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Beating Rose


cmcgarvey

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Something left and one of your best seasons is completely different. Rose had a 61 OPS+ his last season. And wasn't that as a first baseman?

And for the two years before, Rose had an OPS+ of 99 each season, not too bad for a 43-44 year old.

Most of the great players put up some "substandard" seasons at the end of their career. Cobb is one of the few whose OPS+ never dipped below 100. Aaron had a 95 at age 41, posted a 102 the following season and then retired. Speaker had a 95 his last season, at the age of 40. Yastremski a 95 at age 41, then played 2 more seasons. Wagner a 92 at age 40, then played 3 more seasons. Molitor an 86 at the age of 40.

Eddie Collins only had a grand total of 42 at bats over his last 3 seasons, at the ages of 41-43. Willie Mays an 81 at the age of 42. Eddie Murray an 87 at the age of 40 and a 55 the following year.

Cal Ripken Jr. had an OPS+ below 100 in 7 of his last 10 seasons, beginning at age 31! He posted a 70 in his final season, at the age of 40.

Rickey Henderson's OPS+ was below 100 his last 5 seasons, at ages 39-43. It was 70 in his final season.

A few subpar years is more the norm than the rule. I don't see Rose as being any worse in this regard than your "average superstar". If there's any significant issue with Rose -- aside from his gambling -- it's that he was also his own manager in his last 3 seasons. However, I think you need to take into account what Rose's options besides himself were for playing 1st base that final year:

Nick Esasky - hit .230

Tony Perez's last year - ended up hitting .255 for the season, but didn't get above the Mendoza line until June 27th

Dave Conception - hit .260, but still played primarily shortstop and wasn't used significantly at 1st until September

Tracy Jones -- a rookie who hit hit .349, but was primarily a left fielder. Jones was apparently injured much of the season; after July 9th, he was out for 2 months and only used as a pinch runner the remainder of the season.

Yeah, there were better options for playing 1st base in 1986 than the 45-year-old Pete Rose; unfortunately none of those better options were on the Reds roster.

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And for the two years before, Rose had an OPS+ of 99 each season, not too bad for a 43-44 year old.

Most of the great players put up some "substandard" seasons at the end of their career. Cobb is one of the few whose OPS+ never dipped below 100. Aaron had a 95 at age 41, posted a 102 the following season and then retired. Speaker had a 95 his last season, at the age of 40. Yastremski a 95 at age 41, then played 2 more seasons. Wagner a 92 at age 40, then played 3 more seasons. Molitor an 86 at the age of 40.

Eddie Collins only had a grand total of 42 at bats over his last 3 seasons, at the ages of 41-43. Willie Mays an 81 at the age of 42. Eddie Murray an 87 at the age of 40 and a 55 the following year.

Cal Ripken Jr. had an OPS+ below 100 in 7 of his last 10 seasons, beginning at age 31! He posted a 70 in his final season, at the age of 40.

Rickey Henderson's OPS+ was below 100 his last 5 seasons, at ages 39-43. It was 70 in his final season.

You've sort of convinced me. I'll go so far as to say Rose's last few years weren't the biggest farce in the history of baseball.

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And for the two years before, Rose had an OPS+ of 99 each season, not too bad for a 43-44 year old.

Most of the great players put up some "substandard" seasons at the end of their career. Cobb is one of the few whose OPS+ never dipped below 100. Aaron had a 95 at age 41, posted a 102 the following season and then retired. Speaker had a 95 his last season, at the age of 40. Yastremski a 95 at age 41, then played 2 more seasons. Wagner a 92 at age 40, then played 3 more seasons. Molitor an 86 at the age of 40.

Eddie Collins only had a grand total of 42 at bats over his last 3 seasons, at the ages of 41-43. Willie Mays an 81 at the age of 42. Eddie Murray an 87 at the age of 40 and a 55 the following year.

Cal Ripken Jr. had an OPS+ below 100 in 7 of his last 10 seasons, beginning at age 31! He posted a 70 in his final season, at the age of 40.

