Rotation status snapshot (as of 3/11)

[Big Mac]

To each his own. Bass has a much better fastball and better breaking stuff, IMO. Pauley has a decent changeup and I'm not even sure if Bass throws one. For all of the talk about control, they have the same exact walk rate in the minors (2.7/9IP). Unfortunately for Pauley, he doesn't have the stuff to setup his changeup. His hits to IP at AAA was mediocre and his brief callup to Boston was very similar to what he's done this spring, which is give up a ton of hits.

Yeah, I'm not really against having Bass in the rotation, he'd probably be a serviceable back-end starter this season. However, I think Pauley has a little more upside, so I would rather have him in the rotation.

We could do much worse than Brian Bass though.

[Frobby]

Let's face it, we have a bunch of guys with no track record of major league success competing for the rotation. I think you can be almost sure that, no matter which 5 guys Trembley chooses for the rotation to start the year, at least two of them will have been replaced before the all star break.

I'm reminded continuously of 2004 when we broke camp with Ponson, Riley, Ainsworth, DuBose and Bedard in the rotation. Bedard was a decision made in the final days of camp, and he was clearly the 5th of the 5 starters in the pecking order. By June Riley, Ainsworth and DuBose all were gone, but Bedard was still standing. Cabrera was promoted in May and did surprisingly well. Lopez was moved from the bullpen to the rotation. In August, Bruce Chen was brought in from AAA and pitched well. Somehow that staff actually finished in the top half of the league in ERA even though Mazzilli picked wrong in 3 of the 5 slots to start the year (and by the way, Ponson also was awful, though the O's had no choice but to leave him out there).

So I'm just not going to get too preoccupied with who is in the rotation when camp breaks. I'm more interested in who will be there in August and September. Hopefully 5 competent guys will have emerged by then.

[carolinaoriole]

I've stopped wondering whether or not we're going to have the worst pitching in the Majors, and started wondering how embarrassingly large the gap is going to be to the next worst team.

Some would say we need a small miracle. I'd say one of our options above not named Guthrie or Uehara pitching a full season with an ERA south of 5 would be a small miracle. Having three of them do it would be equivalent to parting the Red Sea.

Sorry for the pessimism. I needed to vent. This thread is incredibly depressing. Can someone just zonk me out and wake me up a year from now? If more than one of the big three have bad years or get hurt, don't bother. Follow the same protocol if we bring MelMo back.

This is a time to be excited about our pitching.

I am so ready for the season .

Cheer up we are about to embark on a great time to be an Oriole fan.

[Sports Guy]

Have you seen both of them pitch?

If not, you are just drawing conclusions based on statistics. Different conclusions can be drawn from the same statistics.

Wow, where did you figure this one out? Maybe the several posts where I said that's exactly what I am doing?

As I said, I would take the guy with similar command, better K rate and who is 1.5 years younger.

The rest of their stats, outside of hits allowed, are similar.

And hits allowed is a pretty bad stat to base this off of...We don't know what kind of defenses were behind these guys(and if you had to assume, you would say Bass had the better defenses)...We don't know what kind of condition the fields were in...All those things are a crap shoot in the minors...The hit rates aren't even that dramatically different to begin with.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, I'm not really against having Bass in the rotation, he'd probably be a serviceable back-end starter this season. However, I think Pauley has a little more upside, so I would rather have him in the rotation.

We could do much worse than Brian Bass though.

Yea...we could have Baez in there.

Bass is a much better option than Baez.

[Big Mac]

Yea...we could have Baez in there.

Bass is a much better option than Baez.

Or Eaton, Hendrickson, Waters, or some other mediocre vet we are likely to sign.

[Sports Guy]

Let's face it, we have a bunch of guys with no track record of major league success competing for the rotation. I think you can be almost sure that, no matter which 5 guys Trembley chooses for the rotation to start the year, at least two of them will have been replaced before the all star break.

I'm reminded continuously of 2004 when we broke camp with Ponson, Riley, Ainsworth, DuBose and Bedard in the rotation. Bedard was a decision made in the final days of camp, and he was clearly the 5th of the 5 starters in the pecking order. By June Riley, Ainsworth and DuBose all were gone, but Bedard was still standing. Cabrera was promoted in May and did surprisingly well. Lopez was moved from the bullpen to the rotation. In August, Bruce Chen was brought in from AAA and pitched well. Somehow that staff actually finished in the top half of the league in ERA even though Mazzilli picked wrong in 3 of the 5 slots to start the year (and by the way, Ponson also was awful, though the O's had no choice but to leave him out there).

So I'm just not going to get too preoccupied with who is in the rotation when camp breaks. I'm more interested in who will be there in August and September. Hopefully 5 competent guys will have emerged by then.

This is all true.

One thing I think we all do is get caught up on who makes the team out of ST, where they play, etc....

