Keith Law has O's taking Tommy White at #22 in latest mock draft

[Sports Guy]

A college catcher would be an interesting choice.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

A college catcher would be an interesting choice.

Would be worth it just to read folks speculate on how it means Elias doesn't think Bassallo can stick at C.

[panick]

On 5/25/2024 at 12:25 PM, Jim'sKid26 said:

To be clear, I don't see Elias taking a college pitcher in the first round. I was just responding to ScGo's post.  #22 is a tough place to draft a college arm, I agree.

The Pirates are probably glad you weren't in charge of their draft last year.

[Jim'sKid26]

12 hours ago, panick said:

The Pirates are probably glad you weren't in charge of their draft last year.

Troll much?

[RZNJ]

With the choices  left on the board there I can’t see how you can pass on the talent of Brody Brecht.  You can still pick up a HS or college position player at 32.

[Jim'sKid26]

12 hours ago, panick said:

The Pirates are probably glad you weren't in charge of their draft last year.

So let's look at the #22 selection in the MLB draft for the last 10 years:

2023: High school SS

2022: Cooper Hjerpe - P - OSU; Elbow surgery in 2023

2021: HS SS

2020: Cade Cavalli, P from Oklahoma, TJS in 2023

2019: College SS

2018: Ryan Rollison, P from Ol' Miss; Shoulder surgery 2023

2017: College SS

2016: College SS

2015: Beau Burrows, High school P, Cup of Coffee in MLB, currently in Phillies AAA with ERA around 6

2014: Grant Holmes, High School P, career minor leaguer, has not pitch in MLB

Keep point here is that the #22 pick is a tough one to use on a college arm. Generally if college guys fall that low they are flawed in some way, have a bit of milage on their arms or don't have the physical traits to justify the bonus $. Are their exceptions? Perhaps. But in generally, bats are a safer play in this range, IMHO.

[RZNJ]

35 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So let's look at the #22 selection in the MLB draft for the last 10 years:

2023: High school SS

2022: Cooper Hjerpe - P - OSU; Elbow surgery in 2023

2021: HS SS

2020: Cade Cavalli, P from Oklahoma, TJS in 2023

2019: College SS

2018: Ryan Rollison, P from Ol' Miss; Shoulder surgery 2023

2017: College SS

2016: College SS

2015: Beau Burrows, High school P, Cup of Coffee in MLB, currently in Phillies AAA with ERA around 6

2014: Grant Holmes, High School P, career minor leaguer, has not pitch in MLB

Keep point here is that the #22 pick is a tough one to use on a college arm. Generally if college guys fall that low they are flawed in some way, have a bit of milage on their arms or don't have the physical traits to justify the bonus $. Are their exceptions? Perhaps. But in generally, bats are a safer play in this range, IMHO.

You stopped just shy of Hunter Harvey (2013) and Marcus Stroman (2012).   The fact is, going back to 2000, of those 24 picks at #22, 16 were pitchers.  Not many success stories.  Kolten Wong is the only notable college position players.  Colson Montgomery (22) is a top prospect but hitting .223 at AAA and far from a sure thing.  Colton Emerson, a HS SS chosen last year gets rave reviews but he’s got a long way to go. 
 

So, not many success stories no matter which demographic you go with.  Position players are always going to be safer.

[Jim'sKid26]

49 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You stopped just shy of Hunter Harvey (2013) and Marcus Stroman (2012).   The fact is, going back to 2000, of those 24 picks at #22, 16 were pitchers.  Not many success stories.  Kolten Wong is the only notable college position players.  Colson Montgomery (22) is a top prospect but hitting .223 at AAA and far from a sure thing.  Colton Emerson, a HS SS chosen last year gets rave reviews but he’s got a long way to go. 
 

So, not many success stories no matter which demographic you go with.  Position players are always going to be safer.

Hunter Harvey was not a good pick for the team that drafted him, IMHO.

Stroman was 12 years ago....and he represents the only exception to a significant trend of failure. 

[RZNJ]

45 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Hunter Harvey was not a good pick for the team that drafted him, IMHO.

Stroman was 12 years ago....and he represents the only exception to a significant trend of failure. 

Can you pick a signature trend of success for any of the picks after pick #20 for any demographic?   
 

Would you, hypothetically, pass on Chase Burns or Hagen Smith (both expected to go top ten) if they dropped to #22 just because they were pitchers?
 

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

With the choices  left on the board there I can’t see how you can pass on the talent of Brody Brecht.  You can still pick up a HS or college position player at 32.

If Brecht is there, I can get on board with him. Depends on how much they like guys like Theo Gillen, Kellen Lindsey or Luke Dickerson.

Vance Honeycutt could be there, though I doubt it. But if he is, what are your thoughts? He seems to be a guy they would like a lot, despite swing and miss concerns.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

If Brecht is there, I can get on board with him. Depends on how much they like guys like Theo Gillen, Kellen Lindsey or Luke Dickerson.

Vance Honeycutt could be there, though I doubt it. But if he is, what are your thoughts? He seems to be a guy they would like a lot, despite swing and miss concerns.

