Nevin just because a LHP is on the mound? I don’t think so. 

[RarityFlaherty]

13 minutes ago, dystopia said:

If LHP is the issue then promote Mayo. Or Norby. Zero reason for Nevin to be on this team. 
 

Who is getting sat though? Westburg is a rightie. Urias is a rightie. RMC is a rightie. Are you really going to sit Gunnar for Nevin just because a LHP is on the mound? I don’t think so. 

You sit O’Hearn.
 

The reason Mayo and Norby aren’t on the team is probably because they want them playing every day for their development and would rather not waste them in a limited platoon role.  Also, I’m sure both not needing to be on the 40 man roster plays a role in them not being up. Maybe they want to hold onto their depth in case they are able to work out a trade? Either way, Nevin being up is most likely not going to last very long unless he really surprises people. 

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I think McKenna gets claimed and I don’t what they see in Tyler Nevin if he makes the team. Nevin looks like an AAAA player at best and shouldn’t be beating prospects who are MLB ready. 

Did the Orioles fix something with Nevin’s swing and think he’s a breakout candidate this season. 

The Orioles are expected to see a lot of left-handers early in in the first two series and I think they want Nevin for these games. I doubt he'll still be on the roster by May unless there is an injury, and even then I expect Mayo to be up before him if there is every day PAs available at 3B or 1B.

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

You sit O’Hearn.
 

The reason Mayo and Norby aren’t on the team is probably because they want them playing every day for their development and would rather not waste them in a limited platoon role.  Also, I’m sure both not needing to be on the 40 man roster plays a role in them not being up. Maybe they want to hold onto their depth in case they are able to work out a trade? Either way, Nevin being up is most likely not going to last very long unless he really surprises people. 

This. Nevin is not going to play everyday and both Norby and Mayo need to. Besides, Norby does not have a lot of positional flexibility and while Nevin is not very good defensively wherever he plays, he does play 3B/!B and corner outfield.

Nevin won't be here all year. Mayo will end up with a lot more major league PAs this year than Nevin.

[Too Tall]

If Nevin becomes O'Hearn 2024, which I highly doubt, he'll be around for a while. This is a tempory move, IMHO, so while I am surprised/dissapointed, I am not going to get all hot and bothered. In other words, the sky ain't falling!  Elias has enough capital with me, so that I am anxious to see how this plays out. 

And, as I said in another thread, I hope Nevin carves out a nice career. I just don't think it will be with the Orioles. But, while he's here, I'll root for him because today he is an Oriole.

[dystopia]

16 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

You sit O’Hearn.
 

The reason Mayo and Norby aren’t on the team is probably because they want them playing every day for their development and would rather not waste them in a limited platoon role.  Also, I’m sure both not needing to be on the 40 man roster plays a role in them not being up. Maybe they want to hold onto their depth in case they are able to work out a trade? Either way, Nevin being up is most likely not going to last very long unless he really surprises people. 

O’Hearn sits for RMC. 
 

Who sits for Nevin? If we’re facing a bunch of LHP early on then playing time shouldn’t be an issue. 

[DirtyBird]

4 minutes ago, dystopia said:

O’Hearn sits for RMC. 
 

Who sits for Nevin? If we’re facing a bunch of LHP early on then playing time shouldn’t be an issue. 

Nevin will be DH vs LHP. That is it. That will be his role.

[interloper]

A Nevin lineup against lefties could look like this:

C - Adley
SS - Gunnar
1B - Mounty
RF - Santander
LF - Hays
3B - Urias
CF - Mullins*
DH - Nevin
2B - Westburg

*Maybe they opt for Mateo in CF, but I highly doubt they sit Mullins on game 1. 

Bench - Mateo, McCann, O'Hearn, Cowser

Edited March 25 by interloper

[interloper]

I think Nevin's presence means they didn't really like having McCann DH vs righties with Adley also in the lineup. There were some weird 3rd catcher moments from last year. Nevin let's them feel a little safer not having both catchers in the lineup. 

[RarityFlaherty]

2 minutes ago, dystopia said:

O’Hearn sits for RMC. 
 

Who sits for Nevin? If we’re facing a bunch of LHP early on then playing time shouldn’t be an issue. 

Well, we will probably see both O’Hearn and Mountcastle starting against righties at times. One at DH and one at 1B. Other times, one will get a break and Cowser will play RF with Santander at DH or 1B.
 

Against Lefties, we’ll likely see Mountcastle at first and Nevin at DH or vice versa. Depends on how Cowser looks against lefies, but I’m assuming they aren’t that confident in starting him in that situation yet, so Santander likely plays RF most of the time against lefties to start. 

[Gofannon]

If Nevin is still on the team a month into the season, I'll be shocked.  Once we get through the initial run of lefties, I think he's gone.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

48 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The Orioles are expected to see a lot of left-handers early in in the first two series and I think they want Nevin for these games. I doubt he'll still be on the roster by May unless there is an injury, and even then I expect Mayo to be up before him if there is every day PAs available at 3B or 1B.

It's cool. I've reached the acceptance stage when it comes to Nevin making the Opening Day roster. I bought in a little too much on the Jackson Holliday "sure he can make the team out of spring training" talk from Mike Elias this winter.

The facts are Orioles prospects have to put in time at Norfolk and the Orioles are going to try and max out service time for prospects.

[sportsfan8703]

35 minutes ago, interloper said:

A Nevin lineup against lefties could look like this:

C - Adley
SS - Gunnar
1B - Mounty
RF - Santander
LF - Hays
3B - Urias
CF - Mullins*
DH - Nevin
2B - Westburg

*Maybe they opt for Mateo in CF, but I highly doubt they sit Mullins on game 1. 

Bench - Mateo, McCann, O'Hearn, Cowser

Bingo. Think of Nevin like if we called up an extra lefty reliever if we began a series versus a lefty heavy hitting team. 

We wanted an analytic GM that would be like TB. Well we’re doing that. 

Why not use the 40 man roster? It’s winning, or trying to gain every little advantage. It’s why we can out perform our pythag, and the benefit of not being locked into big contracts for older players. 

Edited March 25 by sportsfan8703

[emmett16]

17 hours ago, dystopia said:

No argument here. Nevin over Holliday is a joke. Holliday can help this team RIGHT NOW. We're trying to win a WS RIGHT NOW. Is he really going to leave him down just to net an extra two months or so of service time? It just seems crazy to me. 

The alternative is he's down only a month, but then he could still finish top 2 in ROY and just like that you lost a month of service time instead of gaining.

 

14 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes there is.

I'm going to keep saying it because it's still the truth.

The 2023 team:

Exceeded their Pythagorean by a substantial amount.

They scored more runs than would be expected given how their overall offensive numbers.

 

Neither of those things are particularly repeatable.

if the 2023 team had performed as expected in those areas they would not have won 101 games, they would not have won the AL East.  They might not have made the playoffs.

I think it's foolish to go into the 2024 season acting like a spot in the playoffs is a given.  Is this team, on paper, better than the 2023 Mets and Padres?

With the vast majority of the roster entering their prime, it’s not unrealistic to expect improvement over last year with the same group.  You also have much higher impact back-ups in AAA.  The roster is much stronger than last year.  I don’t think there is an analyst out there that would disagree with that. 
 

A spot in the playoffs in never a given, you have to play the games.  See 2023 Mets & Padres.  Making “paper upgrades” and signing FA guarantees you nothing.  I’ll take the team that can develop talent all day everyday.