You can stick a fork in Pauley so far as I'm concerned

[NCRaven]

MLE is his major league equivalent ERA.

Gotcha. Although, we could argue over the model and how it arrives at this figure, but what we're saying is that it's a guess as to what his performance in the minors might have looked like in the majors. Maybe. Without any means of testing it's accuracy since the results did come in the minors and not the majors.

[DrungoHazewood]

If Pauley gets sent to the minors and isn't in this rotation, whats the big deal?

He was swapped for a player we didn't need and brought in to maybe compete for a spot in the rotation. Nobody at all thought he would be a longtime fixture in the rotation, but maybe he would be able to hold it down until someone was ready to come up.

So one of our maybes hasn't panned out, not that big of a deal. It stinks that our rotation has even more question marks right now, but its not like he was brought in as a sure fire number 4 or 5 starter.

One downfall, as previously mentioned in this thread, is that if he goes to the minors he will be taking innings from our other young pitchers. I guess he could be a long reliever there? I don't know.

What might end up happening is that Hendrickson starts the season in the rotation and Pauley goes to the pen, but I don't know if this would solve anything.

It's not a big deal, except that we have otherwise reasonable baseball fans declaring without hyperbole, exaggeration, or reservation that David Pauley's career is OVER because he's allowed 24 hits in 11 spring innings.

[NewMarketSean]

Do I think Pauley can pitch to an ERA below 5? No. Do I think we are in the position to stick forks in pitchers who get knocked around in 11 IP in spring training? No.

Pauley could pitch to an ERA of 6 this season and still be useful to the team in some regard. Until the cavalry finally arrives, I think it's going to be that kind of bad.

[connja]

Yep, good chance he passes through waivers. I wouldn't want to lose him entirely at this point. That being said, there is still some time left this spring...

They ought to DFA him today and guarentee that no one else picks him up.

[SrMeowMeow]

Here's the thing about Spring Training. The stats come in a very small sample size, and are often very misrepresentative anyway - for example, if a pitcher is told to just work with two pitches one game.

However, ST is a great opportunity for coaches to get a better idea of a player's abilities. Small sample size doesn't really come into play here. You can see if a pitcher's repertoire/secondary stuff needs work, if a hitter has holes in his swing, if a fast player still hasn't fully grasped the art of stealing, if a fielder looks comfortable, what a player's makeup is like, how prospects handle pressure and adversity, and so on. Coaches get to take very close looks at players they haven't seen a lot of otherwise, besides scouting reports and some film.

So if Pauley is DFAed purely on the basis of his ST performance, that's fine with me. If it's done only on the basis of his stats, I'd be annoyed, but I seriously doubt the FO just takes the top 12 ERAs from ST and sticks them on the 25 man. If Pauley's getting hit hard, or chokes under pressure, or can't get out of jams, or loses his composure, or tires easily, or is a clubhouse cancer, or whatever other facet of his game is hard to quantify with stats, then they'll see that. If Pauley posts a 2.50 ERA the rest of the way out but everything's hit hard, his fastball is flat and his secondary stuff is hittable, and they DFA him, I'm as fine with that as if he posted a 6.50 ERA with the same problems.

[NCRaven]

It's not a big deal, except that we have otherwise reasonable baseball fans declaring without hyperbole, exaggeration, or reservation that David Pauley's career is OVER because he's allowed 24 hits in 11 spring innings.

Let me clarify my position. I am not saying that Pauley's career is over. I'm saying that I want his Oriole career to be over. It's not just that he's been bad, but that he's actually getting worse. If Kranitz has a silver bullet, see's that there's a minor problem that can be fixed so that Pauley can strive for mediocrity, more power to them both. I don't believe it will happen. Will it kill me if Pauley continues to get ST innings? No. But, I do not expect it to result in anything close to success. I pine for Bob Milacki and Jeff Ballard (who I swung and missed at 5 times in a row during batting practice at O's Fantasy Camp in Feb '95, so he must be good ) when I think of David Pauley. Bring back Dave Johnson or Travis Driskill before you make me watch this guy. Please.

Note: I would have hit Ballard if he had just stopped running away.

[NewMarketSean]

Who's to say Pauley wasn't working on a new pitch or throwing with a slightly altered wind-up that caused him to get hit so hard?

That is why you can never say "stick a fork in a pitcher" during ST. There are so many variables out there.

[wildcard]

As Trembley keeps saying "It's a competition". And right now Pauley there are 9 guys that are doing better then him plus 2 more that are injured that when they are ready they will pass him. That makes Pauley 12th in the competition.

His chances to recovery and earning a spot in the rotation look slim to none.

[Anonymous]

Here's the thing about Spring Training. The stats come in a very small sample size, and are often very misrepresentative anyway - for example, if a pitcher is told to just work with two pitches one game.

However, ST is a great opportunity for coaches to get a better idea of a player's abilities. Small sample size doesn't really come into play here. You can see if a pitcher's repertoire/secondary stuff needs work, if a hitter has holes in his swing, if a fast player still hasn't fully grasped the art of stealing, if a fielder looks comfortable, what a player's makeup is like, how prospects handle pressure and adversity, and so on. Coaches get to take very close looks at players they haven't seen a lot of otherwise, besides scouting reports and some film.

