Extend Burnes

[Rbiggs2525]

1 minute ago, Aglets said:

This thread makes me a little bit sad.  Burnes has made it pretty clear that he is going to test FA.  I just don't see a path.  Are people gonna then blame Elias or Rubenstein for not extending him before he leaves?  

I won’t blame anyone. I still put the chances between 5-10% he comes back. We are lucky to have Povich/Mcdermott as options next year. Who knows where Seth Johnson will be next year as well.

[EddeeEddee]

11 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Actually, that's exactly what it's meant for, to compare value across different types of players and different types of contributions. It's to put everything, hits, homers, steals, fielding, pitching, on the common baseline of wins.

Tom Tango and Rally and the others who developed WAR specifically were doing it (or at least one of the main goals was) to help determine value for contracts. I have had conversations with them on this very topic. See posts #236 and 240 here.

No, I don't think that's what he's saying.  He's saying he's using WAR to judge whether a contract was good or bad after it was already handed out, based on performance during the contract period.  He's not saying he's using WAR to determine what compensation should be based on prior performance.  

If top middle infielders and catchers nearly always have a higher WAR than top starting pitchers -- because that happens to be how WAR values performance -- but the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers are not in the market for middle infielders and catchers, then it stands to reason the elite starting pitchers will have bigger contracts than elite middle infielders and catchers.  Teams, especially rich teams, are always in the market for elite starting pitching.  That's why pitchers make so much -- not because teams mistakenly overvalue pitching relative to position players.  

Of course various metrics are used to judge future performance, but supply and demand dominates the discussion.  If by some miracle there is a glut of elite starting pitching, then salaries for them should fall, but that's unlikely to happen.