Snyder looks to be our LT 1B solution

[tywright]

He also had a better OBP, more HRs and fewer K's than Snyder. Evans is a much better 1B prospect as his defense is also above average at 1B.

Nick Evans' splits...make sure you look at 2007

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=452783

Brandon Snyder's splits...take a look at his 2nd half

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=474319

[BMoreJayMo]

For some clarification on the Trea's Baseball Prospectus reference regarding Snyder, here's a bit of their analysis:

Year in Review: The former first-round pick continued his impressive return from shoulder surgery last year by delivering his best season as a pro.

The Good: Snyder's hitting fundamentals are excellent, and he has one of the quicker bats in the system, projectable average power, and an innate feel for contact. He uses all fields and got better as the season wore on, hitting .357/.400/.568 after the All-Star break. The former catcher has taken well to his new position, showing soft hands and much-improved positioning and footwork at first base.

The Bad: While his offensive skills are quite good, there are questions as to whether they'll be enough to make him an everyday first baseman, which he's limited to defensively. At a position where power and patience are prerequisites, Snyder is a free swinger who most project to hit somewhere around 18-22 home runs annually. He's a below-average runner.

Personally, I have not seen enough of Snyder to assess his current skills or "projectability" but common sense tells me shoulder surgery saps power. Similar to a young pitcher recovering from TJ surgery, it seems a hitter will develop more power as they get further from the knife while approaching physical maturity.

Given BP 's foundation of sabermetric analysis, I am surprised they didn't pick up on the declining K rates, but hey no one is perfect - even in their specialty. Except for maybe JTrea81's capacity to incite the OH community.

[BMoreJayMo]

BP said this? I could have sworn that someone had BA & BP saying that he was horrid at 1B.

Yep, that's a direct quote from their 2009 O's Top 11 Prospects.

And unless I'm missing the sarcasm, that was a JTrea81 post reporting the alleged BP take on Snyder as horrid at 1b.

[Stotle]

I don't know. I could still see 2010. Starting in AA this year, if he has another good offensive year, could earn him a late season AAA stint. More than likely the entire year at Bowie, starts next year at AAA, and comes up in an injury replacement situation.

I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek. I think Snyder will be up in 2010 and may break camp with the team.

[allstar1579]

I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek. I think Snyder will be up in 2010 and may break camp with the team.

OOOH ok, sorry, reading out of context. Just saw that last post or two. You can never tell in these threads anymore. I swear, since Tex signed elsewhere it seems people need to make posts attempting to bash everything the O's do out of spite.

I heard a guy on XM yesterday doing the same thing yesterday about the Braves because they didn't sign Furcal. All I could see in my head was Hitler crying and yelling at people

[Stotle]

OOOH ok, sorry, reading out of context. Just saw that last post or two. You can never tell in these threads anymore. I swear, since Tex signed elsewhere it seems people need to make posts attempting to bash everything the O's do out of spite.

I heard a guy on XM yesterday doing the same thing yesterday about the Braves because they didn't sign Furcal. All I could see in my head was Hitler crying and yelling at people

haha. Yeah, this off-season has brought on some overreaction (and hyperbole) from various sources. Hopefully once the season is underway we'll get back to some better conversation in general. Of course, so long as the team is losing there will be no shortage of voices who know exactly what's wrong and how to fix it.

[Frobby]

What numbers would Snyder need to put up at Bowie this year to convince you that he could provide enough offense to be a solid major league 1B?

Let's say his OPS this year approaches .900 -- are you convinced? A bit less? More?

[Ruzious]

I'm skeptical that a guy whose four-year professional peak is 13 home runs in A ball could be the solution at first in 2010 or any time thereafter. One can always hope, but they shouldn't hang their hat on that particular hook.

The Orioles should be looking elsewhere for a young hitting prospect with some power potential-that is-unless they can draft someone this year who will move quickly.If Snyder does develop, all the better. Maybe put him on third. But don't count on anything.

