Draft Targets 2 Months Out

[forphase1]

It's just so hard from a fan perspective drafting this low.   I mean I love that we are since it reflects on the mlb team being good,  but it's much harder to keep up with the draft now.   In years past I'd read a bunch on the top 10 players or so as it was likely one of them would be ours.  Now it's just too much and often outside the top handful of guys the top 15-40 can vary greatly.   It's a great problem to have,  but it certainly lessens my interest in the pre-draft stuff.  I hope a few guys drop a bit and that we can get top 15 talent with #22 and maybe snag a talented project at #32.  

[OsFanInOhio]

29 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

It's just so hard from a fan perspective drafting this low.   I mean I love that we are since it reflects on the mlb team being good,  but it's much harder to keep up with the draft now.   In years past I'd read a bunch on the top 10 players or so as it was likely one of them would be ours.  Now it's just too much and often outside the top handful of guys the top 15-40 can vary greatly.   It's a great problem to have,  but it certainly lessens my interest in the pre-draft stuff.  I hope a few guys drop a bit and that we can get top 15 talent with #22 and maybe snag a talented project at #32.  

Definitely harder to try to figure out who is a target and who might be there, but I’m surprised how much I’m still quite interested in who we might pick. them again, I thought there’d be no chance bradfield would be there at our pick last year, so maybe someone unexpected does drop. Or someone gets hot down the stretch and surges up the boards. 
 

Our success with Gunnar, norby, westburg, mayo and how good beavers looks makes me think we can still do plenty of damage at 22 and 32. 

[forphase1]

19 minutes ago, OsFanInOhio said:

Definitely harder to try to figure out who is a target and who might be there, but I’m surprised how much I’m still quite interested in who we might pick. them again, I thought there’d be no chance bradfield would be there at our pick last year, so maybe someone unexpected does drop. Or someone gets hot down the stretch and surges up the boards. 
 

Our success with Gunnar, norby, westburg, mayo and how good beavers looks makes me think we can still do plenty of damage at 22 and 32. 

Oh sure, I'm very confident in Elias picking this low as I feel they do a good job of identifying what they like,  and it doesn't have to be just the top guys.  I won't be surprised at all if whomever they take ends up being better than expected for the slot they are picked in the end.   But it's just harder for me to keep up as the guy they draft is very unlikely to be someone I know much about.   When we are picking top 2-5 you really only needed to study 4 to 7 guys or so to be fairly certain you knew about who our guy would be.   Now there are probably 30ish guys who COULD go at number 22.  The top 10 will likely be gone and the guys after #40 or so won't be likely, but anyone in the 11 to 40ish range could be the pick of some fall or rise on our boards.  I'll be watching it closely on draft day,  but until then it's just too speculative to really dive into IMO.

I do wonder how much harder it is to prepare for this kind of a draft as an organization.   When you are picking top 5, you can really narrow the focus down on 7-8 guys and really dive in deep to decide your board and who you take if available.  With being in the low 20s, you need to research many,  many more guys but probably not in nearly the depth you did while picking higher. 

[McLovin]

Stupid question - any chance there is a Drew Storen type, nearly ready closer, within range of our three first rounders? Someone that could help this year?

(Yes I know even Storen needed seasoning - best example I had…)

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, McLovin said:

Stupid question - any chance there is a Drew Storen type, nearly ready closer, within range of our three first rounders? Someone that could help this year?