Rickey Henderson's OPS+ was below 100 his last 5 seasons, at ages 39-43. It was 70 in his final season.

A few subpar years is more the norm than the rule. I don't see Rose as being any worse in this regard than your "average superstar". If there's any significant issue with Rose -- aside from his gambling -- it's that he was also his own manager in his last 3 seasons. However, I think you need to take into account what Rose's options besides himself were for playing 1st base that final year:

Nick Esasky - hit .230

Tony Perez's last year - ended up hitting .255 for the season, but didn't get above the Mendoza line until June 27th

Dave Conception - hit .260, but still played primarily shortstop and wasn't used significantly at 1st until September

Tracy Jones -- a rookie who hit hit .349, but was primarily a left fielder. Jones was apparently injured much of the season; after July 9th, he was out for 2 months and only used as a pinch runner the remainder of the season.

Yeah, there were better options for playing 1st base in 1986 than the 45-year-old Pete Rose; unfortunately none of those better options were on the Reds roster.

And the season before his 99s was a full season of OPS+ 69.

Your right though. I am just mad Cobb lost the hit record....

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Don't overlook Carl Crawford. He is only 26 and already has 1111 hits. He doesn't take a lot of walks and has the speed to leg out infield singles and bunts that Pujols and Cabrera can't. He has been around 180 hits a season except for last year when he was hurt. If he can stay healthy he has to be included as a guy to watch.

Crawford has a good chance to reach 3,000 hits, IMO. However he has basically zero chance of topping Pete Rose.

If Crawford averages 180 hits over the next 10 season, he will have 2,911 at the age of 36.

To reach 4,000 hits, Crawford would have to average 180 hits over the next 16 seasons. Sorry, it's not happening, IMO.

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Really? It seems to me that many former stars are willing to play well into their decline before retiring.

I was hoping Maddux would go after 400 W's. That would put him up there with Cy Young and Walter Johnson and nobody else. Cy quit in 1911 at age 44, Walter quit in 1927 at age 39. Maddux quit at age 42 when he was 45 W's shy of 400. If he got another 24, he'd have passed 5 guys to get 3rd-place for himself, but still shy of 400.

Maybe he could have, or maybe he couldn't. We'll never know. His ERA+ had dropped a tad below 100, but is ERA was not that much above 4.00. It's not like he was lousy. Maybe he knew something we don't, or maybe he didn't care about records much.

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Crawford has a good chance to reach 3,000 hits, IMO. However he has basically zero chance of topping Pete Rose.

If Crawford averages 180 hits over the next 10 season, he will have 2,911 at the age of 36.

To reach 4,000 hits, Crawford would have to average 180 hits over the next 16 seasons. Sorry, it's not happening, IMO.

He is on the same pace a Rose was entering the prime of his career. Will everything have to go right? Sure. Rose had to play until he was 45 and so will anyone else that is going to have a shot at the record. You can't count him out until he drops off the pace.

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Go here, use the Favorite Toy.

It's just an estimate, but Carl Crawford has something like a 0% chance of catching Rose, and an expected career total of less than 2400.

ARod's chance is also too low to measure by this method. Essentially zero. Pujols is in the same boat.

Ichiro, using his career hit total from both Japan and the US, has about a 37 percent chance.

I'm sure the only other active players with percentages >0 are very young, with very, very long ways to go. One of the big things hampering modern players from reaching career goals like this is the reluctance of teams to call players up at a very early age. Al Kaline got to 3000 hits just barely in no small part due to the fact he went straight from high school to the majors. Teams have become more risk averse and conservative, and even the best players usually spend 2-3 years in the minors.

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Go here, use the Favorite Toy.

It's just an estimate, but Carl Crawford has something like a 0% chance of catching Rose, and an expected career total of less than 2400.

ARod's chance is also too low to measure by this method. Essentially zero. Pujols is in the same boat.

