Draft Targets 2 Months Out

[Rbiggs2525]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That  does sound like an Oriole draft but I suspect they might pop this kid at 22 if he’s there and especially if Benge isn’t.

25. Theodore Gillen

SS

Ht: 6'3" | Wt: 200 | B-T: L-R

Age: null

School: Westlake HS, Austin, Tex.

Commit/Drafted: Texas

Age At Draft: 18.9

Gillen stood out from an early age as one of the most talented players in the 2024 class, though he had right shoulder surgery in April 2022, so he missed much of the year. Gillen has long been an impressive athlete, but he has added more size and strength to his 6-foot-3 frame, with his tools taking another jump too. He has a strong offensive track record, using a line-drive stroke with a knack for going the opposite way. He’s still learning to fully tap into his power, but he has fast bat speed and is driving the ball with more extra-base damage now than he was before. Still working his way back from his shoulder injury, Gillen previously has shown good agility, body control and actions at shortstop. Depending on what happens with his arm, his athleticism and plus-plus speed would translate well in center field too. He is committed to Texas.

Looks really impressive but I can’t stand shoulder injuries. As someone whose has surgery on both shoulders, they usually never come back to full strength.

[OsFanInOhio]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That  does sound like an Oriole draft but I suspect they might pop this kid at 22 if he’s there and especially if Benge isn’t.

25. Theodore Gillen

SS

Ht: 6'3" | Wt: 200 | B-T: L-R

Age: null

School: Westlake HS, Austin, Tex.

Commit/Drafted: Texas

Age At Draft: 18.9

Gillen stood out from an early age as one of the most talented players in the 2024 class, though he had right shoulder surgery in April 2022, so he missed much of the year. Gillen has long been an impressive athlete, but he has added more size and strength to his 6-foot-3 frame, with his tools taking another jump too. He has a strong offensive track record, using a line-drive stroke with a knack for going the opposite way. He’s still learning to fully tap into his power, but he has fast bat speed and is driving the ball with more extra-base damage now than he was before. Still working his way back from his shoulder injury, Gillen previously has shown good agility, body control and actions at shortstop. Depending on what happens with his arm, his athleticism and plus-plus speed would translate well in center field too. He is committed to Texas.

Very possible. We just haven’t hs first rounders other than Holliday, and especially not older hs prospects (we passed on lawlar, though that may have been money and budget management related). Gillen would certainly fit the emphasis on speed we saw last year. I wouldn’t hate it. 
 

I still mostly expect Elias to lean heavily on college bats (lower risk, more model data) with the premium picks until I see some variance from their college bat heavy track record. Even the comp pick could easily be someone like Christian Moore from Tennessee, who gives me a bit of prospect norby vibes but with a bit more pop already in the profile. 

[RZNJ]

Baseball America mock draft 3.0 has Benge and Honeycutt off the board along with Cam Smith and James Tibbs.   They have us going for HS hitter Theo Gillen.

22. Orioles — Theo Gillen, SS, Westlake HS, Austin, Tex.

There’s some thought that Gillen doesn’t make it much further than this pick. That’s not to say the Orioles are definitely taking him if he gets here, but scouts think too many teams have interest in this range of the board for him to keep sliding. Gillen has a strong hit/power combination, projectable frame and plus speed.

[OsFanInOhio]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Baseball America mock draft 3.0 has Benge and Honeycutt off the board along with Cam Smith and James Tibbs.   They have us going for HS hitter Theo Gillen.

22. Orioles — Theo Gillen, SS, Westlake HS, Austin, Tex.

There’s some thought that Gillen doesn’t make it much further than this pick. That’s not to say the Orioles are definitely taking him if he gets here, but scouts think too many teams have interest in this range of the board for him to keep sliding. Gillen has a strong hit/power combination, projectable frame and plus speed.

If that’s the way the draft goes, gillen is the guy I’d want. The only college bats left at that point are amick, Jordan, and potentially Ryan waldschmidt. Waldschidt could be interesting, with good contact rates and power, and an outside shot at sticking in center. Another guy who needs to lift more to recognize that power according to baseball America. 
 

edit: mayos updated mock today has us taken gillen as well.  