(Yes I know even Storen needed seasoning - best example I had…)

34. Brody Brecht

RHP

Ht: 6'4" | Wt: 205 | B-T: R-R

Age: 21

School: Iowa

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.8

It’s hard to match the pure arm talent, athleticism and upside that Brecht has. A former dual-sport athlete who was a wide receiver on Iowa’s football team, Brecht finally dropped football and focused exclusively on pitching during his junior year on campus. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound righthander was a reliever as a freshman and transitioned to a starting role as a sophomore and between his first two seasons he posted a 4.33 ERA in 99.2 innings with a 34.3% strikeout rate and 19.2% walk rate. Brecht’s fastball is one of the hardest in college baseball. He averaged 97.5 mph in 2023 and has been up to 101 and he pairs the heater with a hellacious, high-80s slider that has double plus potential. Brecht’s question marks are as big as his arm strength, and he needs to prove in 2024 that he can throw significantly more strikes and profile as a starter. Scouts are excited about what a full offseason working on his craft will do, and there’s a chance he showcases a new splitter and two slider shape variants during his junior season. Brecht’s pure upside is second to none, but his risk is high as well.

 

64. Michael Massey

RHP

Ht: 6'5" | Wt: 230 | B-T: R-R

Age: 20

School: Wake Forest

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.3

Massey was one of the most dominant relievers in the country during the 2023 season, his first with Wake Forest after transferring from Tulane. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound righthander posted a 2.59 ERA and struck out 47.2% of batters faced. He has elite fastball shape and generated a ludicrous 41% miss rate with the pitch, which averaged 94 mph and touched 97. The pitch plays up with 20 inches of induced vertical break, cutting life and deception that comes from a delivery that appears to release the ball from right behind his ear as late as possible. If the fastball wasn’t enough, Massey also has a late-breaking low-80s slider that looks like a plus pitch. He’ll rocket up draft boards if he pitches in a starting role and shows similar stuff in 2024.

[DocJJ]

Didn't former Oriole Closer go right from college to the Orioles Pen after a very brief cup of coffee in the minors?

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, DocJJ said:

Didn't former Oriole Closer go right from college to the Orioles Pen after a very brief cup of coffee in the minors?

Gregg Olson.  I believe he was the #4 overall in 1988.  Pitched in 16 games in A and AA combined and called up at the end of the same year he was drafted.   He wasn’t very good in the minors or the majors but he broke out big time in 1989.

[Rbiggs2525]

I know High School pitcher is a big miss rate but under different regimes we have done a decent job. Between Grayson, Hall, Harvey. Grayson may be the only SP but Hall helped get us Corbin Burnes.

[DocJJ]

Elias generally likes the safe route- polished college bat-  In the range where we pick I like Cam Smith, Dakota Jordan, and Walker Janek.

 

It's fun to think about going for broke and taking Brody Brecht - yes, he has control issues but he was splitting time between football and baseball.  Our pitching instructors can clean up his delivery and we can have a TOR Ace....

[OsFanInOhio]

7 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I know High School pitcher is a big miss rate but under different regimes we have done a decent job. Between Grayson, Hall, Harvey. Grayson may be the only SP but Hall helped get us Corbin Burnes.

I mean - 1/3 first round high school pitchers ended up as a starter. And one didn’t even stick with the orioles (Harvey - who was dfa’d after a bunch of injuries). Injury risk is a huge Piece of the miss rate on projecting 18 year olds, as is projecting growth and control.
 

I’d be pretty shocked if we take one early. We’ve taken two since Elias joined, unless I am forgetting someone. Baumler in the 5th round and Zack showalter in the 10th or 11th. That’s a really really low % of picks to hs demographic over the last 5 years…

[OsFanInOhio]

1 hour ago, DocJJ said:

Elias generally likes the safe route- polished college bat-  In the range where we pick I like Cam Smith, Dakota Jordan, and Walker Janek.

 

It's fun to think about going for broke and taking Brody Brecht - yes, he has control issues but he was splitting time between football and baseball.  Our pitching instructors can clean up his delivery and we can have a TOR Ace....

Dakota Jordan does align with a profile we’ve liked at times clear the years. Power profile with some swing and miss risk (kjerstad, westberg, mayo, Fabian). Unimpressive defense and arm on top of the swing and miss makes me nervous, but power, bat speed and foot speed is an enticing combination. 

[emmett16]

On 5/4/2024 at 2:55 PM, Jim'sKid26 said:

Six of the top 10 HS prospects on Perfect Game's list are OF. 

