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The 2024 Trade Deadline


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Posted (edited)

What would it take to land Luzardo?

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When it comes to assessing the trade value of a starting pitcher, it's all about how much club control he has remaining. 
The Chicago White Sox netted a bigger return for Dylan Cease than the Milwaukee Brewers did for Corbin Burnes during the offseason, not because Cease is the better pitcher, but because Burnes will be a free agent at the end of the year and Cease is controllable through the 2025 season.
Meanwhile, Luzardo won't reach free agency until after the 2026 campaign.
The 26-year-old was one of baseball's top pitching prospects during his time in the Oakland Athletics system, and while it took him some time to find his footing in the big leagues, he took a significant step forward in 2022 before turning in a legitimate breakout season last year.
He finished 10-10 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 208 strikeouts in a career-high 178.2 innings, and with Sandy Alcantara injured, he took the ball for Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Philadelphia Phillies.
He has a 4.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 50 strikeouts in 51.2 innings so far this season, and he has actually been harder to hit than he was a year ago with his opponent's batting average dropping from .239 to .226.
It took one consensus Top 100 prospect (Drew Thorpe) and two others on the fringe (Jairo Iriarte, Samuel Zavala) along with a controllable MLB reliever (Steven Wilson) for the San Diego Padres to acquire Cease, and a similar package might be in the ballpark of what it will take to acquire Luzardo.

Regarding the O's:

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Luzardo would also give them a built-in replacement for Burnes if he ends up walking in free agency this summer.

Trade Proposal: Baltimore Orioles get LHP Jesús Luzardo in exchange for OF Enrique Bradfield Jr. (No. 99 on B/R Top 100), LHP Cade Povich, IF Connor Norby
The O's have one of baseball's deepest farm systems, and they can put together a tantalizing package of players even without dangling Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo or Heston Kjerstad.
Speedy Enrique Bradfield Jr. was the No. 17 overall pick in last year's draft, left-hander Cade Povich has a 2.35 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 53.2 innings at Triple-A and infielder Connor Norby has an .881 OPS with 25 extra-base hits in 47 game playing alongside him at the top level of the minors.

 

Edited by Greg Pappas
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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Kjerstad, Norby, Stowers

I updated my post above after realizing I missed their trade suggestion: Bradfield, Povich, and Norby.  I think their proposal is too short on our end.

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The basic story Elias told about Corbin Burnes is that Orioles strategic interest was communicated early in the offseason, and Matt Arnold took a long time (beyond even Milwaukee's successful recruitment of Rhys Hoskins) to decide which path to take.

Indefinitely, Mike Elias' basic job is to know the availability and acquisition cost of any of the world's best pitchers, especially relievers as it would be awfully tough to unseat the top 3 starters that are really all the tournament asks of a pitching staff from that role.

I don't think we will see the big move until near the deadline because the GM's of some teams playing .501 baseball also want all the mid-July information they can get, and they generally have better relievers than the .375 clubs.

Jesus Luzardo would answer a 2025 question but quickly create a 2024 one if him or Grayson Rodriguez is going into the bullpen, a tricky ask Elias might prefer to veer away from.

If Suarez/Kremer are really wobbly, the Joe Saunders-Erick Fedde kind of guy would be uncertain for the tournament roster.

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When Kremer comes back you have

Burnes, Bradish, GRod, Kremer, Irvin

Suarez in the bullpen.  Povich and McDermott at Norfolk.

Absent further injury I don’t see Elias doing what it would probably take for Luzardo.  The relievers like Scott, Harvey, etc. will be cheaper.  

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Luzardo is a really interesting target.

On one hand, he is your Burnes replacement. A guy with high end starter potential (although less of a sure thing than Burnes) who you would have for 2 more years.

OTOH, it feels like he could be a ticking time bomb…and yes you can say that about most pitchers but some are worse than others.

Im not sure im giving up Povich or McDermott in a Luzardo deal because we just don’t have much depth right now after them. A year or 2 from now, the depth has the potential to look a lot better but we aren’t there yet.

Besides the obvious 3 prospects, DeLeon, Povich and McDermott are the next 3 guys I really want to keep if possible.

Everyone else is on the table although I certainly would prefer to use other intl guys vs Liranzo and Sosa.

Using some kind of combo of Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby, Fabian, Beavers, any of the veteran OFers/OHearn/Mounty and any of the draft picks from last year are amongst the group of guys I would be looking to move first.  Try to build a package(s) around that group of players and see what you can come up with.

Edited by Sports Guy
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Adding relievers should be the priority, but that doesn't mean Elias won't look to strengthen our staff or add a hitter as well.  I'm not expecting us to trade for Luzardo, but it's a possibility with the injuries that our staff has been through. 

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I think some starting pitching depth is needed but I don’t think they’ll be going after big names. I see no reason to trade someone like Povich when he could very well be the answer himself. A rotation of Burnes, Rodriguez, Bradish, and a mix between Irvin, Kremer, and Suarez is decent enough to get through the season but that depends a lot on health. Beyond that and it’s getting into dangerous territory. Povich could be useful this year but I’d much rather see him introduced to MLB through the bullpen. Then the drop off is pretty severe. I don’t see McDermott as an option until he can limit the walks, but he is a warm body to throw out there if needed. That’s alright I guess. After that and we’re talking Zimmermann? More like Zimmer-should never start another major league game for the O’s.

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38 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Adding relievers should be the priority, but that doesn't mean Elias won't look to strengthen our staff or add a hitter as well.  I'm not expecting us to trade for Luzardo, but it's a possibility with the injuries that our staff has been through. 

I agree. I think in general relievers will be the big items this July.

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18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Luzardo and Nardi for Kremer, Kjerstad, Norby, Stowers and Tavera.

No way would I be going all in on Luzardo. He would end up on the pile with Wells and Means by the end of the year.

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Remember when the Orioles dealt Britton to NYY. A big theme in the return the Orioles received was the Yankees weren’t going to be able to protect those guys on their 40 man roster. (Carroll, Rogers and Tate).  
 

With the strong depth the Orioles have and players they will need to add to the 40 by the winter the Orioles may be in a similar spot. 

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As long as the big 3 are healthy in late July I tend to doubt Elias makes a major SP acquisition at the deadline. The teams that have those arms can also deal those players in the off-season where in theory more teams would be in on the them. There just aren’t that many top SP’s around anymore.  
 

This trade deadline will be about bullpen pieces I believe. Deal the hot arms while you can and they are still healthy. 

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12 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

As long as the big 3 are healthy in late July I tend to doubt Elias makes a major SP acquisition at the deadline. The teams that have those arms can also deal those players in the off-season where in theory more teams would be in on the them. There just aren’t that many top SP’s around anymore.  
 

This trade deadline will be about bullpen pieces I believe. Deal the hot arms while you can and they are still healthy. 

We don’t have a “big 3”

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