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One-third of the way through, the O’s are on a 105-win pace


Frobby

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45 minutes ago, oriole said:

With that being said, they’re not in first place. There’s room for improvement, for each time I read that this team is unsustainable, I have a thought that it better be sustainable and there should be another gear to move into. Otherwise they’ll end up 2nd in the east.

At this time last year, we were 4 games behind the Rays.   I’m not worried about the Yankees maintaining their current pace.   If we maintain ours, we will win the AL East.   

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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I get it but some of those examples like Ted Williams were when he was 40 years old.

Brett, .255 when he was 38.

Ichiro didn’t hit under .300 until he was 37.

Al Kaline hit .340 at age 20 and .255 at age 38.

I think the important thing to remember with Cal was that his combination of offense and defense at shortstop made him very valuable even when he was hitting .250. And he hit .250+ every year until he was 40. 

3 WAR is a solidly above-average season. And Cal was a 3+ win player every year from 1982-1996. Cal is tied with Jeter and Ozzie for most seasons (min 100 games at short) in history with 3+ rWAR, at 14.

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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

At this time last year, we were 4 games behind the Rays.   I’m not worried about the Yankees maintaining their current pace.   If we maintain ours, we will win the AL East.   

And if we don't win the AL East despite 100+ wins, so what? This isn't 1980, and they don't go home. They get thrown into the post-season crapshoot just like all the other playoff teams.

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At the one third mark who is not earning their salary?

I only see two players that aren't:   Hayes and Tyler Wells.

I think everyone else is contributing enough to earn their salary either through offense or defense or pitching.

What do you think?

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11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

And if we don't win the AL East despite 100+ wins, so what? This isn't 1980, and they don't go home. They get thrown into the post-season crapshoot just like all the other playoff teams.

If the Orioles don’t win AL East but make the wild card, that’s enough to get their foot in the door.

What I would like is they are HOT and clicking on all cylinders .  I want to see them go on a tear like Texas  and Arizona done last season 

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Last year at this point, the O’s were 34-20, and had outscored their opponents 265-236.  This year they’re 35-20 and have outscored opponents 272-203.  They’re on pace to outscore their opponents by 207 runs.  That’s elite.  

Now, I don’t expect the O’s to kept up this pace.  The schedule ahead is tougher than the one behind, and they have a grueling month on their doorstep.  But they’re an excellent team and I’m looking forward to the next 54 games just as much as I enjoyed these last 54.

Pegging us with an extra loss, eh? 😉  Thanks for the update, research, and insight.

Edited by Greg Pappas
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Just now, RZNJ said:

Thyago Vieira

OK,  I can see that.  You are technically correct.  But he really has not earned much yet.   5 days of a 777,500 salary is about 20,785 dollars.    You got to give the guy more of a chance than 5 days.

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22 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

If the Orioles don’t win AL East but make the wild card, that’s enough to get their foot in the door.

What I would like is they are HOT and clicking on all cylinders .  I want to see them go on a tear like Texas  and Arizona done last season 

I'd rather they be healthy, because hot and cold are almost by definition backward-looking and not predictive.

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Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

If the Orioles don’t win AL East but make the wild card, that’s enough to get their foot in the door.

What I would like is they are HOT and clicking on all cylinders .  I want to see them go on a tear like Texas  and Arizona done last season 

One of the remarkable things about the O's the last couple years is how they haven't really had extended cold or meltingly hot streaks. They're just consistently good to very good, month after month.

Since the start of '23, you have monthly records of 19-9, 16-12, 13-11, 17-9, 18-9, 18-11, 19-10, 16-9. Compare that to last year's other top teams-- the Braves had a 21-4 month, the Dodgers a 24-5 month, and the Rays a 23-6 month. 

Edited by Spy Fox
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56 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

If the Orioles don’t win AL East but make the wild card, that’s enough to get their foot in the door.

What I would like is they are HOT and clicking on all cylinders .  I want to see them go on a tear like Texas  and Arizona done last season 

And we are on this pace, despite not hitting on all cylinders. I like our chances.

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21 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

One of the remarkable things about the O's the last couple years is how they haven't really had extended cold or meltingly hot streaks. They're just consistently good to very good, month after month.

Since the start of '23, you have monthly records of 19-9, 16-12, 13-11, 17-9, 18-9, 18-11, 19-10, 16-9. Compare that to last year's other top teams-- the Braves had a 21-4 month, the Dodgers a 24-5 month, and the Rays a 23-6 month. 

When I said about O’s getting hot , I meant when they begin the playoffs. You don’t want them in a funk , you want the bats clutch and the arms shut down the opponents . When the Dodgers, Braves and yes the Orioles, these 3 had among top winning records.  What happened to those 3 teams ?   They went cold and got swept 🧹 off the field.  Meanwhile wildcard teams got hot at right time . 
But you made a good point about consistency, that itself is big help for marathon baseball season 

 

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