Austin Hays 2024

[Sports Guy]

Hays is fine. Glad he’s on the team. 

But some fans and the organization believe he is something that he’s not.

This mini slump is meaningless, as Frobby stated.

[baltimoriole]

43 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The time to do something would have been the offseason when he could have been traded.  Elias is not going to tell Hyde to sit Hays to crater his trade value.  The only way for Hays to get off the team is to be good but not great or to be,absolutely horrible.  Batting .100 with no power horrible over a couple of months.  If he's too good, O's will keep him till end of year.

I just don’t think he had any trade value. Like next to none. What teams out there are looking for a very average at everything corner outfielder? There’s a reason he’s a bottom of the order player and every other GM knows this. Last year he was marginally better than Adam Frazier.
 

Put another way. If you were a team that had a Kyle Stowers or Colten Cowser in your organization, are you giving up prospects and blocking your young players to have Hays hit 7th in your line up? I suppose most people would find that irrational.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, baltimoriole said:

I just don’t think he had any trade value. Like next to none. What teams out there are looking for a very average at everything corner outfielder? There’s a reason he’s a bottom of the order player and every other GM knows this. Last year he was marginally better than Adam Frazier.
 

Put another way. If you were a team that had a Kyle Stowers or Colten Cowser in your organization, are you giving up prospects and blocking your young players to have Hays hit 7th in your line up? I suppose most people would find that irrational.

Frazier had a combined 2.0 fWAR and rWAR.

Hays had a combined 4.7 fWAR and rWAR.

He was more than marginally better.

Even if you just went by rWAR, it's 2.5 to 1.7.

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

He did turn it around the last 5ish weeks of the season.

But he’s not an everyday player and the Os have to stop treating him as one.

That’s the biggest thing. And it’s not just Hays, they do the same thing with Mountcastle and Mullins. The unwillingness to find ABs for young players is baffling. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

That’s the biggest thing. And it’s not just Hays, they do the same thing with Mountcastle and Mullins. The unwillingness to find ABs for young players is baffling. 

Perhaps when you’re winning 101 games you don’t screw with what’s working?   I guess if this year goes much worse than last year did, you’ll see them trying to shake it up more.  

[G54377]

Hays is the most logical odd man out. We'd love to keep everyone, but that's a worse decision. Mullins CF defense, and Santander's switch hitting power profile I'd rather keep. Hays isn't even that much better against LHP than RHP, which would be a more clear reason to keep him around. Things would really open up for the younger guys if he was traded. It probably would have needed to happen in the offseason though. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Perhaps when you’re winning 101 games you don’t screw with what’s working?   I guess if this year goes much worse than last year did, you’ll see them trying to shake it up more.  

It’s silly to think that because you won a lot of games that things can’t be done better. 
 

You could win less games and be a far better team at the end of the year…which is my personal expectation for this year vs last year.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, G54377 said:

Hays is the most logical odd man out. We'd love to keep everyone, but that's a worse decision. Mullins CF defense, and Santander's switch hitting power profile I'd rather keep. Hays isn't even that much better against LHP than RHP, which would be a more clear reason to keep him around. Things would really open up for the younger guys if he was traded. It probably would have needed to happen in the offseason though. 

Well the most logical odd man out would be OHearn.

That being said, no one has to be an odd man out. You just need to stop treating these guys like they should play everyday.

The Os have one player who is an everyday guy…Gunnar.  That’s it.

[Sanfran327]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

That’s the biggest thing. And it’s not just Hays, they do the same thing with Mountcastle and Mullins. The unwillingness to find ABs for young players is baffling. 

Of those 3 players, only one has a platoon mate that I care about, and that's Cowser for Hays. O'Hearn is just RH Mountcastle-lite, and I'm not sure who Ced's backup is to be completely honest now that McKenna is gone. So who is on the roster that you're advocating for? Or is that the real question?

They're in a tough spot with Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, and O'Hearn. None are all that great (though all can go on white hot streaks), and none are near bad enough to just cut bait. Doesn't seem like any of them would bring a lot back in a trade, and I'm not really sure who would replace any of them at this exact moment. 

[OriolesMagic83]

6 minutes ago, baltimoriole said:

I just don’t think he had any trade value. Like next to none. What teams out there are looking for a very average at everything corner outfielder? There’s a reason he’s a bottom of the order player and every other GM knows this. Last year he was marginally better than Adam Frazier.
 

Put another way. If you were a team that had a Kyle Stowers or Colten Cowser in your organization, are you giving up prospects and blocking your young players to have Hays hit 7th in your line up? I suppose most people would find that irrational.

Hays is above average defensively and pretty much an average offensive LF.  I believe Frobby did an in depth analysis of him in the offseason.  Lots of O's teams don't have even an average LF.  Memories of teams in the 2000's and 2010's trotting out the likes of Jack Cust, Larry Bigbie, Jay Gibbons, Jay Payton, and Felix Pie (I forgot he was a LF regular, some things you just block out). 

I'm not sold on Stowers being able to hit MLB pitching, although he deserves a chance. 

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

It’s silly to think that because you won a lot of games that things can’t be done better. 
 

You could win less games and be a far better team at the end of the year…which is my personal expectation for this year vs last year.

It’s human nature to not mess much with what’s working.   And generally, with good reason.  There’s upside to changing it up, but also downside.  And anyway it’s not like everything has stayed exactly the same.  But much has.  

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s human nature to not mess much with what’s working.   And generally, with good reason.  There’s upside to changing it up, but also downside.  And anyway it’s not like everything has stayed exactly the same.  But much has.  

So why put Cowser on the team and not McKenna?  If you aren’t going to “change it up”, why do that?

Why not bring back Frazier too?  I mean, we won 101 games with him!

[Frobby]

 

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well the most logical odd man out would be OHearn.

That being said, no one has to be an odd man out. You just need to stop treating these guys like they should play everyday.

The Os have one player who is an everyday guy…Gunnar.  That’s it.

How literal are you being about “everyday guy?”   Hays started 135 games last year.  That’s about 83%.   You have 3 outfielders doing that, it leaves 50% for somebody else.   Honestly that sounds pretty reasonable to me.   Start there and tweak a little depending on circumstances.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

 

How literal are you being about “everyday guy?”   Hays started 135 games last year.  That’s about 83%.   You have 3 outfielders doing that, it leaves 50% for somebody else.   Honestly that sounds pretty reasonable to me.   Start there and tweak a little depending on circumstances.  

I think that’s too many games for Hays.

I would say Hays should get 350-450 at bats and he would come in for defense often as well.

 

[waroriole]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Perhaps when you’re winning 101 games you don’t screw with what’s working?   I guess if this year goes much worse than last year did, you’ll see them trying to shake it up more.  

Yes, I know, how dare we question anything. They won 101 last year.