Are we worried about MLB-worst walk rate?

[dzorange]

12 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

It's just a quibble over an imperative 'need'.  Would a higher walk rate help him?  All things being equal, absolutely.  But what if there's a trade off?  Maybe less aggressive swings lead to lower EV and less SLG?

That's sort of what happened last year. Gunnar got off to his slow start with a .189 AVG but had 17 BB in April. He then really hit well the rest of the year as he walked considerably less - a 7.3% clip.

That's part of the reason why I expect (and why I say needs) his walk rates to increase. He was a 12% walk rate kind of guy in the minors and in 132 PAs in 2022. He was an 18% walk rate guy last April. Clearly that's part of his DNA. What we saw in 2023 was a guy still developing at the plate. He was 22 years old.

Edited April 16 by dzorange

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, dzorange said:

That's sort of what happened last year. Gunnar got off to his slow start with a .189 AVG but had 17 BB in April. He then really hit well the rest of the year as he walked considerably less - a 7.3% clip.

That's part of the reason why I expect (and why I say needs) his walk rates to increase. He was a 12% walk rate kind of guy in the minors and in 132 PAs in 2022. He was an 18% walk rate guy last April. Clearly that's part of his DNA. What we saw in 2023 was a guy still developing at the plate. He was 22 years old.

And yet he struggled early while taking his walks.  I'm not saying you're wrong.  He could very well add BB% to his bag of tricks.  But if this is the best version of himself, then I still consider him elite.

[Hallas]

There's a little concern here.  We're 4th in the majors in chase rate at 30% and  7th in swing rate.  In particular, Adley has had a rough few weeks in terms of chasing, and he's dropped significantly in that regard compared to 2023.  It's early so it's tough to say whether it's cause for major concern, but it's worth keeping an eye on.  That being said, why waste time walking to first when home runs do the trick?

Edited April 16 by Hallas

[Brooks The Great]

Not concerned whatsoever. This is a lineup with several guys who are patient, especially Adley and Cowser. Going back to last season after Mountcastle came back from vertigo, he's now a much more patient hitter than he ever was before in his career. He used to be a pure hacker, like Austin Hays is. Mountcastle's improved approach and so many good, young, dangerous hitters like Gunnar, Cowser, and Westburg is going to lead to more walks.

I'm not a big O'Hearn fan because he's blocking Kjerstad, but he's a good hitter with a very good approach. Santander has also been slumping really badly. When he's seeing the ball well, he has a lot of at bats where he sees a lot of pitches and takes an occasional walk. Right now, he's an automatic out, but that won't last too much longer. Mullins draws walks when he's hitting well, which he is at the moment.

The Orioles faced a decent amount of good pitching over the first few series. That's also changing now. And it's a small sample size. The walks will definitely increase significantly. Too many good, patient hitters in this lineup. 

 

 

[DirtyBird]

1 hour ago, Hallas said:

There's a little concern here.  We're 4th in the majors in chase rate at 30% 

This is mainly because of Santander

[Can_of_corn]

They can't all be Mountcastle up there at the plate!

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, dzorange said:

The other poster brought up those other names.

But Gunnar ranked 20th in oWAR in 2023 with Baseball Reference and 21st in Offense with Fangraphs in 2023. If we're just going off of every player's 2023 season, then Gunnar didn't make my elite cutoff.

I'm surprised that of anything in my original reply, saying that Gunnar needs to improve his walk rate is what's creating a debate. Of the top 30 players in fWAR in 2023, the only ones who had a lower OBP were Witt and Robert Jr.

The thing is, Gunnar was walking a ton early last year (had 29 walks through May) and he wasn't hitting well.  Once he started being more aggressive his offense came online.

Do we want 17 walks with a 659 OPS or four walks with a 994?

It would be great if he could combine the two approaches, but if I have to pick one, I'll let him stay aggressive.

[Uli2001]

Update: the Orioles are 28 out of 30 teams in walks.

In the meantime, they are #1 in slugging, #1 in HRs, #2 in RBI, #3 in runs, and #3 in OPS (in all MLB).

Bizarre.

[Uli2001]

(Dodgers and NYY are #1 and #2 in walks.)

[Remember The Alomar]

5 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

Update: the Orioles are 28 out of 30 teams in walks.

In the meantime, they are #1 in slugging, #1 in HRs, #2 in RBI, #3 in runs, and #3 in OPS (in all MLB).

Bizarre.

Hitting ball hard good. 

[Hallas]

50 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

Update: the Orioles are 28 out of 30 teams in walks.

In the meantime, they are #1 in slugging, #1 in HRs, #2 in RBI, #3 in runs, and #3 in OPS (in all MLB).

Bizarre.

I guess the Orioles mantra this year is "why waste time walking to first when walking all the way around the bases will do the trick?"

[Moose Milligan]

Glad to see the walk rate getting slightly better over this stretch. 

[Uli2001]

If a team is not getting walks, they aren't elevating the opponent pitcher's pitch count. They are also having quicker innings and taxing their own pitchers.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Uli2001 said:

If a team is not getting walks, they aren't elevating the opponent pitcher's pitch count. They are also having quicker innings and taxing their own pitchers.

Why do you want to elevate the opposing pitcher's pitch count?

[EddeeEddee]

19 hours ago, Remember The Alomar said:

Hitting ball hard good. 

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