The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, 24fps said:

If he does a creditable job of bringing in reinforcements where needed, then I think he gets a standing ovation on opening day 2025.  My point was that he now has a lot of pressure to start acting like the GM of a perennial contender, not a rebuilding team.  That means greater risks with the potential for greater losses if things don't work out.  For example, I wouldn't like losing Kjerstad but if he brings back a player the O's need to go for it in 2024, I won't be whining about it afterward if things go south.  I think the fanbase will mostly agree, but if the appearance is that Elias didn't hold up his end while the players did, then nobody will be happy and that would include me. 

I think he's pretty close to bulletproof going into 2025. 

The only heat he could possibly get would be from ownership.

[eddie83]

7 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I really hate the 6 man rotation.  The bullpen is not deep enough as it is.  Hyde did finally adapt.  I was shocked to see him pitch Akin 3 innings.  I was going to file a missing person's report for Hyde and launch an investigation on who the manager for that game was. 

I heard Elias other day on radio. He was pretty clear the 6 man is all about lack of off days. Of course you can also argue that strategy puts too much pressure on pen.  

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, 24fps said:

If he does a creditable job of bringing in reinforcements where needed, then I think he gets a standing ovation on opening day 2025.  My point was that he now has a lot of pressure to start acting like the GM of a perennial contender, not a rebuilding team.  That means greater risks with the potential for greater losses if things don't work out.  For example, I wouldn't like losing Kjerstad but if he brings back a player the O's need to go for it in 2024, I won't be whining about it afterward if things go south.  I think the fanbase will mostly agree, but if the appearance is that Elias didn't hold up his end while the players did, then nobody will be happy and that would include me. 

On other hand just because you are rich you shouldn’t spend $100 on a Big Mac meal either. 
 

Last thing he should do is overpay with prospects to get back solid but not super upgrades. 

[Bemorewins]

48 minutes ago, 24fps said:

How many pitchers do you think will be available that are also worth having?  How many other teams will also be after them?  There will be serious competition for the handful of players the Orioles have any use for and there's no indication that there's anything like a buyer's market out there.

While it's technically true that Elias doesn't have to do anything, should the team continue to play at the current level and he decides to do nothing so he can continue to hug prospects, then I wouldn't want to be him if the O's get booted from the postseason as ingloriously as they were last season. 

None of this means Elias has to make a dumb deal, but let's not pretend he's automatically in the driver's seat.

Wait. I think you are misunderstanding my position.

Let's try again - 1) The Orioles DEFINITELY need to upgrade the pitching staff IMO. 2) No other team can hold the Orioles hostage or have leverage over them. If they try to play hardball, Elias can move on and pivot to the next seller. 3) The Orioles don't need to worry about the other competition for trading players. They have the most ammo (best prospects, best farm system in the sport). 4) I am not an advocate in any way over hugging or hoarding prospects. 5) Elias is in no way in threat of loosing his job.

[DirtyBird]

18 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Wait. I think you are misunderstanding my position.

Let's try again - 1) The Orioles DEFINITELY need to upgrade the pitching staff IMO. 2) No other team can hold the Orioles hostage or have leverage over them. If they try to play hardball, Elias can move on and pivot to the next seller. 3) The Orioles don't need to worry about the other competition for trading players. They have the most ammo (best prospects, best farm system in the sport). 4) I am not an advocate in any way over hugging or hoarding prospects. 5) Elias is in no way in threat of loosing his job.

We don’t have the most ammo if we aren’t willing to move any of our top 3 prospects.

[Just Regular]

No Mookie or no Yamamoto suddenly for LAD could shake their outlook some.    Joey Ortiz's Brewers might challenge them for that bye.

[24fps]

39 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

On other hand just because you are rich you shouldn’t spend $100 on a Big Mac meal either. 
 

Last thing he should do is overpay with prospects to get back solid but not super upgrades. 

