Prospect Trade Value

[ThisIsBirdland]

With ST and the hot early season start for some of the O's non top-100 prospects (Stowers, Norby, Povich, McDermott), is it too early to speculate on whether their value is increasing enough to be major components in a trade for a high end SP later this season?

Rosenthal has already speculated that the Marlins could become sellers sooner rather than later: 

 

Put another way, would you trade those four players for three seasons of Luzardo today? Would the Marlins entertain it or demand a top-5 player be included?

[jamalshw]

4 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

With ST and the hot early season start for some of the O's non top-100 prospects (Stowers, Norby, Povich, McDermott), is it too early to speculate on whether their value is increasing enough to be major components in a trade for a high end SP later this season?

Rosenthal has already speculated that the Marlins could become sellers sooner rather than later: 

 

Put another way, would you trade those four players for three seasons of Luzardo today? Would the Marlins entertain it or demand a top-5 player be included?

All four of them is a bit steep for me. But Norby and Stowers appear blocked beyond belief for the Orioles. And I would include Povich or McDermott in the deal, not sure I'd do both. But a rotation of Burnes, Grayson and Luzardo is a great top-3 even if Bradish is out for the year. 

[LarryBigbie]

This is a great thread/topic that I've been stewing on for a while and actually want to respond to as more of a casual reader on here. 

To me, the guys who eventually become trade bait in Norfolk are both Norby and Stowers. I'm apprehensive on Norby because going back to ECU he has always raked, but to the point above, he's blocked - right? What is his ceiling and or comp? Is Chris Taylor a stretch? That's the kind of guy you want around for both the clubhouse and a stretch run. He's a winner who can play multiple positions and will ultimately always hit (we think). How much do we lose with him in LF compared to the likes of a Hays?

Have we seen enough from Stowers at the Major League level? I would venture to say no. Will he ever have a higher trade value? I'd also venture to say no.

In my opinion, the untouchables beyond the obvious of Holliday are Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo, and all three of the arms (McDermott, Povich, Johnson). But that leads us to the problem of - where do they actually play when the time comes?

Mountcastle's defense has always been solid and beyond underappreciated. His plate discipline this year (small sample) is better than ever. His value in the clubhouse goes beyond words. He looks like a guy playing on fire and playing for an extension. How can we replace him with Mayo at 1B or Basallo next year when he's hopefully ready. 

If we don't extend Tony, then Kjerstad is the plug and play in RF. His natural power I think is equal to or possibly even greater than Tony's, although you lose the opportunity to slot a right handed hitting outfield in the lineup with him - something we don't have much of beyond Hays and possible Norby. I don't think we can overlook the importance of that. 

It's to the point for me where it's almost comical at times that we want to promote, promote, promote - but in exchange for who? Where do they play? Trust me, I want to see all these guys ASAP - but what does it do to our defense? An outfield of Norby-Cowser-Kjerstad is possible, but do we then realize just how solid Hays and Mullins really are? Then you enter Bradfield into the equation in two years and now what?

Where I pause it that this is a great problem to have, but don't think for a second that other GM's don't also realize where things stand for us. Mateo, Urias, Hays, Mullins - sure we can move on, but for what? I truly don't know what direction we go, but I trust Mike Elias and his track record. Sorry for the long ramble but we are certainly blessed for the first time in a long time, and I, like everyone else want to see the same thing - the moves required to bring a World Series back home! 

Edited April 4 by LarryBigbie

[ThisIsBirdland]

Ooph, maybe one more nail in the Marlins coffin.

[Just Regular]

Bummer for the Marlins and for baseball.

I do think Peter Bendix being properly Raysian will move a bunch of guys while Sandy and Eury hopefully both heal well.

Luzardo, Scott and Arraez are all players it isn't hard to imagine the Sigbot having some taste for.

[baltfan]

It may be time for the Orioles to potentially trade one of the guys that is blocking others vs those that are blocked.  By that I mean that guys that are blocked are naturally going to have less value to other teams.  They recognize Norby or Stowers are blocked, so they will seek a discount.  Instead, maybe the Orioles should concede to shop Cowser or Kjerstad.  The increase in their trade value might mitigate the delta in their talent vs. Norby or Stowwers.  

[RZNJ]

Norby, Stowers, McDermott, Povich for Luzardo is a no brainer from the Orioles side.  Slim chance either Povich or McDermott become Luzardo and Norby and Stowers are not even within our top 5 guys.

Not sure who the Marlins would want.

[Spy Fox]

15 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Ooph, maybe one more nail in the Marlins coffin.

Ouch. And they innings limited him last year pretty intentionally. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Spy Fox said:

Ouch. And they innings limited him last year pretty intentionally. 

No evidence it helps.

[Sanfran327]

57 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

All four of them is a bit steep for me. But Norby and Stowers appear blocked beyond belief for the Orioles. And I would include Povich or McDermott in the deal, not sure I'd do both. But a rotation of Burnes, Grayson and Luzardo is a great top-3 even if Bradish is out for the year. 

I don't like to think of it in terms of the price being too high for 1 guy, even if it is by a little bit. We only have 26 roster spots, and we have a lot of good players. I'd prefer to trade 4 guys that might not have a future here for 1 guy that is basically an ace. Every spot on our roster has to count from here on. There's more value in volume for Miami than there is for us at this point.