I'm not - at this point, because I expect he'll have a lot more homerun power in his mid 20's than he does at 21. His slugging percentage right now is more significant, imo. And he was a .490 last season. As a comparison, Nick Markakis was at .480 for the same team at the same age. I don't see any reason why he can't have the same type of power progression - if not better. But with apologies to Bill Cosby, the proof will be in the pudding.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm not very high on Snyder; I feel like he's Jim Loney's downside - contact-oriented guy with med-to-low power and weak on-base skills. A guy who could put up some .280/.330/.450 lines, which is pretty meh for a 1B with bleh defense.

However, I also am not ruling out the possibility of a power/walk rate spike and significant improvement.

That's pretty much my feeling, too. A lot of guys don't have a ton of power at 21 or 22, but develop it in their mid-to-late 20s. That could be Snyder. Or not. He probably won't be a guy who walks 75 or 90 times, but he might not have to be.

I'm pretty sure the only person who thinks the Orioles are relying on Synder as a single point of failure at first base in 2011 or so is JTrea. And I don't think even believes that, he's just saying so to keep up appearances as the town curmudgeon.

[JTrea81]

What numbers would Snyder need to put up at Bowie this year to convince you that he could provide enough offense to be a solid major league 1B?

Let's say his OPS this year approaches .900 -- are you convinced? A bit less? More?

He'll have to hit close to 20 HR and close to 90 RBI and put up an .850+ OPS. 1B is a power position in the majors, so he's got to start showing more power and patience.

Mat Gamel's 2008 would be a good target to shoot for...

[El Gordo]

I'm skeptical that a guy whose four-year professional peak is 13 home runs in A ball could be the solution at first in 2010 or any time thereafter. One can always hope, but they shouldn't hang their hat on that particular hook.

The Orioles should be looking elsewhere for a young hitting prospect with some power potential-that is-unless they can draft someone this year who will move quickly.If Snyder does develop, all the better. Maybe put him on third. But don't count on anything.

Age 21 A+ 315 .358 .490 848 13 HR 435 AB

Age 21 A+ 300 .379 .480 859 12 HR 350 AB

One guy is a future HOF for the O's and the other guy is an iffy 1B candidate for the O's in 2010?

[Mackus]

He'll have to hit close to 20 HR and close to 90 RBI and put up an .850+ OPS. 1B is a power position in the majors, so he's got to start showing more power and patience.

Mat Gamel's 2008 would be a good target to shoot for...

Blah blah blah

How many HRs and RBIs he hits is irrelevant. Its entirely possible for a player with 20 HR to be much more productive than a guy with 40. Snyder probably won't be a super high OBP guy, but he should hit for a solid average, have decent power, and have a solid OBP.

He doesn't have to hit 30+ HR to be able to play firstbase. Its a joke to suggest that he would have to.

I'll gladly take a guy at first base who hits 18-23 HRs, hits .310-.320 with a ~.875 OPS most years. No complaints there at all.

[Jimbo81]

Blah blah blah

How many HRs and RBIs he hits is irrelevant. Its entirely possible for a player with 20 HR to be much more productive than a guy with 40. Snyder probably won't be a super high OBP guy, but he should hit for a solid average, have decent power, and have a solid OBP.

He doesn't have to hit 30+ HR to be able to play firstbase. Its a joke to suggest that he would have to.

I'll gladly take a guy at first base who hits 18-23 HRs, hits .310-.320 with a ~.875 OPS most years. No complaints there at all.

Eddie Murray?

[Tx Oriole]

I see no reason to pile on the negative comments about JTrea. I just disagree with his opinion. I will go on record as saying I think Snyder can be an .850 - .900 OPS guy in the majors. And I'll go on record to say he'll be at least as good defensively as Aubrey Huff.

Let's review Snyder's recent past:

HWL: .942 OPS

FRE: .848 OPS

AFL: 1.097 OPS

At all three stops he was one of the younger players in the league. So why should we think he won't be an .850 - .900 OPS guy when he reaches the majors?

I agree with you. I almost feel sorry for the guy. Even though I disagree most times with Trea.

[El Gordo]

He'll have to hit close to 20 HR and close to 90 RBI and put up an .850+ OPS. 1B is a power position in the majors, so he's got to start showing more power and patience.

Mat Gamel's 2008 would be a good target to shoot for...

Steve Garvey, John Olerud, Kieth Hernandez, Don Mattingly, I pity the fools who had to put up with these mooks at 1B.:rolleyestf: