All of the sudden...

[DrungoHazewood]

We can't assume all our studs will make it. This is what has burned us in the past. We'll be lucky if one of the Big Three pans out to be a quality ML starter.

Yet you still think drafting Matusz was a nearly tragic decision?

Besides, you can always trade a Moyer or Wolf to make room for the other starters as everybody is always looking for quality starting pitching. We signed guys like Wigginton and Izturis to 2 year contracts, so why not another SP?

The O's have about zero position prospects ready to step in over the next couple years, yet they have potentially half a dozen or more starting pitchers. This isn't a hard concept.

Boston has Buchholz and Bowden waiting in the wings, yet they signed Penny and Smoltz.

Boston also has a ton of money, and the stability in the rest of the organization to take a risk on old and injury-prone pitchers with some upside. The O's need stability, therefore are unlikely to shell out a lot of cash for someone with about a 1-in-2 or 1-in-3 chance of going on the DL permanently in mid-May.

[DrungoHazewood]

We'd be extremely unlucky if none of the Big Three became a quality ML starter.

Pitchers have a very high attrition rate. It's not nearly so high that more that 2/3rds of all high-level, experienced prospects end up being less than decent major league pitchers. It would be very unlucky, indeed, if two or more of the big three don't have at least a league-average, five or six year career in the majors.

[JTrea81]

Yet you still think drafting Matusz was a nearly tragic decision?

The way I look at it is that he's here, so we should use him. We still should have drafted Smoak and signed a SP to take Matusz's place IMO.

Drafting Smoak and signing Burnett, per say would be cheaper than drafting Matusz and having to sign a bat for 150-200 million to put up Smoak's production.

[Frobby]

Service time shouldn't be an issue with Matusz, as Boras is not his agent. If he's ready you start him, otherwise you are just hurting your ML team for no reason. There's no reason this team needs to limp along. With quality starting pitching, this team could possibly contend for the WC.

I totally disagree that the service time issue is limited to Boras clients. No matter who the agent is, the Orioles have more leverage if a player is due to be a free agent a year later rather than a year earlier. And I can tell you right now that I like the O's playoff chances in 2015 better than their chances in 2009. Adding Matusz to the staff would not make us playoff contenders in 2009 even if he went out and threw 180 innings at a 3.75 ERA (and the odds of that are probably <1% anyway).

Putting all that to one side, I just think it's better to let Matusz reach a comfort level and get into mid-season form before asking him to go out every fifth day and get major league hitters out. Let him show us in the minors that he's ready for the majors.

[JTrea81]

I totally disagree that the service time issue is limited to Boras clients. No matter who the agent is, the Orioles have more leverage if a player is due to be a free agent a year later rather than a year earlier. And I can tell you right now that I like the O's playoff chances in 2015 better than their chances in 2009. Adding Matusz to the staff would not make us playoff contenders in 2009 even if he went out and threw 180 innings at a 3.75 ERA (and the odds of that are probably <1% anyway).

Putting all that to one side, I just think it's better to let Matusz reach a comfort level and get into mid-season form before asking him to go out every fifth day and get major league hitters out. Let him show us in the minors that he's ready for the majors.

Chances are we are better off to get Matusz's best years when he is younger than to keep him that extra year anyway. We'd be better off letting him walk or trading him and letting a younger pitcher that we've acquired replace him.

[Frobby]

The way I look at it is that he's here, so we should use him. We still should have drafted Smoak and signed a SP to take Matusz's place IMO.

Drafting Smoak and signing Burnett, per say would be cheaper than drafting Matusz and having to sign a bat for 150-200 million to put up Smoak's production.

Your assumptions about Smoak are just staggering. I keep waiting for you to explain to me, if it is so clear that Smoak is such a sure-fire stud, why 6 other teams after us failed to draft him?

Again, this is not to say that Smoak won't turn into Tex II. But it is not nearly so obvious as you portray it.