These things will work themselves out.

Now, I don't want to lose guys who have some upside just to keep an over the hill vet or something like that...To me, that is real justification to be upset.

Either way, none of these guys are likely part of the future...We may be able to get a 5th starter out of someone for the long term but other than that, our rotation is hopefully going to be the big 3, a top FA pitcher(Lackey I hope) and Guthrie, Uehera or one of the other young guys like Penn(for example).

[Sports Guy]

Or Eaton, Hendrickson, Waters, or some other mediocre vet we are likely to sign.

Yep...I agree.

[carolinaoriole]

FWIW I was told we're in talks with a veteran pitcher as we speak...

Man I hope we do not sign anymore pitching I like the guys we have and would like them to get a chance.

I am going to pray we do not sign Pedro.

And the media circus that comes with him.

[Sports Guy]

Man I hope we do not sign anymore pitching I like the guys we have and would like them to get a chance.

I am going to pray we do not sign Pedro.

And the media circus that comes with him.

Pedro would be a great signing...First of all, it will be a small contract...One year deal, likely incentive laden.

Pedro knows that if he signs with a team like us, that the idea would be to see what he has left and if he performs well, that he would be dealt in July and he would get a chance to win.

If Pedro is pitching well, on a cheap one year deal, he could fetch us as many as 2 solid prospects at the deadline.

So, basically you gamble 3 million or so in guaranteed dollars to see if he can eat some innings early, perform well and then get dealt for some young, cheap talent.

Its really a no lose situation for us..Worse case is he gets hurts, doesn't pitch(and doesn't reach incentives) and you just lose a few million.

[Crazysilver03]

Pedro would be a great signing...First of all, it will be a small contract...One year deal, likely incentive laden.

Pedro knows that if he signs with a team like us, that the idea would be to see what he has left and if he performs well, that he would be dealt in July and he would get a chance to win.

If Pedro is pitching well, on a cheap one year deal, he could fetch us as many as 2 solid prospects at the deadline.

So, basically you gamble 3 million or so in guaranteed dollars to see if he can eat some innings early, perform well and then get dealt for some young, cheap talent.

Its really a no lose situation for us..Worse case is he gets hurts, doesn't pitch(and doesn't reach incentives) and you just lose a few million.

All reports indicate that Pedro is looking to a deal similar to Smoltz's 5M guaranteed with $5.5M in incentives.

Once again, to say it is "no lose" is ignorant. It is a low risk high reward signing, but it doesn't mean we can't lose. While he wouldn't reach his incentives if hurt, that would still be $5M shot down the drain.

[carolinaoriole]

Pedro would be a great signing...First of all, it will be a small contract...One year deal, likely incentive laden.

Pedro knows that if he signs with a team like us, that the idea would be to see what he has left and if he performs well, that he would be dealt in July and he would get a chance to win.

If Pedro is pitching well, on a cheap one year deal, he could fetch us as many as 2 solid prospects at the deadline.

So, basically you gamble 3 million or so in guaranteed dollars to see if he can eat some innings early, perform well and then get dealt for some young, cheap talent.

Its really a no lose situation for us..Worse case is he gets hurts, doesn't pitch(and doesn't reach incentives) and you just lose a few million.

But my god the drama.

Pedro is one of the drama guys.

like Manny,T.O.Brett Farve,Arod.Clemens,Kobe, All that darn Drama.

I would almost rather lose 125 games than have to put up with it!!!!!

[Sports Guy]

All reports indicate that Pedro is looking to a deal similar to Smoltz's 5M guaranteed with $5.5M in incentives.

Once again, to say it is "no lose" is ignorant. It is a low risk high reward signing, but it doesn't mean we can't lose. While he wouldn't reach his incentives if hurt, that would still be $5M shot down the drain.

5 million in the scheme of things isn't much and while he may be looking for that contract, it doesn't mean he will get it either.

He is unsigned right now, teams are basically set for the most part and no one is paying money for anyone, yet you think Pedro is going to get exactly what he wants? May happen but its very unlikely.

[fansince71]

Man I hope we do not sign anymore pitching I like the guys we have and would like them to get a chance.

I am going to pray we do not sign Pedro.

And the media circus that comes with him.

What media circus? I dont think Pedro was ever on Roids. The only thing he did was a little head-hunting and throw Popeye to the ground. The guys a bull-dog on the mound. Ill take that before Eaton, Hendrickson or whatever scrub we end up signing.

[carolinaoriole]

What media circus? I dont think Pedro was ever on Roids. The only thing he did was a little head-hunting and throw Popeye to the ground. The guys a bull-dog on the mound. Ill take that before Eaton, Hendrickson or whatever scrub we end up signing.

I do not think he was on roids either and I did not say that

But he brings the media circus he is one of those guys that is kind of a prima donna .

You know its all about him

there is no I in team.