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O'Hearn vs Mountcastle vs Mayo vs Kjerstad


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It seems we have room for two of these four to be the starting 1B/DH the majority of the time. If it weren't for O'Hearn and Mountcastle, Mayo and Kjerstad would probably be full time MLB players, or very close, by now. 

O'Hearn (FA next year with team option): .926 April, .653 May, .783 overall (129 OPS+), historically can't hit LHP

Mountcastle: .836 April, .754 May, .808 overall (134 OPS+), slight splits

Kjerstad (AAA): 1.119 April, .918 May, 1.103 overall

Mayo (AAA): 1.059 April, injured most of May, .964 overall

Overall both O'Hearn and Mountcastle have been productive, but O'Hearn had a pretty weak May and can't hit LHP. Seems like he should be on a tighter leash than Mountcastle. I think June is a big month for O'Hearn with Kjerstad knocking on the door, and maybe Mayo too. 

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3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

It seems we have room for two of these four to be the starting 1B/DH the majority of the time. If it weren't for O'Hearn and Mountcastle, Mayo and Kjerstad would probably be full time MLB players, or very close, by now. 

O'Hearn (FA next year with team option): .926 April, .653 May, .783 overall (129 OPS+), historically can't hit LHP

Mountcastle: .836 April, .754 May, .808 overall (134 OPS+), slight splits

Kjerstad (AAA): 1.119 April, .918 May, 1.103 overall

Mayo (AAA): 1.059 April, injured most of May, .964 overall

Overall both O'Hearn and Mountcastle have been productive, but O'Hearn had a pretty weak May and can't hit LHP. Seems like he should be on a tighter leash than Mountcastle. I think June is a big month for O'Hearn with Kjerstad knocking on the door, and maybe Mayo too. 

I don't think the AAA and Major League numbers are comparable at all since it is not a one-to-one translation.

RF could be open in 2025 with a possible/likely Santander departure in FA.

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3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

It seems we have room for two of these four to be the starting 1B/DH the majority of the time. If it weren't for O'Hearn and Mountcastle, Mayo and Kjerstad would probably be full time MLB players, or very close, by now. 

O'Hearn (FA next year with team option): .926 April, .653 May, .783 overall (129 OPS+), historically can't hit LHP

Mountcastle: .836 April, .754 May, .808 overall (134 OPS+), slight splits

Kjerstad (AAA): 1.119 April, .918 May, 1.103 overall

Mayo (AAA): 1.059 April, injured most of May, .964 overall

Overall both O'Hearn and Mountcastle have been productive, but O'Hearn had a pretty weak May and can't hit LHP. Seems like he should be on a tighter leash than Mountcastle. I think June is a big month for O'Hearn with Kjerstad knocking on the door, and maybe Mayo too. 

AAA stats do not equate mlb stats. I’m not sure the metric needed to be used to indicate this. Every time we bring up a guy from AAA with little to no major league experience, they struggle mightily. I’ll take the normal ups and downs of a season from Mounty and O’Hearn over a major struggle with both Mayo and Kjerstad. I agree, O’hearn is limited in ability defensively and can only hit righties but Mounty’s defense should not be overlooked. He’s playing GG level and neither Mayo or Kjerstad have shown any signs of being that level in the slightest. Its like yall don’t understand there are more than one aspect to this incredibly difficult game.

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5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't think the AAA and Major League numbers are comparable at all since it is not a one-to-one translation.

RF could be open in 2025 with a possible/likely Santander departure in FA.

I never stated the AAA stats are comparable and did not mean to imply that, just providing the information. 

I am not proposing a change immediately. All four deserve to play and the Ryans are the incumbents. The question is how bad do they have to be, for how long, before a move is made (assuming the youngsters continue to produce in AAA)?

Do you think we just let the Ryans play out their contracts with no regard to performance? Or if O'Hearn has another .653 month could we see Kjerstad? 

