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Rotation status snapshot (as of 3/11)


stef

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our rotation is hopefully going to be the big 3, a top FA pitcher(Lackey I hope) and Guthrie, Uehera or one of the other young guys like Penn(for example).

You think AM is going somewhere? Or do you think he can get a top FA pitcher on a cheap short-term deal? Your expectation would seem to require one or the other.

I don't know why you would think AM is gonna spend big on signing a FA pitcher long term. He said he doesn't believe in doing that. He volunteered that information, back before anybody even asked him.

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Pedro would be a great signing...First of all, it will be a small contract...One year deal, likely incentive laden.

Pedro knows that if he signs with a team like us, that the idea would be to see what he has left and if he performs well, that he would be dealt in July and he would get a chance to win.

If Pedro is pitching well, on a cheap one year deal, he could fetch us as many as 2 solid prospects at the deadline.

So, basically you gamble 3 million or so in guaranteed dollars to see if he can eat some innings early, perform well and then get dealt for some young, cheap talent.

Its really a no lose situation for us..Worse case is he gets hurts, doesn't pitch(and doesn't reach incentives) and you just lose a few million.

Sounds good to me, I'd feel a whole lot better going into the season with the addition of Pedro.

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FWIW I was told we're in talks with a veteran pitcher as we speak...

I'm going to guess that we are after Mulder. Pedro would make too much sense but MacPhail doesn't want to spend more than 1 million dollars on a starter it seems and would rather sign dreck and injured players...

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Seriously?

The amount of weight being put in ST stats in a tiny sample size is mind boggling.

Go to the real sample size.....Minor league stats.

If past history of each of the candidates is what is used to decide who make the rotation none of them would make it.

Pauley's history shows that he is likely to take a year to adjust to the majors if he adjusts at all. In a year Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta are likely to pass him. So Tillman probably would put up numbers in the high 5.00's or 6.00's then not be on the team in 2010.

Judging the way the candidates are throwing is probably the only way to pick them because their history to not justify a rotation spot.

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I'm going to guess that we are after Mulder. Pedro would make too much sense but MacPhail doesn't want to spend more than 1 million dollars on a starter it seems and would rather sign dreck and injured players...

And this is a problem why, or are you just getting your daily dig in at MacPhail early?

Pedro makes "too much sense." The rumors are that the Dodgers might be interested at the price he is looking for, now that makes "too much sense" for Pedro.

Besides, we have enough pitchers we are trying to figure out. Pedro isn't a long term solution, but one of the ones we have now have a better chance.

I wouldn't mind signing Pedro but I am not going to get upset for it not occurring. It isn't like we are competing this year.

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You think AM is going somewhere? Or do you think he can get a top FA pitcher on a cheap short-term deal? Your expectation would seem to require one or the other.

I don't know why you would think AM is gonna spend big on signing a FA pitcher long term. He said he doesn't believe in doing that. He volunteered that information, back before anybody even asked him.

Well, he was willing to give a lot of money to Burnett...If the Orioles are close and AM fels they are a top pitcher away, I think he would sign one...I don't think he would give out some kind of Sabathia contract but a 4-5 year deal for 15 million a year or less, if we are close to contending, is a contract I think he would give.

Generally speaking, I agree with you but we are talking about contention.

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During the last 2 days or so, and looking at who could make up our rotation, especially taking into account the guys who are injured and may not be able to start games until May, I think AM is forced to sign another vet pitcher who is practically guaranteed a starting job. Only 2/5 of our rotation is filled. Koji is dealing with some aches and pains and Guthrie was ripped last night in the WBC. I don't blame AM wanting some insurance for his rotation right now.

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Hmmm...maybe Bergesen? Possibly Penn? Liz? Bass? Baez?

Definitely out (in my opinion): Hendrickson (thank goodness), Patton, Pauley, Hill (too bad, had lots of upside), Parrish.

It just doesn't seem to me that anyone has really jumped out of the crowd and said "hey! look at me!".

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Pauley's history shows that he is likely to take a year to adjust to the majors if he adjusts at all.

It's hard to say that categorically. He progressed just fine from the time he was drafted all the way through AA. AAA was really the only place where he struggled to adjust.

But I think your more general point is that he's likely to be surpassed by other pitchers in a year. I agree with you there. Pauley's a back-end guy if anything.

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During the last 2 days or so, and looking at who could make up our rotation, especially taking into account the guys who are injured and may not be able to start games until May, I think AM is forced to sign another vet pitcher who is practically guaranteed a starting job. Only 2/5 of our rotation is filled. Koji is dealing with some aches and pains and Guthrie was ripped last night in the WBC. I don't blame AM wanting some insurance for his rotation right now.

Aside from Pedro and maybe Odalis Perez, who is still out there who would be enough of an upgrade on Eaton, Hendrickson et. al. that you would want to guarantee them a slot in the rotation?

For the record, I'd be happy with Pedro at $5 M plus incentives. Pauley is looking more and more like someone who we'll be able to get through waivers (and who we won't be too sorry to lose if I'm wrong), so really the only Young Turks that are left are Liz, Penn and Bergesen. I'd much rather have Pedro than one of the old farts (Baez, Eaton or Hendrickson) in the rotation.

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During the last 2 days or so, and looking at who could make up our rotation, especially taking into account the guys who are injured and may not be able to start games until May, I think AM is forced to sign another vet pitcher who is practically guaranteed a starting job. Only 2/5 of our rotation is filled. Koji is dealing with some aches and pains and Guthrie was ripped last night in the WBC. I don't blame AM wanting some insurance for his rotation right now.

I would much rather have signed someone who actually was halfway reliable, instead of the kind of "insurance" we can get now. But you may be right, the way guys are dropping like flies. I doubt that Guthrie or Uehara's struggles this week are influencing AM's thinking, though. I think it's the attrition rate among everyone else.

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Penn and Bergesen are the the only guys IMO. Uehara has been around long enough. Who knows what he does in ST. Probably fine-tuning pitches and working on other ones. The younger guys, who are battling it out for rotation spots, are the ones we should be looking at with a microscope. They are likely playing at higher levels.

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