[dystopia]

12 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Ouch. And they innings limited him last year pretty intentionally. 

So much for that theory. 

[jamalshw]

2 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

I don't like to think of it in terms of the price being too high for 1 guy, even if it is by a little bit. We only have 26 roster spots, and we have a lot of good players. I'd prefer to trade 4 guys that might not have a future here for 1 guy that is basically an ace. Every spot on our roster has to count from here on. There's more value in volume for Miami than there is for us at this point.

Sure, I get that point, but I am not convinced there is no roster spot here for Povich or McDermott. Sure, it's hard to see the path for Norby given Henderson, Holliday, Mayo, and Westburg on the infield. And it's hard to find the spot for Stowers with Mullins, Santander and Hays right now and Cowser and Kjerstad both ahead of him. 

I also don't know that I agree with the idea of trading away 4 guys just because there is no spot for 1 when you can get away with dealing less value (even if we don't have the spot). Value is value and if you don't have a spot for it, we can always trade that in a different deal for additional pieces, either lower level minor leaguers or relief pitching.

Guys like Norby and Stowers, unfortunately, for them are nothing more than collateral for the team at the moment. Just because I have the money to burn to buy something I want, doesn't mean I should burn it if I can get it (or something comparable) for less. 

All that said, it'll be interesting to see what moves we make midseason. We certainly have the pieces for it and it is getting to the point now that holding on to them is starting to hurt their value given their ages (particularly in the case of Stowers).

[foxfield]

2 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

I don't like to think of it in terms of the price being too high for 1 guy, even if it is by a little bit. We only have 26 roster spots, and we have a lot of good players. I'd prefer to trade 4 guys that might not have a future here for 1 guy that is basically an ace. Every spot on our roster has to count from here on. There's more value in volume for Miami than there is for us at this point.

Im ok if there is a small overpay.  Certainly for an ace.  But just because we don't have room for people is no reason to just send em all at once.  We still might want another pitcher or reliever or bat somewhere down the road.

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

No evidence it helps.

 

2 hours ago, dystopia said:

So much for that theory. 

You have to stay in the “sweet spot” 

https://www.scienceforsport.com/acutechronic-workload-ratio/
 

I’d be a little nervous trading with Marlins, seems their pitchers do down with injuries fairly regularly.  Whatever they are doing isn’t working. 

[EddeeEddee]

3 hours ago, LarryBigbie said:

This is a great thread/topic that I've been stewing on for a while and actually want to respond to as more of a casual reader on here. 

To me, the guys who eventually become trade bait in Norfolk are both Norby and Stowers. I'm apprehensive on Norby because going back to ECU he has always raked, but to the point above, he's blocked - right? What is his ceiling and or comp? Is Chris Taylor a stretch? That's the kind of guy you want around for both the clubhouse and a stretch run. He's a winner who can play multiple positions and will ultimately always hit (we think). How much do we lose with him in LF compared to the likes of a Hays?

Have we seen enough from Stowers at the Major League level? I would venture to say no. Will he ever have a higher trade value? I'd also venture to say no.

In my opinion, the untouchables beyond the obvious of Holliday are Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo, and all three of the arms (McDermott, Povich, Johnson). But that leads us to the problem of - where do they actually play when the time comes?

Mountcastle's defense has always been solid and beyond underappreciated. His plate discipline this year (small sample) is better than ever. His value in the clubhouse goes beyond words. He looks like a guy playing on fire and playing for an extension. How can we replace him with Mayo at 1B or Basallo next year when he's hopefully ready. 

If we don't extend Tony, then Kjerstad is the plug and play in RF. His natural power I think is equal to or possibly even greater than Tony's, although you lose the opportunity to slot a right handed hitting outfield in the lineup with him - something we don't have much of beyond Hays and possible Norby. I don't think we can overlook the importance of that. 

It's to the point for me where it's almost comical at times that we want to promote, promote, promote - but in exchange for who? Where do they play? Trust me, I want to see all these guys ASAP - but what does it do to our defense? An outfield of Norby-Cowser-Kjerstad is possible, but do we then realize just how solid Hays and Mullins really are? Then you enter Bradfield into the equation in two years and now what?

Where I pause it that this is a great problem to have, but don't think for a second that other GM's don't also realize where things stand for us. Mateo, Urias, Hays, Mullins - sure we can move on, but for what? I truly don't know what direction we go, but I trust Mike Elias and his track record. Sorry for the long ramble but we are certainly blessed for the first time in a long time, and I, like everyone else want to see the same thing - the moves required to bring a World Series back home! 

I think the only untouchables are Holliday and Basallo.  I don't think Kjerstad is untouchable and I'm pretty certain McDermott, Povich and Johnson are not.  I question if Mayo is untouchable too because of his weak defense so far. But I think the only way the O's trade Mayo is for a bonafide hitting star such as, say, Luis Arraez or even better, Luis Robert.  Still, it's hard to see Mayo getting traded.

Assuming the O's would be trading for a starter they could also trade Irvin or maybe Kremer.  Wells could maybe get traded considering his durability issues, but it's hard to see that happening.  

Luzardo would be a great trade target.  The O's have the pieces to trade for him -- maybe Arraez too since he can play third base.  I hope they make it happen.