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12 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I think you need to look to trade one of them during the offseason and O'Hearn is the most logical one based upon handedness.

We would have to pick up his option in order to trade him. That seems unlikely. 

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With their OPS around 800, they are both on very long leashes.  They would both need to really regress for an extended period of time and based on this year and last year, I don’t think that’s very likely.

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2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I never stated the AAA stats are comparable and did not mean to imply that, just providing the information. 

I am not proposing a change immediately. All four deserve to play and the Ryans are the incumbents. The question is how bad do they have to be, for how long, before a move is made (assuming the youngsters continue to produce in AAA)?

Do you think we just let the Ryans play out their contracts with no regard to performance? Or if O'Hearn has another .653 month could we see Kjerstad? 

To the bolded question, no. Performance always counts in professional sports. So there is likely to be a cutoff. However, I don't see it being one month of sub .700 OPS.

Also, I don't think it is very likely that O'Hearn has another month as bad as May. Nor am I very confident that Kjerstad would out OPS O'Hearn for the rest of 2024.

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17 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I think you need to look to trade one of them during the offseason and O'Hearn is the most logical one based upon handedness.

O'Hearn would bring the least back in trade.  He's a guy, who I think is more valuable to us than he would be as a trade piece. 

I don't think any of those four need to be traded.  If Santander and Hays do not return next year, that could open up at bats for all four players. 

When you add Stowers to the equation, it would become crowded again.  

Kjerstad would be the guy I would be looking to trade, based on the value he would bring back and I would consider moving Mountcastle as well.  

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4 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

O'Hearn would bring the least back in trade.  He's a guy, who I think is more valuable to us than he would be as a trade piece. 

I don't think any of those four need to be traded.  If Santander and Hays do not return next year, that could open up at bats for all four players. 

When you add Stowers to the equation, it would become crowded again.  

Kjerstad would be the guy I would be looking to trade, based on the value he would bring back and I would consider moving Mountcastle as well.  

Hays is not a FA next year. O'Hearn will be a FA unless the O's pick up his option. So Santander and O'Hearn are the most likely to open spots through attrition. 

I thought coming into this year a lot of the board was expecting regression from O'Hearn. Did one hot April give him instant job security or something? 

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21 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I never stated the AAA stats are comparable and did not mean to imply that, just providing the information. 

I am not proposing a change immediately. All four deserve to play and the Ryans are the incumbents. The question is how bad do they have to be, for how long, before a move is made (assuming the youngsters continue to produce in AAA)?

Do you think we just let the Ryans play out their contracts with no regard to performance? Or if O'Hearn has another .653 month could we see Kjerstad? 

There is little chance that O’Hearn’s role would change based on another .653 month.  Two more months, maybe.  

I note that O’Hearn only struck out 9 times in 83 PA in May despite his low OPS.  Suggests to me that there was nothing fundamentally wrong with him, he just wasn’t squaring some balls up.   I feel good about his chances of turning that around. 
 

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O’Hearn has a 124 wRC+ but his xwOBA is in the 93rd percentile. His xBA is .297 and xSLG is .548.

Mountcastle has a 130 wRC+ and is in the 76th percentile in xwOBA. His actual wOBA is almost identical to his expected one. 

It’s hard to imagine either Mayo or Kjerstad  performing better than either of them the rest of this season as rookies (Gunnar had a 124 wRC+ from 2022-2023 for example).  I foresee both of them being on the team next year unless a trade occurs, but I would lean more towards Mayo making an impact this year. Mainly due to the fact he might be able to play 3B and he’d be more useful as a DH considering they could use another RH bat more than a LH one.

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41 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Hays is not a FA next year. O'Hearn will be a FA unless the O's pick up his option. So Santander and O'Hearn are the most likely to open spots through attrition. 

I thought coming into this year a lot of the board was expecting regression from O'Hearn. Did one hot April give him instant job security or something? 

Doesn't mean he will be on the team next year.  He could be DFA'd at this rate. 

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