Edited May 31 by OsFanInOhio

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, OsFanInOhio said:

If that’s the way the draft goes, gillen is the guy I’d want. The only college bats left at that point are amick, Jordan, and potentially Ryan waldschmidt. Waldschidt could be interesting, with good contact rates and power, and an outside shot at sticking in center. Another guy who needs to lift more to recognize that power according to baseball America. 
 

edit: mayos updated mock today has us taken gillen as well.  

That almost guarantees that it won’t be Gillen.   lol

[Jammer7]

15 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Baseball America mock draft 3.0 has Benge and Honeycutt off the board along with Cam Smith and James Tibbs.   They have us going for HS hitter Theo Gillen.

22. Orioles — Theo Gillen, SS, Westlake HS, Austin, Tex.

There’s some thought that Gillen doesn’t make it much further than this pick. That’s not to say the Orioles are definitely taking him if he gets here, but scouts think too many teams have interest in this range of the board for him to keep sliding. Gillen has a strong hit/power combination, projectable frame and plus speed.

I was listening to MLB Prospects podcast last week. They talked about Gillen, and mentioned a lot about how he may be the best high school hitter. However, it’s a tough call where he’ll go because of a weak arm. They said the arm was injured, a right labrum, and his arm strength is not back after two years. So, probably wasn’t going to be a SS anyway when said and done due to size, maybe a 2B/LF or CF profile due to the weak arm and 60 speed.

He was projected to maybe become the top high school player in the draft as a sophomore, but injured the shoulder and had some other injuries that have held him back.

It is going to be interesting to see where Elias goes with picks 22 and 32. I would like to see Gillen there, but I think he’ll be gone. Kellon Lindsey is interesting, and maybe Billy Amick, along with one of the previous college hitters you mentioned will sneak through. Lindsey is rising fast.

[RZNJ]

5 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

I was listening to MLB Prospects podcast last week. They talked about Gillen, and mentioned a lot about how he may be the best high school hitter. However, it’s a tough call where he’ll go because of a weak arm. They said the arm was injured, a right labrum, and his arm strength is not back after two years. So, probably wasn’t going to be a SS anyway when said and done due to size, maybe a 2B/LF or CF profile due to the weak arm and 60 speed.

He was projected to maybe become the top high school player in the draft as a sophomore, but injured the shoulder and had some other injuries that have held him back.

It is going to be interesting to see where Elias goes with picks 22 and 32. I would like to see Gillen there, but I think he’ll be gone. Kellon Lindsey is interesting, and maybe Billy Amick, along with one of the previous college hitters you mentioned will sneak through. Lindsey is rising fast.

I hadn’t heard an up to date report on Gillen’s arm.  He’s two years out from that surgery so that’s certainly not good.   I like Lindsey too.  The only real drawbacks are that he’s a RH hitter and the power projection is questionable but he’s got top of the line speed.

I’m really not interested in the hit first college types like Amick.   I’d like to see them go HS position player or roll the dice on a Brody Brecht/Jonathan Santucci college pitcher with big stuff and command issues.   At #22 and #32 maybe they can do both.

[Greg Pappas]

One factor to consider in taking HS talent is age.  Historically, prep players that are 19'ish work out less often than their younger counterparts.  The main reason is that they are physically more mature, and thus have an advantage.  There have been exceptions certainly, but often they have weaker careers.  

Sig is well aware of the analytics, so it would be a bit surprising to see us go that route.

In 2019, we took Gunnar 26 days before his 18th birthday, and Holliday was 18.6 years old when we took him in 2022.  It's a factor... but I can't say with certainty we wouldn't draft a 19-year old that early.

Edited June 1 by Greg Pappas

[Jammer7]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I hadn’t heard an up to date report on Gillen’s arm.  He’s two years out from that surgery so that’s certainly not good.   I like Lindsey too.  The only real drawbacks are that he’s a RH hitter and the power projection is questionable but he’s got top of the line speed.

I’m really not interested in the hit first college types like Amick.   I’d like to see them go HS position player or roll the dice on a Brody Brecht/Jonathan Santucci college pitcher with big stuff and command issues.   At #22 and #32 maybe they can do both.

Lindsey reminds me of Trea Turner at the same age. Not a comp, just a similar player.

I watched Amick and Christian Moore last night. I don’t have enough to give an opinion. I thought both were interesting talents and athletes.

I am concerned about Santucci right now. I can understand wanting a college arm, depends on health and track record. 

