Tyler Wells 2024

[CaptainRedbeard]

Really encouraging first start overall, he started with too many fastballs but ended up with a really good pitch mix and used the changeup a lot. I think that’s key for Wells, his changeup is his best pitch IMO and he could benefit from fewer fastballs/cutters. 

Early returns on Stuff+ are a nice bounceback, Wells used to grade very well by that metric but has been trending in the wrong direction each year. He graded 101 on the fastball despite the same velo as last year when it was 93, by the Statcast data looks like it may have been from adding some horizontal movement without sacrificing any vertical movement or spin.

[interloper]

Wells is one of my favorite guys on the team, so it's been a particular bummer watching him get off to this kind of start to the season.

Through 3 games: 5.87 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 4.68 FIP. 

His FIP is usually on the high side, so are we finally seeing some regression? His velo also looks down (quite a few fastballs at 91) and he isn't exhibiting the good control we're used to from him, although his walks are actually down. His home run rate is about the same as last year. 

There is also a stark difference so far in his statcast page 2023 vs  2024. Obviously small sample though. 

Anyone seeing any light at the end of the tunnel here? Overall it's a pretty worrying picture he's painting. I would even go as far as to say he looks pretty much how he looked when he got a dead arm in the middle of last year. 

Edited April 15 by interloper

[btdart20]

Strand rate is 59.5%.  Probably trend towards up.

BABIP against is about .100 higher than career norms.  

HH% and pull% are higher than norm in the SSS.

Looks like the 4S getting hit a bit.  Maybe they're ambushing him or a sequencing issue.

Nick Pollack is still a believer.

 

[Moose Milligan]

27 minutes ago, interloper said:

Wells is one of my favorite guys on the team, so it's been a particular bummer watching him get off to this kind of start to the season.

Through 3 games: 5.87 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 4.68 FIP. 

His FIP is usually on the high side, so are we finally seeing some regression? His velo also looks down (quite a few fastballs at 91) and he isn't exhibiting the good control we're used to from him, although his walks are actually down. His home run rate is about the same as last year. 

There is also a stark difference so far in his statcast page 2023 vs  2024. Obviously small sample though. 

Anyone seeing any light at the end of the tunnel here? Overall it's a pretty worrying picture he's painting. I would even go as far as to say he looks pretty much how he looked when he got a dead arm in the middle of last year. 

Would hope that he'd come out of the gates charging, but it's been the opposite.  

I hope that we're not seeing a regression here but he's always struck me as a guy who didn't have much to regress to...not a high velo guy, so losing a tick or two off the fastball is going to be very hard for him.  

Too early to tell, but the early returns are not good and not encouraging.  

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Would hope that he'd come out of the gates charging, but it's been the opposite.  

I hope that we're not seeing a regression here but he's always struck me as a guy who didn't have much to regress to...not a high velo guy, so losing a tick or two off the fastball is going to be very hard for him.  

Too early to tell, but the early returns are not good and not encouraging.  

Wells needs to be in the bullpen where he can hopefully show a little more velocity.   I think they really need to acquire another starter.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, clapdiddy said:

Wells needs to be in the bullpen where he can hopefully show a little more velocity.   I think they really need to acquire another starter.

Yeah, they do but they're gonna wait until they see what they have with Means and Bradish before they do that.  Elias won't part with prospects unless he feels that he absolutely has to.

 

[clapdiddy]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, they do but they're gonna wait until they see what they have with Means and Bradish before they do that.  Elias won't part with prospects unless he feels that he absolutely has to.

 

I dunno about you, but I don't have a good feeling about either one of those guys contributing this year.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, clapdiddy said:

I dunno about you, but I don't have a good feeling about either one of those guys contributing this year.

I don't have a good feeling about either one of them at all.  

[DirtyBird]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Elias won't part with prospects unless he feels that he absolutely has to.

Have any teams decided they are sellers yet, and willing to part with a decent starter?

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Have any teams decided they are sellers yet, and willing to part with a decent starter?

Another good point, though the White Sox, Rockies and Marlins should just give up now.  

[RZNJ]

25 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Wells needs to be in the bullpen where he can hopefully show a little more velocity.   I think they really need to acquire another starter.

His fastball velocity, 92.5 is exactly the same as last year, when he led AL starters in WHIP for 3 months.

[RZNJ]

23 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Have any teams decided they are sellers yet, and willing to part with a decent starter?

You’re expecting an answer?

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

His fastball velocity, 92.5 is exactly the same as last year, when he led AL starters in WHIP for 3 months.

Good to know. I didn't recall so many 91s last year, but it's probably because he was just pitching better. Hopefully it's just an early season funk that he snaps out of. 

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

You’re expecting an answer?

No. It is a rhetorical question. We will not be seeing any deals for another 3 months.

[sportsfan8703]

Did some Twitter digging for an update.