2024 Prospect Power Rankings

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Updated through Memorial Day May 27th!

Pitchers year so far this year!

Good!

[Greg Pappas]

@Tony-OH This is a tough question to preface, but would it be fair in your estimation to say the following players have either been disappointing as Top 5 Round draft picks (2019-2022), or at least unlikely to ever be productive major leaguers? 

• Zach Watson (2019 3rd round) No longer with the organization?
• Hudson Haskin (2020 2nd round)
• Anthony Servideo (2020 3rd round)
• Reed Trimble (2021 2nd round)
• John Rhodes (2021 3rd round)
• Donta Williams (2021 4th round)
• Max Wagner (2022 2nd round)
• Silas Ardoin (2022 4th round)

To be clear, I love what Elias has done as GM.  I have, however, noticed a pattern of his taking college bats after Round 1 that have mostly not amounted to much. 
From 2019, 2nd rounder Kyle Stowers has made it to the big leagues, though he's not that highly considered.  Still, a solid 2nd round pick and one that could play in the league for some years to come as a reserve. 
Also from 2019 is 4th rounder Joey Ortiz, who was a great pick that helped us net Corbin Burnes.
I thought about including Jud Fabian, a 2022 2nd rounder, but feel there is still hope he'll be able to contribute.

I'd much prefer to see higher upside HS bats get more in the mix in these early rounds.

Anyway, I'd love your input on this, as I may be missing something or just being a bit unfair in my critique of these picks. Thanks.

 

Edited June 5 by Greg Pappas
Misspelled Rhodes

[Tony-OH]

36 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

@Tony-OHThis is a tough question to preface, but would it be fair in your estimation to say the following players have either been disappointing as Top 5 Round draft picks (2019-2022), or at least unlikely to ever be productive major leaguers? 

• Zach Watson (2019 3rd round) No longer with the organization?
• Hudson Haskin (2020 2nd round)
• Anthony Servideo (2020 3rd round)
• Reed Trimble (2021 2nd round)
• John Rhoades (2021 3rd round)
• Donta Williams (2021 4th round)
• Max Wagner (2022 2nd round)
• Silas Ardoin (2022 4th round)

To be clear, I love what Elias has done as GM.  I have, however, noticed a pattern of his taking college bats after Round 1 that have mostly not amounted to much. 
From 2019, 2nd rounder Kyle Stowers has made it to the big leagues, though he's not that highly considered.  Still, a solid 2nd round pick and one that could play in the league for some years to come as a reserve. 
Also from 2019 is 4th rounder Joey Ortiz, who was a great pick that helped us net Corbin Burnes.
I thought about including Jud Fabian, a 2022 2nd rounder, but feel there is still hope he'll be able to contribute.

I'd much prefer to see higher upside HS bats get more in the mix in these early rounds.

Anyway, I'd love your input on this, as I may be missing something or just being a bit unfair in my critique of these picks. Thanks.

 

I think if you look at the drafts from those 2nd and 3rd rounds you are going to see most teams miss more than they hit. I would like to see Elias take more high school players in the top 5 rounds since he's had pretty good success (Gunnar, Hernaiz, Mayo), but if you look at those rounds you can see lots of HS busts as well. 

 Elias has obviously hit pretty well, but he's going to miss more than he hits because that's just the nature of the draft.

[glenn__davis]

A lot of guys on that list have also just had a very hard time staying healthy.  Haskin has done some good things but missed a lot of time.  Servideo missed a lot of time.  Ardoin actually has had a decent career so far for a 4th rounder.

Reed Trimble is another guy that just can't stay on the field.  Looks like he made it about 2 weeks this year before going on the IL yet again.  Not sure what the injury is (yes RZ I did google it :))

[Just Regular]

A lot of it hasn't been his fault, but the sand does feel mostly out of the hourglass for Haskin becoming a $2 million draft pool dollar total loss.

To be clear, Elias' team's overall success rate has been Stephen Curry levels of brilliant such that it looks fairly likely today the 2023-2030 Orioles will run circles around the other 29 Clubs at position player WAR, so searching for an expensive bust is kind of a humblebrag parlor game.

[RZNJ]

On 5/29/2024 at 5:35 PM, Greg Pappas said:

@Tony-OHThis is a tough question to preface, but would it be fair in your estimation to say the following players have either been disappointing as Top 5 Round draft picks (2019-2022), or at least unlikely to ever be productive major leaguers? 