If the bat develops he’s a 5 tool player.  I could get on board with it because he’s a pick you can dream on, like Brecht.   The 27% K rate and the fact that his Junior year stats and freshman stats are almost identical is a red flag for me.  He made adjustments his sophomore year (20% K rate) but couldn’t do damage.  Junior year he goes back to putting up numbers but the K rate is back to 27%.   I would hope for the best but expect what you’re seeing with Spencer Jones in AA this year.

Now Brecht could blow his arm out or walk the stadium but the stuff gets raves, the mechanics look sound, and the guy is an athlete.  
 

If not Brecht, I like taking a shot with Gillen, Lindsey, or Tyson Lewis.

[Jammer7]

58 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If the bat develops he’s a 5 tool player.  I could get on board with it because he’s a pick you can dream on, like Brecht.   The 27% K rate and the fact that his Junior year stats and freshman stats are almost identical is a red flag for me.  He made adjustments his sophomore year (20% K rate) but couldn’t do damage.  Junior year he goes back to putting up numbers but the K rate is back to 27%.   I would hope for the best but expect what you’re seeing with Spencer Jones in AA this year.

Now Brecht could blow his arm out or walk the stadium but the stuff gets raves, the mechanics look sound, and the guy is an athlete.  
 

If not Brecht, I like taking a shot with Gillen, Lindsey, or Tyson Lewis.

Luke Dickerson is a late riser as well, HS infielder.

Honeycutt’s profile reminds me a lot of Bradfield and Horvath from 2023. He probably won’t be there, but if so, I echo your thoughts. He is a very exciting player, potentially.

Brecht is probably gone too. Not sure what his $ number is, or any of these guys for that matter. They could gamble on an arm there at 22, knowing they can get a HS hitter in the comp pick, 32 (I think?). I like to occasionally gamble on arms, if you like the stuff and the track record. In a way, it’s good that he is at Iowa and not a program that goes deep in the tournament and such.

As I understand it, Brecht converted from a football wide receiver twos year or so ago, so as you said, he’s an athlete. Not sure of the mileage on the arm. With the stuff and athleticism, reliever risk is not a problem for me. I have come around on him a bit after you kept pounding the keyboard on him. 

Edited June 14 by Jammer7
Correction

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Luke Dickerson is a late riser as well, HS infielder.

Honeycutt’s profile reminds me a lot of Bradfield and Horvath from 2023. He probably won’t be there, but if so, I echo your thoughts. He is a very exciting player, potentially.

Brecht is probably gone too. Not sure what his $ number is, or any of these guys for that matter. They could gamble on an arm there at 22, knowing they can get a HS hitter in the comp pick, 32 (I think?). I like to occasionally gamble on arms, if you like the stuff and the track record. In a way, it’s good that he is at Iowa and not a program that goes deep in the tournament and such.

As I understand it, Brecht converted from a football wide receiver twos year or so ago, so as you said, he’s an athlete. Not sure of the mileage on the arm. With the stuff and athleticism, reliever risk is not a problem for me. I have come around on him a bit after you kept pounding the keyboard on him. 

I had never heard of Luke Dickerson before.  His HS is about an hour away from me.  Baseball America does a top 500 ranking.  I thought I’d find him in the top 100.  Nope.  I searched by “Luke” and he popped up at #311.  That’s some late riser!   Here’s the write up.   Is he supposed to be in top 2 rounds consideration?

311. Luke Dickerson

SS

Ht: 6'0" | Wt: 185 | B-T: R-R

Age: null

School: Morris Knolls HS, Rockaway, N.J.

Commit/Drafted: Virginia

Age At Draft: 18.9

Dickerson has been one of the better offensive performers among high school hitters in the northeast, which along with his athleticism has piqued the interest of scouts. Dickerson, who won a hockey state championship in March, has a strong, compact frame and plus speed. Scouts highest on him see an offensive-minded righthanded hitter who has shown solid feel for hitting and for the strike zone with the ability to use the middle of the field, along with an uptick in power production this spring. Dickerson has played shortstop but has experience in the center field as well, with second base or the outfield potential fits for him long term.

[Jim'sKid26]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Can you pick a signature trend of success for any of the picks after pick #20 for any demographic?   
 

Would you, hypothetically, pass on Chase Burns or Hagen Smith (both expected to go top ten) if they dropped to #22 just because they were pitchers?
 

I like college bats after #10 until the end of the first round. My preference is for them to have some defensive value if possible. I like the idea of using comp picks to try to get high end high school bats. Its a risk/reward type of pick.

I would have to know why they, (Burns and Smith) fell to that level. Pitchers break and that's a lot of money for a broken pitcher. I'd be very cautious, in other words.

[RZNJ]

53 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I like college bats after #10 until the end of the first round. My preference is for them to have some defensive value if possible. I like the idea of using comp picks to try to get high end high school bats. Its a risk/reward type of pick.

I would have to know why they, (Burns and Smith) fell to that level. Pitchers break and that's a lot of money for a broken pitcher. I'd be very cautious, in other words.

I just checked picks 20-30 for every draft 2014-2023.  Feel free to correct me.   The two best demographics for those spots tend to be HS position players followed be college pitchers.