Colton Cowser 2024

[Too Tall]

To change the subject - Cowser is not just an Oriole rookie - he's become Mooore. A semi cult hero with his own cheering section. It's hard enough to adjust to the major leagues without that added pressure. I too would like to see more consistency. But he is a rookie with a lot going on around him right now. Add in his personality which to his credit seems to have remained consistent through all of this. I love it when he has days like today and I suspect we all do. 

This board does criticism very well. And that is fair. Particularly when it is backed up by statistics. And, Cowser is by far not the only recipient. I've said before and I'll repeat - I believe Cowser is going to be a better than average baseball player at the major league level. That's just my opinion, however. I particularly appreciate that he has kept his personality through this adjustment time. That says a lot about him as a person. And I really like Cowser and Westberg back-to-back. The goof ball and straight man and they are our Orioles! They are also human beings trying to do something none of us posters could ever do except in our dreams. 

On to New York!

[Moose Milligan]

I don’t think anyone hates Cowser. Or dislikes him. 
 

Criticism and pointing out flaws in someone’s game aren’t negatives. For me, Cowser has been one of the pleasant surprises of this year, but he does have his warts. He strikes out a lot and he looks prone to being in nasty slumps. 
 

That doesn’t mean I hate the guy or I’m negative about him, but some struggle with nuance. 
 

You can see where he can become a very good hitter and his defense is excellent. 

[Frobby]

I want to say, I thought the single he pulled on a good FB in on his hands was as impressive as the long homer he hit on a center cut FB.  Getting to those pitches in on the hands is tough.  

Like I said though, I’d like to see more progress on change-ups and breaking stuff.  
 

[SilverRocket]

I think Cowser has flaws, but I don't think you can claim his April was just unsustainable luck while his May/June were exactly reflected by the OPS. You have to include the whole sample, which right now is a .768 OPS. Given the hard-hit rates and exit velocities I think he mostly needed a tweak, and to figure out what to do with changeups.

[emmett16]

Cowser needs PAs & experience.  He’s a stud.  He needs to play everyday with an occasional rest day. 

[Sports Guy]

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

I think Cowser has flaws, but I don't think you can claim his April was just unsustainable luck while his May/June were exactly reflected by the OPS. You have to include the whole sample, which right now is a .768 OPS. Given the hard-hit rates and exit velocities I think he mostly needed a tweak, and to figure out what to do with changeups.

More and more, I’m hating the use of the term “luck” any time wOBA and xwOBA are significantly different.  You hit a lofted ball 380 feet within 10 degrees of the RF line, it’s a homer.  You hit a lofted fly ball 380 feet within 10 degrees of dead center, it’s an out.   Nothing lucky about it.   And xwOBA doesn’t account for the direction the ball is hit.   

For me, there was nothing that lucky about Cowser’s early performance or his more recent performance.  The big difference, I think, is that opposing teams have identified his weaknesses, and he hasn’t successfully adjusted - yet.   Will he be able to adjust?   That remains to be seen. 
 

[ScGO's]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Basically if he can cut down on a little bit of the swing and miss in his game, he could become a perennial allstar

[CP0861]

Look at Gunnar and Adley around this same point (94 games)....their numbers are all relatively comparable.

Edited June 17 by CP0861

[Rbiggs2525]

So far his track record is being a streaky hitter with elite tools. He was streaky in the minors at certain stops as well. The Orioles roster is made up with these type of players besides maybe, Gunnar, Westburg and Adley. Mountcastle, Santander, Hays, Mateo, Urias, Mullins all are type of players that get very hot or ice cold. It sort of complements itself. Where Mounty has been ice cold and Santander has been crushing the ball. Then a few weeks it could be completely opposite.

[Rbiggs2525]

People should also remember the JD Martinez quote from this season. He was a late signing for the Mets and they started him in triple A. He said to call him up because he will not learn anything there. You don’t see real velocity often there. That is part of the reason the prospects struggle at first.

[Flash- bd]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

More and more, I’m hating the use of the term “luck” any time wOBA and xwOBA are significantly different.  You hit a lofted ball 380 feet within 10 degrees of the RF line, it’s a homer.  You hit a lofted fly ball 380 feet within 10 degrees of dead center, it’s an out.   Nothing lucky about it.   And xwOBA doesn’t account for the direction the ball is hit.   

For me, there was nothing that lucky about Cowser’s early performance or his more recent performance.  The big difference, I think, is that opposing teams have identified his weaknesses, and he hasn’t successfully adjusted - yet.   Will he be able to adjust?   That remains to be seen. 
 

Do players really have that much control of direction? I definitely think there's a major variance factor in that. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Do players really have that much control of direction? I definitely think there's a major variance factor in that. 

Do players have much more control over launch angle than they do over direction?  I don’t think so.  

[Flash- bd]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Do players have much more control over launch angle than they do over direction?  I don’t think so.  

Yeah, I dunno, it's a debate that goes past my (limited) technical baseball knowledge, honestly. But I'd bet there's an important variance factor in launch angle too. My intuition would be that barrel rate and exit velocity are the factors that more eliminate the noise and variance. 

[Sydnor]

36 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Yeah, I dunno, it's a debate that goes past my (limited) technical baseball knowledge, honestly. But I'd bet there's an important variance factor in launch angle too. My intuition would be that barrel rate and exit velocity are the factors that more eliminate the noise and variance. 

This is a very good article that can be summed up as pulling the ball in the air is the best thing a hitter can do. It’s why some guys like Isaac Paredes, Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado, and even Anthony Santander (to a degree) can outperform their expected numbers, and one of several reasons why xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, etc. aren’t predictive.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-meandering-examination-of-fly-ball-pull-rate-featuring-stars-of-the-game-and-also-isaac-paredes/

Edited June 17 by Sydnor