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One-run games


Uli2001

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For one thing, they don’t have Bautista shutting things down in the 9th inning or extra innings.  

Second, 30-16 just doesn’t happen every year.  I’m actually pretty encouraged that the O’s have played .650 baseball without winning a disproportionate number of close games.  
 

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3 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Yeah, the pen is shaky and offense is really down in general. Look at what Hays, Mullins and Santander are doing this year compared to last year. Thankfully, the young guys are doing their best to pick up the slack. 

Santander really shouldn’t be lumped in with Hays and Mullins IMO.   He’s mildly below expectations, and has had hot and cold spells.  Hays and Mullins are WAY below their norms.   

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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Santander really shouldn’t be lumped in with Hays and Mullins IMO.   He’s mildly below expectations, and has had hot and cold spells.  Hays and Mullins are WAY below their norms.   

I agree, but in general, our entire starting OF from last year has be underperforming this season

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Winning one-run games isn't a repeatable skill from season to season, even if you have an outstanding closer.  We're just regressing to the mean. There's a good chance that we'll wind up this season being a better team but with fewer wins than last season.

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On 5/19/2024 at 10:41 AM, Frobby said:

For one thing, they don’t have Bautista shutting things down in the 9th inning or extra innings. 
 

Yes, I think that is the biggest difference. If Kimbrel doesn't blow those two saves against Oakland, the Orioles would be 8-4 in one-run innings, which is the same pace as last year.

You can't overstate the importance of a shutdown bullpen in today's game. The Royals won a world series in the past 10 years with a shutdown bullpen and average everything else. Starters these days are pitching less than six innings. I think you will see a lot of money move from elite starters to elite relievers.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/19/2024 at 4:10 AM, Uli2001 said:

The Orioles were 30-16 in one-run games in 2023.

They are 6-6 this year so far.

Orioles magic hasn’t been there this year, at least so far.

What changed?

Random variation.

The 2012 Orioles were 29-9 in one-run games. They returned most of the players, managers, and coaching staff and in 2013 were 20-31.

Edited by DrungoHazewood
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