Roki Sasaki

[btdart20]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/05/report-mlb-teams-planning-for-roki-sasaki-posting-this-offseason.html

More smoke to the Sasaki to the MLB rumors.  If so, he'll be an international amateur signing.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-international-signing-bonus-pools-for-each-mlb-team/

Which gives WS contenders better odds if they're in on the bidding.  

Does a team push all of their bonus money in on one guy?  Are the O's one of those teams?

I like the risk reward here.  Do we have enough to beat a west coast team preference (LAD, SEA namely)?

[baltfan]

Already rumors he is going to the LAD

[Warehouse]

It’s going to be the Dodgers.  They have $3.1 million in bonus pool remaining this period (during which Sasaki will likely be posted) and they can trade for more.  The Orioles are second with $1.9 million remaining, but there is no chance.  

He will probably get about $4 million and then will get the league minimum for three years. Most of his income will likely be from Japanese endorsements and that income stream is maximized with the Dodgers given the synergy with Yamamato and Ohtani.

[Warehouse]

The Dodgers wouldn’t have left over $3 million unused in their bonus pool if they weren’t confident in signing him.  They don’t operate like that.

[Aristotelian]

I would absolutely be all in on this guy.

[btdart20]

19 hours ago, Warehouse said:

The Dodgers wouldn’t have left over $3 million unused in their bonus pool if they weren’t confident in signing him.  They don’t operate like that.

Why would he sign for the 2024 $3 million instead of waiting for the next bucket of money?  Maybe there's already an agreement before he's technically available?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, btdart20 said:

Why would he sign for the 2024 $3 million instead of waiting for the next bucket of money?  Maybe there's already an agreement before he's technically available?

Why did Ohtani?

They want to compete in the majors, with the team of their choice.

[btdart20]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Why did Ohtani?

They want to compete in the majors, with the team of their choice.

That's not my question.

Why would he sign for $3m with LAD when he can sign for $5+m (or whatever) with the 2025 LAD pool of money?

[Warehouse]

50 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

That's not my question.

Why would he sign for $3m with LAD when he can sign for $5+m (or whatever) with the 2025 LAD pool of money?

It’s a good question. He might sign in the 2025 pool.

Players can be posted from Nov 1 to Dec 15, after which there is a 45-day posting window.  Chiba gets 25% of bonus as posting fee.  It’s believed that Sasaki has a contractual provision that allows him to get posted this year, though Chiba likely controls the date he is posted.  The current international signing period ends Dec 15 and the next one starts Jan 15.  Thus it would make sense for him to be posted either Nov 1 (for this year’s signing period) or Dec 15 (for next year’s signing period).  

It would be logical to wait for next year’s signing period when more unused bonus pool will be available.  The one wrinkle there is that much of next year’s pool will have been verbally committed to top prospects - not to say a team wouldn’t renege on their commitments to sign Sasaki. Additionally, the Dodger’s only have $5 million next year and might be able to increase their pool in the current period to close to that with trades.

The biggest reason why I think he might sign this period is that I don’t think the Dodger’s would have saved $3 million if they didn’t think there was a good chance that he would sign in the current period.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 5/26/2024 at 8:59 PM, Warehouse said:

It’s going to be the Dodgers.  They have $3.1 million in bonus pool remaining this period (during which Sasaki will likely be posted) and they can trade for more.  The Orioles are second with $1.9 million remaining, but there is no chance.  

He will probably get about $4 million and then will get the league minimum for three years. Most of his income will likely be from Japanese endorsements and that income stream is maximized with the Dodgers given the synergy with Yamamato and Ohtani.

The rich get richer.  It's like Bill Gates dies and leaves all his money to Elon Musk.

[Just Regular]

Eno Sarris guessed him behind Jackson Jobe and Cade Horton as top pitching prospects yesterday.     Certainly entering this winter the top fascination for me will be if Andrew Friedman can pull off Juan Soto and Roki Sasaki both.     My inner Orioles fan is like "please, yes" with regard to that concept.

I imagine it was inconceivable to Brooklyn-ites in the 1920's the club would find a richer market in 30 years, but should the Ohtani coattails pull Sasaki too I will wonder more if the Tokyo Dodgers could be a thing by mid-century.     Arte Moreno could sell highest if he can hang on until then!

[Can_of_corn]

On 5/26/2024 at 8:59 PM, Warehouse said:

It’s going to be the Dodgers.  They have $3.1 million in bonus pool remaining this period (during which Sasaki will likely be posted) and they can trade for more.  The Orioles are second with $1.9 million remaining, but there is no chance.  

He will probably get about $4 million and then will get the league minimum for three years. Most of his income will likely be from Japanese endorsements and that income stream is maximized with the Dodgers given the synergy with Yamamato and Ohtani.

 

[Warehouse]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-ballpark-roki-sasakis-market/

“The Orioles can trade for enough space to surpass the Dodgers in 2024 and are also generally believed to have a competitive amount of 2025 space to make a run at Sasaki if his posting timeline ends up occurring after the new year. The January/February 2025 field would be more crowded and probably more lucrative for Sasaki and the Marines, but if he wants to be posted this offseason, that might be an indication that he doesn’t really care about maxing out his money, at least on this contract.”

[Tony-OH]

On 5/26/2024 at 9:04 PM, Warehouse said:

The Dodgers wouldn’t have left over $3 million unused in their bonus pool if they weren’t confident in signing him.  They don’t operate like that.

I'd suggest the Orioles didn't leave $1.9 million open either unless they had a plan. Not saying that plan is for Sasaki, but I'm better they have their eye on someone.

[Tryptamine]

Sasaki to the Dodgers is more or less a done deal already. I'd be shocked if he went elsewhere.