Beating Rose

[cmcgarvey]

Will anyone ever get as many hits as Pete (I should be in Hall of Fame despite bull:cussing:) Rose?

[Mark Carver]

Not in the next 10 years. Active hit leaders, with ages.

K Griffey, Jr (38) = 2680

D Jeter (34) = 2535

A Rodriguez (32) = 2404

M Ramirez (36) = 2392

G Anderson (36) = 2368

C Jones (36) = 2277

J Damon (34) = 2270

V Guerrero (32) = 2136

Rodriguez needs 1853, and he's been averaging about 175 hits per year for the last 5 years. He'd have do that for the next 10+ years. He'd probably retire before than.

[TyCobb]

Not in the next 10 years. Active hit leaders, with ages.

K Griffey, Jr (38) = 2680

D Jeter (34) = 2535

A Rodriguez (32) = 2404

M Ramirez (36) = 2392

G Anderson (36) = 2368

C Jones (36) = 2277

J Damon (34) = 2270

V Guerrero (32) = 2136

Rodriguez needs 1853, and he's been averaging about 175 hits per year for the last 5 years. He'd have do that for the next 10+ years. He'd probably retire before than.

He isn't suppose to retire until 42. Last year of his contract. Knowing A-rod he will play another 2 years if it means he would get another record. He has the money to pay teams to put him on a roster.

I don't see anyone doing it for a long time. Ichiro probably would have done it if he started his career in the Bigs.

[Migrant Redbird]

Rose averaged 177 hits per season over 24 seasons. His major league career began when he was 22 and he played until he was 45. Pete had a couple of "clunker" seasons at the end of his career -- 121, 107, 107, and 52 hits in his last 4 years -- but those were offset by 10 seasons in which he had over 200 hits.

In 2008, there were only 3 players with 200 hits or more: Ichiro, Pedroia, and Jose Reyes. Just 3!

Three factors will be required to break Rose's record:

(1) Begin at an early age -- at least by age 22 or 23. That probably rules out Ichiro, whose first ML season was at age 27. Pedroia came up to the majors at age 22 and was 23 in his rookie season. Reyes began at age 20, but last year was his first 200 hit season -- at age 25. Both are extreme long shots to catch Rose, because of the following necessary factors.

(2) A sustained high level of performance, with few serious injuries. If Ichiro had made the jump to MLB when he was younger, he'd have the best chance of any current player, since he's averaging over 225 hits per season. Ichiro has 2451 hits to go just to tie Rose, so he would need to play another 11 seasons hitting at that level, by which time he would be 45. I can envision Ichiro joining the other 27 players currently in the 3,000 hit club, but not catching up with Rose.

(3) The ability to stay healthy and play productively into the mid-forties, like Rose (45), Cobb (41), Aaron (42), Musial (42), Speaker (40), Yastremski (43), Cap Anson (45), Honus Wagner (43), and Eddie Collins (43). Those are the top ten all time hits leaders, and many of them began at age 18 or 19, yet Collins is almost 1,000 hits behind Rose.

This is like Gehrig's iron man record, which also seemed unbreakable until Ripken came along. It will require a very unusual player with a great deal of talent and an even higher level of luck.

Pujols is an intriguing candidate. He began young (21). He's been incredibly consistent (590-592 at bats in each of his first 5 seasons). He's sustained a high level of performance. Rose averaged 177 hits a year over 24 seasons; Pujols has had 177 hits or more in each of his 8 seasons to date and is averaging 191.

But, Pujols has only exceeded 200 hits once (212 in 2003). At his current average of 191 hits per season, he'd need to play at the same sustained high level until he is 42. The last 4 years, he's averaged 98 walks per season and it's going up. His odds are probably a little better than Ichiro's, but not good.

[TyCobb]

Rose averaged 177 hits per season over 24 seasons. His major league career began when he was 22 and he played until he was 45. Pete had a couple of "clunker" seasons at the end of his career -- 121, 107, 107, and 52 hits in his last 4 years -- but those were offset by 10 seasons in which he had over 200 hits.

In 2008, there were only 3 players with 200 hits or more: Ichiro, Pedroia, and Jose Reyes. Just 3!

