Which of our 8 starters would make the best closer?

[oriole]

13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't get what the point is here.  

Same. I think it may be a better discussion to ask who would you move to that role? That takes some obvious candidates out like Burnes, Rodriguez, and Bradish. But between Wells, Suárez, and Kremers success the first time through the order…it’s a good thing to ruminate.

[Aglets]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Ugggh!   He didn’t ask who would do well.  He asked who would be the best closer.

Based on the evidence of all the pitchers so far he is who I voted for.

I understand the question, thanks.

[interloper]

The right answer is probably Burnes, but I went with Bradish because I think he has the best swing and miss stuff on the starting staff. Maybe the fastball plays up to 98 and then he has the devastating slider. 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Not the way he starts off games. He's got a 643 ERA and batters have slashed .344/.382/.813/1.195 off him in the 1st inning of work. He seems to be a guy who needs to get in the groove a bit.

Two counter points.  His career starter ERA is 3.04 and his career 1st inning ERA is 3.11 so not sure it won’t even out eventually.

Point two.  When he’s pitching the first inning he’s not letting it all hang out because he knows he has another 5 or 6 to go.

[Frobby]

For me a very important question is how does a guy do when he’s first brought into the game.  Some starters take an inning or two to settle in, others are very dominant at the start of their appearances.  Obviously, you want the latter.  

Based on that, it’s close between Burnes and Bradish.  For pitches 1-25, Burnes allows opposing hitters a .204/.264/.316 line, Bradish allows .212/.290/.296.   In the first inning, Burnes has an ERA of 3.11, Bradish 2.67.   So, it’s razor thin between them.  This year, Burnes has been something of a slow starter, with a first inning ERA of 6.43, and a ,984 OPS against in pitches 1-25.

Of course, Burnes spent his first two years in the majors as a reliever, and was converted to a starter partway through the Covid season.  So, he has a track record as a reliever, though not as a closer.  One good year (2.61 ERA), one bad one (8.84), then he was converted partway though the next year.  

I think I’d probably go with Bradish.  

 

[Fiver6565]

Grayson for me, absent the shoulder issues.  He's not built up as much as the other guys (other than Means) inning wise, and is the most likely to throw 100 and just blow dudes away when necessary.

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

I disagree.  He is at his worst to start games.   He seems to need to warm up a bit before finding his groove.   Not sure he'd be able to get great in just one inning. 

If he has to be a closer, he figures it out. People like to judge a guy in a completely different role and act as if that is how things will always be.

He’d be an elite closer

[HowAboutThat]

25 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't get what the point is here.  

It’s an off day. What else else are we gonna talk about?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

9 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Grayson for me, absent the shoulder issues.  He's not built up as much as the other guys (other than Means) inning wise, and is the most likely to throw 100 and just blow dudes away when necessary.

I voted for Grayson using the same reasoning. Only having to pitch an inning Grayson can throw extra gas and get his fastball up to 100+ MPH.

Edited May 6 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't get what the point is here.  

Does there have to be a point?  Not all starters are suited to being relievers, much less closers.  So I’m just curious who people think could do that job the best.   There’s no agenda to the question.  

[HowAboutThat]

Suarez! Who else is there?

He has quick and easy innings with a minimum of pitches and almost no fuss. He almost

[Pickles]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Burnes is the best pitcher, so him.

This.

[EddeeEddee]

Unfortunately this site won't let me copy and paste from Snagit or Snipping tool, but I looked up all O's starters' stats in the first inning.  

For pitchers with 6 or more starts:

Kremer is easily the best.  He's only allowed 1 hit and 1 walk in the first inning across all 6 of his starts.  No runs.

Irvin has also been good, though 6 hits across 6 starts in the first inning.  No runs.

Burnes is easily the worst.  In 7 starts he has allowed 4 home runs in the first inning -- and 11 hits total in the first inning.  So those arguing he would be bad as a closer have a pretty strong point.  

Grayson has also not been so good in the first inning, though better than Burnes.  One HR in the first inning across 6 starts.  8 hits and 3 ER total in the first inning for Grayson.

Less than 6 starts:

Suarez has only had 3 starts but has been effective, allowing no runs, no hits and only one walk in the first inning.  

Wells has not been so great in the first inning in 3 starts.  1 HR, 2 ER, 3 hits and only 2 Ks.  

[Jammer7]

This isn’t as easy a question as it may seem. You can say we’re taking out the cost of losing that pitcher as a starter, which is obviously huge for Burnes, GRod, Bradish, Kremer and Means. Fine. However, only one pitcher, I believe, has actually closed games, and that is Wells. Some starters do not do well in the pen. They do not adjust to the routine as well, or they break down with the work load when they “air it out.”

If we assume they can make the adjustment, then Burnes. Not just on pure stuff, but his knowledge, experience and physicality are huge factors. Of course, Burnes would likely reject that move, as he should, just before his FA shot.

I voted Wells before I fully understood the question, because he has done it and his days as a starter are likely done here in Baltimore, unless there is a slew of injuries.

McDermott was not a choice, but he might actually be the guy for the job.

 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Unfortunately this site won't let me copy and paste from Snagit or Snipping tool, but I looked up all O's starters' stats in the first inning.  

For pitchers with 6 or more starts:

Kremer is easily the best.  He's only allowed 1 hit and 1 walk in the first inning across all 6 of his starts.  No runs.

Irvin has also been good, though 6 hits across 6 starts in the first inning.  No runs.

Burnes is easily the worst.  In 7 starts he has allowed 4 home runs in the first inning -- and 11 hits total in the first inning.  So those arguing he would be bad as a closer have a pretty strong point.  

Grayson has also not been so good in the first inning, though better than Burnes.  One HR in the first inning across 6 starts.  8 hits and 3 ER total in the first inning for Grayson.

Less than 6 starts:

Suarez has only had 3 starts but has been effective, allowing no runs, no hits and only one walk in the first inning.  

Wells has not been so great in the first inning in 3 starts.  1 HR, 2 ER, 3 hits and only 2 Ks.  

When you look at career numbers rather than just this year, Burnes fares better than the players you mentioned.