I don't think anyone is in favor of overpaying but the definition of overpaying is largely dependent on context IMO.  If that player gets you to the postseason and beyond then bitching about the price later gets tedious in a hurry.  I'm not in favor of dumb deals, but I'm also not invested in the need to win every one of them and I think far too many people are.  Just get what you need when you need it, don't be stupid in the process and let season play out.  Just to be clear, another Jack Flaherty is not what I'm talking about.

[casadeozo]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I know Kjerstad is our fourth rated prospect. 

I wouldn’t be so dismissive about resigning Santander. He certainly will be affordable and it won’t need to be a super longterm contract.  And most of all, he produces consistently.

Resigning him defeats the entire purpose of having Mayo, and Basallo.

I would imagine it’s less than a 10% chance we resign Santander, and even smaller chance we trade anyone in the top 3. 
 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

Resigning him defeats the entire purpose of having Mayo, and Basallo.

I would imagine it’s less than a 10% chance we resign Santander, and even smaller chance we trade anyone in the top 3. 
 

You see very quick to write Basallo off of Catcher and Mayo off of third.

[eddie83]

8 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I don't think anyone is in favor of overpaying but the definition of overpaying is largely dependent on context IMO.  If that player gets you to the postseason and beyond then bitching about the price later gets tedious in a hurry.  I'm not in favor of dumb deals, but I'm also not invested in the need to win every one of them and I think far too many people are.  Just get what you need when you need it, don't be stupid in the process and let season play out.  Just to be clear, another Jack Flaherty is not what I'm talking about.

 I get the Flaherty comp but this team with no deals in is in the postseason. 
 

You are correct in that we don’t need to win deals but if making sexy moves guaranteed success the Padres would have multiple titles. 
 

I think the basic issue for the Orioles is whether there are players that are worth the big 3-4 prospects? A portion of people will equate Elias’ effort based on this. 

[eddie83]

21 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

No Mookie or no Yamamoto suddenly for LAD could shake their outlook some.    Joey Ortiz's Brewers might challenge them for that bye.

Good point. LAD have division but bye is valued how much?

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I can appreciate where you are coming from.

But the playoffs are more than luck. It’s about top talent performing against other teams top end talent. The Astros didn’t do all that winning because of luck (cheating aside lol). The Yankees teams of the mid to late 90’s were more than lucky. 

We have the kind of talent (both on the field and in the front office) and we took the extreme tanking step in order to amass dynasty/multi-championship level run.

Just simply making the playoffs and getting eliminated early, while you continue to be cheap and overly cautious (if that is what was to happen) will get old after awhile. There is a reason that the Rays and Guardians don’t have a significant fanbase/marketplace engagement for a reason (beyond being a small market). STL is a small market and the Padres were until recently, when their ownership changed and decided to spend to engage the marketplace and grow fan interest.

I agree to a certain extent. I think Houston’s success is part good fortune and part mindset. They had success and let it snowball to the point where they believe more than most. 
 

I think we already have the elite talent necessary to win a WS. It’s just a matter of getting them the needed experience. 

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would give up a lot more for Crochet than for Luzardo.  Luzardo is coming back from injury and hasn't been that good this year.  I'm not a fan of Robert with his health history.  I would like an OF with lower upside but better health if the O's are going to trade for an OF. 

Crochet’s durability hasn’t exactly been stellar.

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

We don’t have the most ammo if we aren’t willing to move any of our top 3 prospects.

I think they can legitimately improve the bullpen without giving up the big 3/4. 
 

You want a real good SP or perhaps a Mason Milller? That’s where the top prospects come into play.  

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

We don’t have the most ammo if we aren’t willing to move any of our top 3 prospects.

Where is this coming from that we aren’t willing to move our top 3. It seems to me with the overabundance of position player talent. The best way to optimize our roster this season and going forward is to turn the excess position player talent into pitching. 

One way to do this is to resign Santander to a 3- 4 year deal. That makes trading a Basallo or Mayo easier to digest. Because as is there is just no place to play all these guys.