[Jammer7]

57 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

One factor to consider in taking HS talent is age.  Historically, prep players that are 19'ish work out less often than their younger counterparts.  The main reason is that they are physically more mature, and thus have an advantage.  There have been exceptions certainly, but often they have weaker careers.  

Sig is well aware of the analytics, so it would be a bit surprising to see us go that route.

In 2019, we took Gunnar 26 days before his 18th birthday, and Holliday was 18.6 years old when we took him in 2022.  It's a factor... but I can't say with certainty we wouldn't draft a 19-year old that early.

I hear you on the 19 year olds. I don’t buy it as an absolute. There is data both ways. COVID is still a factor too. Depends on the kid. Each player is judged on their own merits. Bobby Witt Jr. was 19 when drafted.  

[OsFanInOhio]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

I hear you on the 19 year olds. I don’t buy it as an absolute. There is data both ways. COVID is still a factor too. Depends on the kid. Each player is judged on their own merits. Bobby Witt Jr. was 19 when drafted.  

As was lawlar (technically he turned 19 the next week, but close enough) who was a top 10 mlb prospect the last 2 years and would be in the majors if not for the thumb injury 

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

I hear you on the 19 year olds. I don’t buy it as an absolute. There is data both ways. COVID is still a factor too. Depends on the kid. Each player is judged on their own merits. Bobby Witt Jr. was 19 when drafted.  

Right... I never intimated anything as absolute.  I tried to be clear on that point.  I'm not sure what you mean by, "There is data both ways."  I agree that Covid could be a factor with recent players.  Regardless, as we both said, there are exceptions. In Witt, Jr's case, a great one.

Here's an article from Baseball Prospectus that discusses the matter.  It is an old article (2011), but I can't find a more recent one without more time.  

Edited June 1 by Greg Pappas

[Jammer7]

1 minute ago, Greg Pappas said:

Right... I never intimated anything as absolute.  I tried to be clear on that point.  I'm not sure what you mean by there is data both ways.  Regardless, there are exceptions, and in Witt, Jr's case, a great one.

You said it works out less often. I agree that is what the historical data said in a study many years ago. It is a reason to be cautious. I would add that Gunnar is an exception as well. There are a long list of 17 year talents who do not develop. For me, it has more to do with which team drafts them, than age at graduation.

Things are changing, I think. I read an article some months ago about development and it talked about the age factors of high school kids. It was in depth about age, confidence, physical maturation and all that. It talked about high level travel ball, year round development and training, and how modern data have helped evaluate the players. I believe it was the opinion of the author, so I suppose it is anecdotal. 

Many talented kids are 19 at graduation, and Florida and Texas have it quite often. When they go to college, they become draft eligible sophomores. There are many examples of players in that demographic finding success.

I have no idea where that article was, sorry. I read a lot about these kinds of things from many sources as a former youth coach and the parent of a 13 year old pitcher/player. I am sure someone will ask for a link. Take it for what it is. Not trying to be argumentative, or contrary. Just adding to the discussion, Greg. 

[Greg Pappas]

9 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

You said it works out less often. I agree that is what the historical data said in a study many years ago. It is a reason to be cautious. I would add that Gunnar is an exception as well. There are a long list of 17 year talents who do not develop. For me, it has more to do with which team drafts them, than age at graduation.

Things are changing, I think. I read an article some months ago about development and it talked about the age factors of high school kids. It was in depth about age, confidence, physical maturation and all that. It talked about high level travel ball, year round development and training, and how modern data have helped evaluate the players. I believe it was the opinion of the author, so I suppose it is anecdotal. 

Many talented kids are 19 at graduation, and Florida and Texas have it quite often. When they go to college, they become draft eligible sophomores. There are many examples of players in that demographic finding success.

I have no idea where that article was, sorry. I read a lot about these kinds of things from many sources as a former youth coach and the parent of a 13 year old pitcher/player. I am sure someone will ask for a link. Take it for what it is. Not trying to be argumentative, or contrary. Just adding to the discussion, Greg. 

It's all good... and good reply. 

Edited June 1 by Greg Pappas

[Rbiggs2525]

Never really follow college baseball until the regionals. This kid from Texas Lebarron Johnson has an elite arm. He could definitely use some refinement but has been 96-98 first 4 innings.