Corbin Burnes 2024

[DirtyBird]

15 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I guess people just expected 7-9 innings, 1-2 runs from him every start or something. His ERA is a full run lower than last year's, his FIP is 0.80 lower (for those who give a **** about that awful stat), his walk rate is lower, and his HR rate is lower. So he's actually overperformed if anything. People just had unrealistic expectations, but so far Burnes has pretty much met them for everyone not named DirtyBird.

The entire league ERA and HR rate are each down significantly. 
He’s been an extremely valuable part of the rotation. 
Last night did not show that he is worthy of a blank check, like several here responded after the game.

[dystopia]

Still hasn't given up more than 3 runs in any start this year.

[Moose Milligan]

If he continues like this, he’s in the CYA conversation for sure. 

[Sports Guy]

He missed 7 bats last night. A guy with his stuff throws 99 pitches and misses just 7 bats, against a high K team?  Thats a really crazy stat to me.

[Matt Bennett]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He missed 7 bats last night. A guy with his stuff throws 99 pitches and misses just 7 bats, against a high K team?  Thats a really crazy stat to me.

Even when he's off, he's on. Dances around the corners, everything moving, not many making loud contact. I have no doubt he'll have a Zack Greinke type 30's. 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He missed 7 bats last night. A guy with his stuff throws 99 pitches and misses just 7 bats, against a high K team?  Thats a really crazy stat to me.

I believe 99% Orioles pitching strategists encouraged Grayson and Burnes these last two nights to accept impact risk chasing outs in view of current injury and schedule circumstances.

Burnes doesn't need to worry about all the free agent suitors squeezing him.    Big game success is an unchecked box, but there's 4 or 5 NYY proving grounds coming up.

The more strong relievers Elias gets, the more they can turn the dial the other way in the championship-level competition.

[Just Regular]

In our first year of having a guy like this, I looked at how 2023 LCS losers the Astros and Phillies postseason innings results worked out.

2024 Orioles pitching is configured more like PHI/HOU than TEX/ARZ were, and baseball being a wonderful unpredictable game it can make heroes out of Josh Sborz and Brandon Pfaadt.

PHI 2023 and HOU 2023 - 9 pitchers covered ~90% of the team innings.

For the 2024 Orioles, that might map to 3 groups of 3.

Burnes, Bradish and Grayson    (Dombrowski got 61% out of his big dogs in October 2023)

Kimbrel, Cano and Coulombe

X, Y and Z

Kremer the most accomplished out of the rest, and guys like McDermott mix up with whatever else Elias can acquire.

 

[Say O!]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He missed 7 bats last night. A guy with his stuff throws 99 pitches and misses just 7 bats, against a high K team?  Thats a really crazy stat to me.

His whiff% is 29% (same as last season, but below his 35% level in 2021-2022).  Taking a closer look at his pitches on baseball savant, both his cutter and curveball are generating 10% less whiff% than those dominant 2021-2022 seasons.  Note that velo and spin metrics seem very similar.

A couple hypothesis on lack of swing/miss this season

1.  Hitters really don’t seem to expand the zone against him.  Particularly low/away where Burnes works location wise.  Hitters are not chasing there.  Palmer wants Burnes to occasionally work inside more just to vary hitter eye and expecations.  Additionally, I think mixing in a two seamer that starts off the plate then works backdoor to get the outside strike may start getting hitters to actually swing vs just take the outside pitch (when Burnes cutter and slider start outside and go further outside).

2.  From watching the games this year, it does seem that Burnes has been slightly missing his spot, particularly with his cutter.  In prior seasons, I got the impression that Burnes would paint the corners, whereas he has been missing by a couple inches. His BB rate and BB/9 is up slightly.  I think being in the zone more may get hitters to swing more, whereas it sure does seem that hitters have a higher amount of takes on pitches just out of the zone against Burnes. 

[Bemorewins]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

If he continues like this, he’s in the CYA conversation for sure. 

Not sure what his odds are to win, but he’s definitely in the conversation for sure already.

[bpilktree]

Burnes is 21st in war as a pitcher. 1.7 war  after last night.   Somehow Tyler Anderson is 1st in all of baseball with 3.3 war yet he has a 5-5 record, has worse ERA, worse whip, less innings by 3.  Fewer strikeouts, more walks and more homers given up.  Tell me WAR is not a great stat without telling me it is a great stat.  How in the world can Anderson be worth 2 times as many wins as Burnes.  

[baltfan]

26 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Not sure what his odds are to win, but he’s definitely in the conversation for sure already.

Favorite at the moment has to be Luis Gil.  Amazing that there are 3 pitchers with ERAs below 2 and no one would have anticipated any of them prior to the season.

[Aglets]

8 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

Burnes is 21st in war as a pitcher. 1.7 war  after last night.   Somehow Tyler Anderson is 1st in all of baseball with 3.3 war yet he has a 5-5 record, has worse ERA, worse whip, less innings by 3.  Fewer strikeouts, more walks and more homers given up.  Tell me WAR is not a great stat without telling me it is a great stat.  How in the world can Anderson be worth 2 times as many wins as Burnes.  

Man he must fly over to first to record put outs on grounders to the right side.

[DEOriolesfan]

29 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Not sure what his odds are to win, but he’s definitely in the conversation for sure already.

According to ESPN, he's 10th at the end of May...

 

American League

Front-runner: Seth Lugo, Royals (142.0)

Next nine: 2. Tanner Houck, Red Sox (138.6); 3. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (137.5); 4. Luis Gil, Yankees (130.7); 5. Cole Ragans, Royals (126.5); 6. Emmanuel Clase, Guardians (125.3); 7. Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox (126.5); 8. Jon Gray, Texas Rangers (125.2); 9. Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels (125.8); 10. Corbin Burnes, Orioles (123.6)

[Aglets]

14 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

Burnes is 21st in war as a pitcher. 1.7 war  after last night.   Somehow Tyler Anderson is 1st in all of baseball with 3.3 war yet he has a 5-5 record, has worse ERA, worse whip, less innings by 3.  Fewer strikeouts, more walks and more homers given up.  Tell me WAR is not a great stat without telling me it is a great stat.  How in the world can Anderson be worth 2 times as many wins as Burnes.  

In all seriousness though.  This looks like a good example of where fWAR is way better than bWAR.

Fangraphs has Burnes at 1.9 WAR (tied for 10th in MLB) and Anderson at 0.7 (outside of the top 100).

[glenn__davis]

Not sure if anyone watched his post-game last night, but he definitely alluded a bit to the fact that he has more to offer, he's just not really showing it yet.  He's made multiple comments about the early part of the season being a tune-up for September and October.  I think it will be interesting to watch his pitch deployment as the season progresses.