Kyle Bradish 2024

[SemperFi]

11 hours ago, Hallas said:

Cowser is grading above average at CF right now and best in the league by a country mile at the corners by statcast OAA.  This matches the eye test for me.  DRS is a little less optimistic but still rates him above average in both spots.

 

He's already an elite defender.  He could clean up his throws for sure but that would just make him elite-er.

That's nice but it's a "straw man"argument if I ever saw one.  I'd wager Pete Gray would grade as elite on OAA/DRS but the fact was he only had one arm.....

There is no measure other than the "eye test" for accuracy and frankly IMO he's been poor.  He has a strong arm but his last two throws to the plate from short LF and CF (I think) missed by 30 feet on either side of the plate!!  Getting to the ball is important but if you can't hit a cut-his throws tend to sail-how many times have we seen Mateo/Gunnar have to reach for throws then reset.... 

We saw the other night against Toronto guys are going to run (even slow, chubby ones) against Cowser until he shows enough accuracy to shut them down-and until he does he will continue to give up advances at a rate that erodes the benefit of his coverage skills.  

IMO the critical components of an "elite" or plus OF are anticipation, coverage, arm strength, and accuracy.  He's plus on three and hopefully the accuracy will improve as the game slows for him. 

 

[Too Tall]

How many times has an Oriole rookie tried to establish himself while also dealing with being Mooooore than just a rookie. I think Cowser will be fine and I hope patience prevails. Stats aside, I see something. I mean in all his struggles - ups and downs - that "fun" personality prevails. Gotta root for that - right? MOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I would not say that Cowser is 8th in fWAR because AL outfielders are bad this year.  He’s at 1.9 fWAR, which projects to 4.4 fWAR for the whole season.  Last year, Austin Hays was 8th at 2.5 fWAR.

I do think that (1) fWAR overrates Cowser’s season to date, and (2) his numbers are largely based on the first month of the season.  To the latter point, Cowser was worth 1.4 fWAR after 27 games, 1.7 after 54.   

I agree with a lot of this. I think I also should’ve decided the offense of stats of the guys ahead of him. Because other than the big three, the rest of the stats really aren’t very impressive for the remaining outfielders in the American League. I just seems like this year, for whatever reason there is a ton of outfielders with great  offensive production.

[Warehouse]

10 hours ago, Malike said:

He had a hot 21-game stretch to start the season and has been a terrible hitter since the last week in April. He's been a bad hitter a lot longer than he has been a good hitter. He's striking out 31% of the time and he's been basically a net zero with the bat for nearly 2 months. 

That should not be beyond criticism, and the fact that it BLOWS YOUR MIND shows that it isn't difficult to do.

His defense has been great but his OPS in May was .580 and his OPS in June is low .540's after today.

These points are generally accurate, but I think the synthesis skews a bit negative. Overall, I am more positive on Cowser than I was coming in to the season.

·       Is he as good at defense as his OAA says? Probably not. However, he has been a lot better than expected and can likely be average or better in center field or plus in COF the next few years.  Combined with above average base running, this changes the hurdle on the offensive side to be an above-average regular.

·       I’m not sure it’s fair to just write off 40% of the season to date as a hot streak.  I think we would need to compare other players’ stats with their hottest month subtracted out.

·       Since May 1, his xwOBA has been .334. Overall, his xwOBA has been .349 (vs .330 wOBA). Yes, over a full season or more, wOBA tends to correlate to future wOBA equal or better than xwOBA does. However, in a half season or less, xwOBA has a stronger correlation to 2nd half wOBA than wOBA does. See here and here.

·       Cowser’s swing and miss will likely keep him from being elite, but I think he can still be very good.  Compare him to a player like Brent Rooker who has more swing and miss.

[Fiver6565]

Came here to read about Bradish and wondering if I clicked wrong because the entire last page is about Cowser….

[blid]

6 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Came here to read about Bradish and wondering if I clicked wrong because the entire last page is about Cowser….

I assumed I DID click the wrong thread!

Edited June 16 by blid

[Too Tall]

5 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Came here to read about Bradish and wondering if I clicked wrong because the entire last page is about Cowser….

And you are surprised??? I responded a few posts back thinking I was on the Cowser thread. Stupid me! Blame it on Frobby! 

[yark14]

To get back on topic, I feel bad for Bradish.

That is all.

[baltfan]

19 hours ago, Malike said:

He had a hot 21-game stretch to start the season and has been a terrible hitter since the last week in April. He's been a bad hitter a lot longer than he has been a good hitter. He's striking out 31% of the time and he's been basically a net zero with the bat for nearly 2 months. 

That should not be beyond criticism, and the fact that it BLOWS YOUR MIND shows that it isn't difficult to do.

His defense has been great but his OPS in May was .580 and his OPS in June is low .520's after today.

I heard Colton lurks on this board.  Maybe he took offense. 

[dystopia]

7 hours ago, yark14 said:

To get back on topic, I feel bad for Bradish.

That is all.

Have we had any update on the severity/rehab plan? 

[baltfan]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Have we had any update on the severity/rehab plan? 

They said he is getting opinions from doctors.  Sounds ominous. 

[yark14]

39 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Have we had any update on the severity/rehab plan? 

I'm normally not a Debby Downer, but given the circumstances it's probably TJ.  I hope I'm wrong.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, yark14 said:

I'm normally not a Debby Downer, but given the circumstances it's probably TJ.  I hope I'm wrong.

Hopefully it's the brace procedure.

[IllinoisOsFan]

[.500_OR_BETTER]

So now no Means, Wells, Brunes (unless extended), and Bradish in 2025.

Yikes, not good.... going to be interesting to see what the FO does.  Hopefully we make a move to acquire a top young starter and not some reclamation project.