• Zach Watson (2019 3rd round) No longer with the organization?
• Hudson Haskin (2020 2nd round)
• Anthony Servideo (2020 3rd round)
• Reed Trimble (2021 2nd round)
• John Rhoades (2021 3rd round)
• Donta Williams (2021 4th round)
• Max Wagner (2022 2nd round)
• Silas Ardoin (2022 4th round)

To be clear, I love what Elias has done as GM.  I have, however, noticed a pattern of his taking college bats after Round 1 that have mostly not amounted to much. 
From 2019, 2nd rounder Kyle Stowers has made it to the big leagues, though he's not that highly considered.  Still, a solid 2nd round pick and one that could play in the league for some years to come as a reserve. 
Also from 2019 is 4th rounder Joey Ortiz, who was a great pick that helped us net Corbin Burnes.
I thought about including Jud Fabian, a 2022 2nd rounder, but feel there is still hope he'll be able to contribute.

I'd much prefer to see higher upside HS bats get more in the mix in these early rounds.

Anyway, I'd love your input on this, as I may be missing something or just being a bit unfair in my critique of these picks. Thanks.

 

Almost seems like you read my post in the draft section on Wednesday afternoon.

”Fair point.  Stowers, Watson, Ortiz, Trimble, Rhodes, Donta Williams, Haskin, Servideo, Fabian, Wagner, Ardoin,  are all college position players taken in rounds 2-4.   Maybe Stowers and Fabian carve out a part time role as ML players.   We’ve done well at the top of the draft with this demographic but Ortiz is the only college position player after round that looks like starting material.  The two best of this group, Ortiz and Stowers were taken back in 2019.   We haven’t done so well since then.”

The 2023 draft will be interesting to follow.  Horvath is a power guy off to a bad start.  They went with more pitching with Baumeister and Lord and went with a bunch of guys who could play CF.”

[RZNJ]

23 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

A lot of guys on that list have also just had a very hard time staying healthy.  Haskin has done some good things but missed a lot of time.  Servideo missed a lot of time.  Ardoin actually has had a decent career so far for a 4th rounder.

Reed Trimble is another guy that just can't stay on the field.  Looks like he made it about 2 weeks this year before going on the IL yet again.  Not sure what the injury is (yes RZ I did google it :))

Glenn, you’re a very good poster but apparently a bad Googler.  No problemo.  This was reported April 26.

Injuries: MASN’s Steve Melewski reported that Bowie’s Zach Peek (right shoulder inflammation) and Aberdeen’s Reed Trimble (right hamstring discomfort) were both placed on the injured list yesterday.

[Greg Pappas]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Almost seems like you read my post in the draft section on Wednesday afternoon.

”Fair point.  Stowers, Watson, Ortiz, Trimble, Rhodes, Donta Williams, Haskin, Servideo, Fabian, Wagner, Ardoin,  are all college position players taken in rounds 2-4.   Maybe Stowers and Fabian carve out a part time role as ML players.   We’ve done well at the top of the draft with this demographic but Ortiz is the only college position player after round that looks like starting material.  The two best of this group, Ortiz and Stowers were taken back in 2019.   We haven’t done so well since then.”

The 2023 draft will be interesting to follow.  Horvath is a power guy off to a bad start.  They went with more pitching with Baumeister and Lord and went with a bunch of guys who could play CF.”

I hadn't read that, but it seems we are thinking similar things.   

[Tony-OH]

Updated with lots of movement.

[emmett16]

@Tony-OH Luis Almeyda keeps steadily rising?  What am I missing?  I saw he had a pretty good last week of May.  Leads me To believe that maybe you e heard something about him from one of your sources.  

[emmett16]

Glad to see Stiven Acevedo make the list!  I have high hopes for him.  He’s been on a heater and his numbers are starting to garner some attention.  

[Tony-OH]

55 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

@Tony-OH Luis Almeyda keeps steadily rising?  What am I missing?  I saw he had a pretty good last week of May.  Leads me To believe that maybe you e heard something about him from one of your sources.  

More like other guys keep falling. lol

He's been doing ok overall of late and I've heard the tools are good, but we'll see. He has not been overly impressive so far in his pro career but he's still young. 

[Tony-OH]

52 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Glad to see Stiven Acevedo make the list!  I have high hopes for him.  He’s been on a heater and his numbers are starting to garner some attention.  

Acevedo has been my under dog guy for a bit. He just looks like a ball player and has some nice tools, but he needs to keep this hot streak going and add some power.

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

More like other guys keep falling. lol

He's been doing ok overall of late and I've heard the tools are good, but we'll see. He has not been overly impressive so far in his pro career but he's still young. 

Thanks.  I was hoping you weren’t going to say that but had a feeling that was the case. 
 

Agree on Acevedo - he looks the part.  You can’t teach his size and speed and athleticism.  I hope he keeps it up.  

[btdart20]

32 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

More like other guys keep falling. lol

He's been doing ok overall of late and I've heard the tools are good, but we'll see. He has not been overly impressive so far in his pro career but he's still young. 

I was going tonask the general trend in the muddled middle too...