So if Pauley is DFAed purely on the basis of his ST performance, that's fine with me. If it's done only on the basis of his stats, I'd be annoyed, but I seriously doubt the FO just takes the top 12 ERAs from ST and sticks them on the 25 man. If Pauley's getting hit hard, or chokes under pressure, or can't get out of jams, or loses his composure, or tires easily, or is a clubhouse cancer, or whatever other facet of his game is hard to quantify with stats, then they'll see that. If Pauley posts a 2.50 ERA the rest of the way out but everything's hit hard, his fastball is flat and his secondary stuff is hittable, and they DFA him, I'm as fine with that as if he posted a 6.50 ERA with the same problems.

I'm shocked and appalled at the suggestion that factors other than stats should intrude on the evaluation process.

[Anonymous]

As Trembley keeps saying "It's a competition". And right now Pauley there are 9 guys that are doing better then him plus 2 more that are injured that when they are ready they will pass him. That makes Pauley 12th in the competition.

His chances to recovery and earning a spot in the rotation look slim to none.

This is the telling comment from DT indicating that Frobby is right about Pauley's fork and you're right about him having a chance in the slim to none range (courtesy of Roch):

"He'll pitch again. They're all going to pitch again. Like I said, it's competitive, it's opportunity. It's also results-based. This isn't intramurals."

[Boy Howdy]

Everytime I hear this pitcher's name, I think of the Burt Young character in the Rocky movies.

[byrdz]

If Pauley gets sent to the minors and isn't in this rotation, whats the big deal?

Nothing other than many have gotten behind Pauley and written off Baez for a rotation spot but now the ST numbers are confusing matters.

[SrMeowMeow]

Also, regarding the BABIP question, read this fantastic article. It statistically confirms what most casual fans already believed, that good pitchers don't get hit as hard. DIPS theory is a simplification that is very useful but it has had the unfortunate side-effect of making people think that everything besides strikeouts, walks and home runs is luck. This explains the fetishization of peripheral stats as well as the disconnect between the common sense idea that good pitchers generate weak contact and the common sabermetric conception that a ball in play is out of the hands of a pitcher regardless of their skill.

I really recommend you read it, but here are some highlights:

The BABIP phenomenon, then, is really a two-stage action. The first stage is the process of putting the batted ball in play; the second stage is the outcome that results from luck and defense. The dividing line is the moment of contact. The pitcher has no control over the second stage, the outcome, except as a fielder. But before contact, in the first stage, the pitcher wields substantial control over the batter’s attempt to hit the ball hard. The pitcher establishes his control through various inputs, including pitch type, spin, speed and location; pitch balance and sequence; deception and command; working the count; and the hitter’s history of previous plate appearances facing the pitcher.

In this model of BABIP, most of the luck occurs after contact in a chance process in which batted ball speed determines the probability of an outcome. BABIP is deterministic but random. By using strikeouts and home runs, which are 0% and 99.5% well hit respectively, DIPS admits pitcher control over the extremes of contact. Strikeout and home run rates serve as rough-and-ready proxies for a latent contact hardness variable that manifests as batted ball velocity. Home run is the only official batted ball stat about which we can reliably infer contact hardness.

Outcomes of in-park balls in play appear random because no ordinary records are kept about how well they were hit. David Gassko’s study detected a predictive relationship between strikeouts per game, home runs per game and BABIP. An explanation for these correlations might be that strikeout and home run rates approximately represent a pitcher’s tendency to allow hard hit balls, a tendency that persists as a skill.

[hoosiers]

Also, regarding the BABIP question, read this fantastic article. It statistically confirms what most casual fans already believed, that good pitchers don't get hit as hard. DIPS theory is a simplification that is very useful but it has had the unfortunate side-effect of making people think that everything besides strikeouts, walks and home runs is luck. This explains the fetishization of peripheral stats as well as the disconnect between the common sense idea that good pitchers generate weak contact and the common sabermetric conception that a ball in play is out of the hands of a pitcher regardless of their skill.

I really recommend you read it, but here are some highlights:

Agree with the above. Many times, I have criticized BABIP as it is used here. To think that a pitcher "controls" a ball hit out of the park, but not a similarly hit ball that hits the wall (that would be something allowed by luck or the defense) is poor logic.

I have seen some recent analysis that combines BABIP with line drive rates that could lead to something useful. In the meantime, to me, BABIP is not an appreciable statistic to make appropriate conclusions regarding the quality of a pitcher versus his "luck".

I've never understood the BABIP advocates. The major league average rounds to the vicinity of .300. Why was it ever a big deal that a similar % of balls hit in play became hits? Asking seriously, not facetiously - depending on the answer .

[Frobby]

David Pauley went three innings in each of his three starts, but Trembley pulled him today after 1 2/3 relief innings.

"I didn't want to extend Pauley any more," Trembley said. "It looked like he was laboring and it was just a situation to get him out. I didn't need to have him face anymore hitters. He had pitched enough. I think in spring training games, there are a lot of times when you leave guys out there, but I'm not trying to embarrass anybody. He didn't have good stuff today, and why let him stay out there and make the situation worse.

"He'll pitch again. They're all going to pitch again. Like I said, it's competitive, it's opportunity. It's also results-based. This isn't intramurals."

http://masnsports.com/2009/03/final-score-and-quotes.html