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You can stick a fork in Pauley so far as I'm concerned


Frobby

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Agreed it's a small sample size, but sometimes that's all you need. This guy had a cup of coffee in the majors in 2007, and he stunk it up. He had another cup of coffee in 2008 and he stunk again. He's stunk every time out this spring except once. And it's not like he was a ball of fire in the minors to begin with.

We're reaching the point where the starters need to be stretched out and choices have to be made. If I am Dave Trembley, the choice on Pualey is clear.

Cup of coffee being the key phrases.

No one is saying Pauley is some world beater or that he is a real long term solution.

But he has shown the ability to eat innings and keep the walks down.

His MLE's in the minors weren't that bad.

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What? 11 innings is a very small sample size.

Not sure what his K and BB numbers were today but entering today, he had a 4:1 K/BB ratio, 7.74 K rate, 1.93 BB rate and hadn't given up a homer.

The hits allowed are disturbing but we don't know how many of the hits have been effected by the defense, the crazy winds that occur in ST and things like that.

If Pauley had a track record that inspired confidence I'd ignore 11 spring innings, too. But the truth is, he had just an ok season last year at AAA in his third try at that level; his peripherals weren't even all that great last season; he's been lousy in his cups of coffee at the major league level; and his upside according to scouts is back-of-the rotation fodder.

He comes to camp with a golden opportunity to claim a rotation spot, and this is how he responds?

I agree with Frobby. No thanks.

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Right....It happens. As you say, BABIP is probably way high..Bad luck, things like that.

That's why judging a pitcher on hits allowed isn't the best way of doing it.

True, but in Pauley's case teams were slugging at a .604 clip before today. So he's not just giving up bloop singles, he is getting hit pretty hard. Add in todays outing and the picture looks even worse.

I'm not ready to write him off but, he is definitely on the outside looking in.

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In spring training it's all you GET, unfortunately.

You have this small window to either make the team or take a hike, and some of that is going to be dictated by things beyond your control. All you can do it keep the ball down and hope for the best, I guess.

Pauley hasn't gotten great results thus far.

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Right....It happens. As you say, BABIP is probably way high..Bad luck, things like that.

That's why judging a pitcher on hits allowed isn't the best way of doing it.

I will resist this logic with every fiber in my being until the day I die. Did it ever occur to you that his BABIP is high because the hitters are crushing everything he throws?

I swear I think Voros McCracken did baseball a huge disservice when he came up with the theory that lead to BABIP, because it is misused by so many people.

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Right....It happens. As you say, BABIP is probably way high..Bad luck, things like that.

That's why judging a pitcher on hits allowed isn't the best way of doing it.

I have seen him pitch and his stuff is not good enough for the big leagues.

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True, but in Pauley's case teams were slugging at a .604 clip before today. So he's not just giving up bloop singles, he is getting hit pretty hard. Add in todays outing and the picture looks even worse.

I'm not ready to write him off but, he is definitely on the outside looking in.

This is my issue with Pauley.

He's been getting thumped pretty good despite the fact he's only given up 1 home run in 11 innings.

Teams have to be slugging close to .700 off of him.

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I will resist this logic with every fiber in my being until the day I die. Did it ever occur to you that his BABIP is high because the hitters are crushing everything he throws?

I swear I think Voros McCracken did baseball a huge disservice when he came up with the theory that lead to BABIP, because it is misused by so many people.

I am not going to deny that he has been tattooed at times.

But you can't sit there and say, with any knowledge, that he has been crushed everytime the ball has been hit.

Here is what we do know...The 3 things a pitcher can control, K's, walks and homers, are good for Pauley thus far.

That's encouraging.

We need someone to eat innings and give us a 5ish ERA.

Talking about him getting crushed at times and his inconsistencies, etc...basically describes most 5th starters in all of baseball.

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I am not going to deny that he has been tattooed at times.

But you can't sit there and say, with any knowledge, that he has been crushed everytime the ball has been hit.

Here is what we do know...The 3 things a pitcher can control, K's, walks and homers, are good for Pauley thus far.

That's encouraging.

We need someone to eat innings and give us a 5ish ERA.

Talking about him getting crushed at times and his inconsistencies, etc...basically describes most 5th starters in all of baseball.

Good point.

Still, the extra base hits are a bit of a concern, IMO.

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Posted this before:

1) He is out of options.

2) He is only 25(26 in June).

3) Over the past 2 seasons, he has made 51 starts in the minors and has averaged almost 6 IP per start...And he had one relief appearance in that time period where he went 6 innings.

4) He hasn't shown much in the majors but he has also only pitched 28 innings...But in the minors, he showed pretty good command. His FIP in 2007 was 4.35 and last year it was 3.65...Both years in AAA.(his career FIP is 4.23)

I don't expect him to be anything great but he had a 5.21 MLE FIP in 2007 and a 4.39 MLE FIP last year.

So, if he can stay healthy, maybe he can get us 25-30 starts, pitch 150-160 innings and give us a 4.80ish ERA.

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I'm not sure the theory about unlucky BABIP really applies here considering so many of the hits given up appear to be hard hit (as has been said). Isn't a high line drive % indicative of being very hittable? We don't have those stats to work with, but at one point it's important to realize that so many extra base hits is cause for alarm.

I like Pauley, I like his minor league numbers, but he isn't earning a role on the big league club. If JJ starts the year on the DL, maybe we can find a spot for him in the bullpen.

He's definitely underachieving right now. I don't think for a second that what we're seeing now is "the real" Pauley, but it's hard to make a case for the guy now, unless he's one of only a few healthy arms at the end of spring training.

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Just wanted to point this out.
I will resist this logic with every fiber in my being until the day I die. Did it ever occur to you that his BABIP is high because the hitters are crushing everything he throws?

I swear I think Voros McCracken did baseball a huge disservice when he came up with the theory that lead to BABIP, because it is misused by so many people.

This stat is worthless to me. Unless I totally misunderstand it, somewhere in there are horrible pithers, great pitchers and average pitchers with regard to hit's per balls in play. If you're going to attempt to determine where pitcher X falls, look at his history. Pauley doesn't have a track record of success with which you can not feel he is anything but a gamble. Having 2-3 of these guys in camp is ok, having 80% of the camp being these type guys isn't so good.

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