Three factors will be required to break Rose's record:

(1) Begin at an early age -- at least by age 22 or 23. That probably rules out Ichiro, whose first ML season was at age 27. Pedroia came up to the majors at age 22 and was 23 in his rookie season. Reyes began at age 20, but last year was his first 200 hit season -- at age 25. Both are extreme long shots to catch Rose, because of the following necessary factors.

(2) A sustained high level of performance, with few serious injuries. If Ichiro had made the jump to MLB when he was younger, he'd have the best chance of any current player, since he's averaging over 225 hits per season. Ichiro has 2451 hits to go just to tie Rose, so he would need to play another 11 seasons hitting at that level, by which time he would be 45. I can envision Ichiro joining the other 27 players currently in the 3,000 hit club, but not catching up with Rose.

(3) The ability to stay healthy and play productively into the mid-forties, like Rose (45), Cobb (41), Aaron (42), Musial (42), Speaker (40), Yastremski (43), Cap Anson (45), Honus Wagner (43), and Eddie Collins (43). Those are the top ten all time hits leaders, and many of them began at age 18 or 19, yet Collins is almost 1,000 hits behind Rose.

This is like Gehrig's iron man record, which also seemed unbreakable until Ripken came along. It will require a very unusual player with a great deal of talent and an even higher level of luck.

Pujols is an intriguing candidate. He began young (21). He's been incredibly consistent (590-592 at bats in each of his first 5 seasons). He's sustained a high level of performance. Rose averaged 177 hits a year over 24 seasons; Pujols has had 177 hits or more in each of his 8 seasons to date and is averaging 191.

But, Pujols has only exceeded 200 hits once (212 in 2003). At his current average of 191 hits per season, he'd need to play at the same sustained high level until he is 42. The last 4 years, he's averaged 98 walks per season and it's going up. His odds are probably a little better than Ichiro's, but not good.

I was thinking Pujols and Cabrera, but they both walk way too much to have a chance.

[Boy Howdy]

Beat Pete?

Don't bet on it!

[Frobby]

I think it will be a very long time before that record is broken. Let me just add that Pete was so desperate to break Cobb's record that he played for several years as a below average player, something that most stars wouldn't do. He really shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath as Cobb.

[TyCobb]

I think it will be a very long time before that record is broken. Let me just add that Pete was so desperate to break Cobb's record that he played for several years as a below average player, something that most stars wouldn't do. He really shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath as Cobb.

I hope nobody is doing that?

[Lefty0315]

Don't overlook Carl Crawford. He is only 26 and already has 1111 hits. He doesn't take a lot of walks and has the speed to leg out infield singles and bunts that Pujols and Cabrera can't. He has been around 180 hits a season except for last year when he was hurt. If he can stay healthy he has to be included as a guy to watch.

[wickedwitch]

Let me just add that Pete was so desperate to break Cobb's record that he played for several years as a below average player, something that most stars wouldn't do.

Really? It seems to me that many former stars are willing to play well into their decline before retiring. It's much more rare to see players retire when they have something left ala Mussina.

[TyCobb]

Really? It seems to me that many former stars are willing to play well into their decline before retiring. It's much more rare to see players retire when they have something left ala Mussina.

Something left and one of your best seasons is completely different. Rose had a 61 OPS+ his last season. And wasn't that as a first baseman?

[Alphonse]

Ichiro probably would have done it if he started his career in the Bigs.

I think it's interesting to note that between the ages of 27 through 34 (Ichiro's time in the bigs), he's outhit Rose by a total of +157, almost an entire year of Rose's average/season in his career.

[lint06]

He really shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath as Cobb.

I wouldn't go so far as to say he shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath. The guy played for a long time at a high level, and hits-wise, he's at the same level. However, the rest of Cobb's stats (save HRs) are solidly superior to Rose's.

[TyCobb]

I wouldn't go so far as to say he shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath. The guy played for a long time at a high level, and hits-wise, he's at the same level. However, the rest of Cobb's stats (save HRs) are solidly superior to Rose's.

Cobb is in the highest level of HOFers.

Cobb played for a long time at a HOF level. He has a career OPS+ of 167 v Rose's 118. Rose never even had a season where he passed Cobb's career OPS+. Not even in the same breath.

[RShack]

Rose averaged 177 hits per season over 24 seasons.

Well, since you put it that way, IMO the answer is nope.