[Frobby]

Chances are we are better off to get Matusz's best years when he is younger than to keep him that extra year anyway. We'd be better off letting him walk or trading him and letting a younger pitcher that we've acquired replace him.

So you think Matusz is likely to be better as a 22-year old rookie, having never pitched in the minors, than he'll be as a 28-year old veteran?

[bird watcher]

Chances are we are better off to get Matusz's best years when he is younger than to keep him that extra year anyway. We'd be better off letting him walk or trading him and letting a younger pitcher that we've acquired replace him.

I don't know how many innings Matusz pitched last year but putting him in a major league rotation where the expectation, assuming health, is for him to pitch close to 170 innings may be optimistic. I know most baseball experts like to limit the increase in innings pitched from one year to the next.

How many did he pitch last year? and how many do we think they will let him pitch this year?

[The Rick]

I don't know how many innings Matusz pitched last year but putting him in a major league rotation where the expectation, assuming health, is for him to pitch close to 170 innings may be optimistic. I know most baseball experts like to limit the increase in innings pitched from one year to the next.

How many did he pitch last year? and how many do we think they will let him pitch this year?

In the NCAA last year he pitched 105 innings, and 26.2 innings in the AFL.

I'm not good at projecting how many innings would be a good suggestion for a young guy like this, someone else will have to give insight on that.

[JTrea81]

Your assumptions about Smoak are just staggering. I keep waiting for you to explain to me, if it is so clear that Smoak is such a sure-fire stud, why 6 other teams after us failed to draft him?

Again, this is not to say that Smoak won't turn into Tex II. But it is not nearly so obvious as you portray it.

If you notice, three catchers were taken before Smoak as catchers that can hit are seen as being more valuable than a 1B man. Alonso was I think just personal choice for Cinci, and Beckham being a SS, was again seen to be more valuable than a 1B man.

The Nationals and Orioles both wanted to take the best pitcher available, thus the selection of Crow and Matusz.

So that's how Smoak dropped IMO...

[Mackus]

The way I look at it is that he's here, so we should use him. We still should have drafted Smoak and signed a SP to take Matusz's place IMO.

Drafting Smoak and signing Burnett, per say would be cheaper than drafting Matusz and having to sign a bat for 150-200 million to put up Smoak's production.

So your strategy is to draft bats and sign the pitchers.

Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah

I can't emphasize enough how terrible of a strategy that is. Its amazing that anybody who understands baseball, which you do, would be so out of touch with reality as to think that is a good strategy.

Absolutely ridiculous to the point of hilarity.

I award you no points and my god have mercy on your soul.

[JTrea81]

So you think Matusz is likely to be better as a 22-year old rookie, having never pitched in the minors, than he'll be as a 28-year old veteran?

Given his mechanics, I'd say he's alot more likely to put up more quality innings at a younger age. As he gets older, he's more likely to breakdown, so you are best to get as many quality innings out of him while you can.

[bird watcher]

In the NCAA last year he pitched 105 innings, and 26.2 innings in the AFL.

I'm not good at projecting how many innings would be a good suggestion for a young guy like this, someone else will have to give insight on that.

So 105 innings and then a long break and then 27 more innings. This makes my point that 170+ consecutive innings may be a stupid thing for the Orioles to ask of Matusz this year. We talk about him being ready from a stuff/polish standpoint but what about a durability/stamina standpoint?

[Frobby]

In the NCAA last year he pitched 105 innings, and 26.2 innings in the AFL.

I'm not good at projecting how many innings would be a good suggestion for a young guy like this, someone else will have to give insight on that.

Tim Lincecum pitched 156 innings between college and the minors in 2006, then 177 between college and the majors in 2007.

David Price pitched 133 innings in college in 2007, and 123 as a professional last year.

I'm thinking in Matusz's case 140 IP will be the approximate target.

[Crazysilver03]

I thought Iread somewhere that Pauley was removed from that list as well.

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There has been nothing of this sort said.