Ichiro, using his career hit total from both Japan and the US, has about a 37 percent chance.

I'm sure the only other active players with percentages >0 are very young, with very, very long ways to go. One of the big things hampering modern players from reaching career goals like this is the reluctance of teams to call players up at a very early age. Al Kaline got to 3000 hits just barely in no small part due to the fact he went straight from high school to the majors. Teams have become more risk averse and conservative, and even the best players usually spend 2-3 years in the minors.

Thanks for the link.

I just typed in Markakis's numbers and he was projected to finsh at 2,123 hits. However it only estimates him playing nine more years.:confused: He was also given a 14.7% chance to reach 3,000 hits.

I personally would expect Markakis to play long after age 33.

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Thanks for the link.

I just typed in Markakis's numbers and he was projected to finsh at 2,123 hits. However it only estimates him playing nine more years.:confused: He was also given a 14.7% chance to reach 3,000 hits.

I personally would expect Markakis to play long after age 33.

Of course longevity is based mainly on quality of play and health. The Favorite Toy does kind of a rough guess on how much longer someone will play.

If you want a more results-based longevity prediction you can use something like Bill James' old Brock2 system. Still kind of rough, but it uses player production vs. league offensive levels to guesstimate how long a player will be able to play. I have a spreadsheet that does the Brock2 calculations, and Markakis is projected to end up with 2753 hits, and play at least a few games into his 40s.

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Go here, use the Favorite Toy.

It's just an estimate, but Carl Crawford has something like a 0% chance of catching Rose, and an expected career total of less than 2400.

ARod's chance is also too low to measure by this method. Essentially zero. Pujols is in the same boat.

Ichiro, using his career hit total from both Japan and the US, has about a 37 percent chance.

I'm sure the only other active players with percentages >0 are very young, with very, very long ways to go. One of the big things hampering modern players from reaching career goals like this is the reluctance of teams to call players up at a very early age. Al Kaline got to 3000 hits just barely in no small part due to the fact he went straight from high school to the majors. Teams have become more risk averse and conservative, and even the best players usually spend 2-3 years in the minors.

Thats is a nice link, however any results are pretty much meaningless. According to the calculations Rose had a zero percent chance after his age 26 season and he was only suppose to get 2428 hits.

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Thats is a nice link, however any results are pretty much meaningless. According to the calculations Rose had a zero percent chance after his age 26 season and he was only suppose to get 2428 hits.

Are you suggesting that was wrong? What do you think the chances were that a 26-year-old with 900 career hits would get another 3300 hits before he retired? When Pete Rose was 26 there were only five or six players in all of history who'd reached 3300 hits in their entire careers. Even an optimistic swag at Roses' chances of doing what he did would have been in the single digits.

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Are you suggesting that was wrong? What do you think the chances were that a 26-year-old with 900 career hits would get another 3300 hits before he retired? When Pete Rose was 26 there were only five or six players in all of history who'd reached 3300 hits in their entire careers. Even an optimistic swag at Roses' chances of doing what he did would have been in the single digits.

I am not suggesting it was wrong, just that it isn't the end all be all.

The idea of the thread seemed to be to talk about players that may have a chance to get close to the record. I took a look at the active players hits list and saw that Crawford was one of the youngest players with over 1000 hits. I never saw Rose play, but Crawford seems like he may be the same type of hitter. I was throwing his name out there as a player to watch and even admitted it was a long shot.

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I am not suggesting it was wrong, just that it isn't the end all be all.

The idea of the thread seemed to be to talk about players that may have a chance to get close to the record. I took a look at the active players hits list and saw that Crawford was one of the youngest players with over 1000 hits. I never saw Rose play, but Crawford seems like he may be the same type of hitter. I was throwing his name out there as a player to watch and even admitted it was a long shot.

Well, the problem is that you can't predict how long a player will play, specifically when it comes to going well into their forties.

So, Crawford could well play until he's 44-45 and come close or break the record, but the chances just of him playing that long are minuscule at best.

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