The most interesting kid on the list is Noah Franco from IMG Academy. Two way guy, re-classed to 2024 from 2025. Seems like a guy how will have enough ?s to fall to 32. It depends on whether scouts see him as a hitter or a pitcher or if he wants to do a full Shohei. 

"Noah Franco is a 2024 OF/LHP, 1B with a 6-3 192 lb. frame from Bradenton, FL who attends IMG Academy. Taller and high waisted frame with extra long limbs for the height. Ran a 6.52 in the sixty yard dash. A primary outfielder with really good instincts. Long strides and good routes, working through the ball with a fluid and clean funnel to release. Big arm strength at 96 mph. Lots of feel. Also has good ability at first base and the arm also plays extremely well there. A left-handed swing, the wrists are elite allowing him to flick the barrel with authority late in the process. All fields approach and lift and carry to the process. Hammered balls in game. A left-handed pitcher, loose arm action with big upside and the ball comes out clean and down hill. Ride to the heater when down. Lands the curveball and change up and sequences his three pitch mix well. Excellent athlete and the highest level 2-way potential at the next level. Excellent student. Named to the PG All-American Classic."

https://www.perfectgame.org/rankings/Players/NationalRankings.aspx?gyear=2024

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C7jv5MzOQnX/?igsh=MzhrZmRhaWJ0cnNw

[clapdiddy]

12 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C7jv5MzOQnX/?igsh=MzhrZmRhaWJ0cnNw

This guy sounds like their kind of player.

[OsFanInOhio]

Future Star series put out a mock that felt very orioles. 
 

22nd - Carson benge - who they even comp to Colton cowser (solid outfielder, cannon for an arm, good bat to ball skills with projectable power that he hasn’t fully tapped into yet). Of note that this sounds a bit like beavers as well (other than the swing fix beavers was projected for)

32nd - Carter Johnson. The article mentions this is where Gunnar was taken, but it is far from the first place that has compared him to Gunnar. Alabama prep shortstop projected to stick at ss unless he outgrows it. Pretty left handed swing with projection to grow into power. 
 

this sounds like a very very orioles draft, and I wouldn’t mind it one bit. 

[RZNJ]

12 hours ago, OsFanInOhio said:

Future Star series put out a mock that felt very orioles. 
 

22nd - Carson benge - who they even comp to Colton cowser (solid outfielder, cannon for an arm, good bat to ball skills with projectable power that he hasn’t fully tapped into yet). Of note that this sounds a bit like beavers as well (other than the swing fix beavers was projected for)

32nd - Carter Johnson. The article mentions this is where Gunnar was taken, but it is far from the first place that has compared him to Gunnar. Alabama prep shortstop projected to stick at ss unless he outgrows it. Pretty left handed swing with projection to grow into power. 
 

this sounds like a very very orioles draft, and I wouldn’t mind it one bit. 

That  does sound like an Oriole draft but I suspect they might pop this kid at 22 if he’s there and especially if Benge isn’t.

25. Theodore Gillen

SS

Ht: 6'3" | Wt: 200 | B-T: L-R

Age: null

School: Westlake HS, Austin, Tex.

Commit/Drafted: Texas

Age At Draft: 18.9

Gillen stood out from an early age as one of the most talented players in the 2024 class, though he had right shoulder surgery in April 2022, so he missed much of the year. Gillen has long been an impressive athlete, but he has added more size and strength to his 6-foot-3 frame, with his tools taking another jump too. He has a strong offensive track record, using a line-drive stroke with a knack for going the opposite way. He’s still learning to fully tap into his power, but he has fast bat speed and is driving the ball with more extra-base damage now than he was before. Still working his way back from his shoulder injury, Gillen previously has shown good agility, body control and actions at shortstop. Depending on what happens with his arm, his athleticism and plus-plus speed would translate well in center field too. He is committed to Texas.