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O'Hearn vs Mountcastle vs Mayo vs Kjerstad


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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But that doesn't have to do with the other guys being young.

You could say the same about adding vets.

There is also risk in keeping guys too long and having to deal with them suddenly putting up an OPS+ of 70 or even 58.

In a vacuum you can just say, hey let's just dump those guys, but in reality it isn't that easy.

I’m just explaining the logic here; i’m not saying it’s what I’d do.  But young players are unproven and more volatile than older guys.   More upside in many cases, but a higher risk of serious struggles also.  That’s not to say there’s no risk with older players.  

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m just explaining the logic here; i’m not saying it’s what I’d do.  But young players are unproven and more volatile than older guys.   More upside in many cases, but a higher risk of serious struggles also.  That’s not to say there’s no risk with older players.  

Young players are also less expensive and can be easily sent down.

I don't think the risk is greater.

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2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I would say you need a righty OFer but Hays is making more money than he should (or will be next year).  I would say the same about Mounty.

Agreed on Hays.  But Mounty's expectations and reality are on a keeper path.  Even if he's not the #1 1B, he's a contributing RHB.

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11 hours ago, baltfan said:

Yes but it’s the potential drop off from the rookies vs vets too.  Have to carefully hedge.  We have had so many guys struggle when they first come up.  

Well many of those guys will be up this year, so it’s fine going forward.

 

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11 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed on Hays.  But Mounty's expectations and reality are on a keeper path.  Even if he's not the #1 1B, he's a contributing RHB.

Not questioning that at all and I have said I think he has a career best year this season.

But that’s exactly why I trade him.

In a normal year, Mounty is a decent fielding, 780-800 OPS first baseman with good power and poorish on base skills.

That has value but the value of that stops at a certain point and for me, arb2 is that point.  He is also in a park that isn’t best for him overall.

If he has a really good 2024 season, I believe his trade value is more important  to the team than his value on the field, especially with what we have coming behind him.

Mayo and Basallo will be getting first base time soon. We also will have them, Adley and Kjerstad getting DH time.  
 

The one caveat to this, at least for me, is if we trade of the prospects/young MLers between now and the offseason.  If that happens, Mounty is the guy I want to keep the most out of the group of vet players.

But if we still have all of those guys and he has a big year where the value is solid, I trade him, get what we need, save the money and play the kids.

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11 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m just explaining the logic here; i’m not saying it’s what I’d do.  But young players are unproven and more volatile than older guys.   More upside in many cases, but a higher risk of serious struggles also.  That’s not to say there’s no risk with older players.  

Watching our vets this year, I’m not sure they are any less volatile.

I think above average vet players who don’t have injury issues(past or present) are less volatile.  But that’s not what we have.

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33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not questioning that at all and I have said I think he has a career best year this season.

But that’s exactly why I trade him.

In a normal year, Mounty is a decent fielding, 780-800 OPS first baseman with good power and poorish on base skills.

That has value but the value of that stops at a certain point and for me, arb2 is that point.  He is also in a park that isn’t best for him overall.

If he has a really good 2024 season, I believe his trade value is more important  to the team than his value on the field, especially with what we have coming behind him.

Mayo and Basallo will be getting first base time soon. We also will have them, Adley and Kjerstad getting DH time.  
 

The one caveat to this, at least for me, is if we trade of the prospects/young MLers between now and the offseason.  If that happens, Mounty is the guy I want to keep the most out of the group of vet players.

But if we still have all of those guys and he has a big year where the value is solid, I trade him, get what we need, save the money and play the kids.

This is definitely tough, someone is going to have to get traded they dont have enough room to play all these guys at first. Yes the young guys are cheaper but worth more in trade. If you trade one of the young guys and you go forward RM are you getting into territory of  maybe buying out his first couple of years of FA. Hes having that kind of year. 

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12 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed on Hays.  But Mounty's expectations and reality are on a keeper path.  Even if he's not the #1 1B, he's a contributing RHB.

The season’s not over, for either for them.  It’s not over for our younger players either.  103 games to play, and probably a postseason.  Plenty of time for the situation to look quite different than it does today.   Hopefully, better and better on all fronts.  

At the moment, Mountcastle’s not even a close case.  He’s carrying a 142 OPS+, on pace for a 4.9 rWAR, 3.3 fWAR season.  If he ended up in that ballpark (by no means a sure thing), it’s a no brainer to keep him at the $8 mm or so he’d make next year.

Hays obviously will be a much tougher case, given out OF alternatives.  But he’s got a .926 OPS since coming off the IL, and I’m expecting his final numbers won’t look even remotely like his current ones.  Whether they’ll be good enough to justify keeping him at maybe $9-10 mm, I’m skeptical, but we’ll see.   
 

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17 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

This is definitely tough, someone is going to have to get traded they dont have enough room to play all these guys at first. Yes the young guys are cheaper but worth more in trade. If you trade one of the young guys and you go forward RM are you getting into territory of  maybe buying out his first couple of years of FA. Hes having that kind of year. 

And that precisely the wrong thing to do. You don’t get fooled by one year at the historical peak age of 27.

Mounty hits the ball hard and that likely isn’t going away anytime soon.

However, he has never been worth over 1.7 fWAR and while that’s fine when he isn’t making money, it’s not that great when he is.

Let someone else think he’s going to be worth that money.  This is precisely what I have been talking about.  Middling contracts rarely pay off. 

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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And that precisely the wrong thing to do. You don’t get fooled by one year at the historical peak age of 27.

Mounty hits the ball hard and that likely isn’t going away anytime soon.

However, he has never been worth over 1.7 fWAR and while that’s fine when he isn’t making money, it’s not that great when he is.

Let someone else think he’s going to be worth that money.  This is precisely what I have been talking about.  Middling contracts rarely pay off. 

But it's wouldn't be for one year.

He has an OPS+ of 142.

His OPS+ post all star break in 2023?  143.

When you are talking about someone who is going to have ~2200 at bats ~800 at bats is a decent sample size.

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Mountcastle got his OPS out of the .600's late July last year, almost exactly around the time Good Results Grayson started showing up.

That segment has grown to about 75% of a season and wRC+ among 1B his performance results are now closer to the Bryce/Freddie/Olson 150 neighborhood than the Yandy/Alonso/Vlad 130 neighborhood.

AL 1B - this could be his moment for the Austin Hays All-Star berth - Naylor/Pasquantino/France are 3-4-5 far far behind him and Vlad.

O'Hearn-Kjerstad is for me the 2024 immediate decision who the club wants to play against Luis Gil and Gerrit Cole for high stakes.

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55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And that precisely the wrong thing to do. You don’t get fooled by one year at the historical peak age of 27.

Mounty hits the ball hard and that likely isn’t going away anytime soon.

However, he has never been worth over 1.7 fWAR and while that’s fine when he isn’t making money, it’s not that great when he is.

Let someone else think he’s going to be worth that money.  This is precisely what I have been talking about.  Middling contracts rarely pay off. 

And as Frobby explained it could be well north of 1.7, and if  he does that that for the next couple of years, hes going to get paid I promise that. The historical peak age of 27, that I think you're a little sideways on that. first basemen have every right to age slower than Catchers, Pitchers, or anybody else on the roster sans bench players . Age wise there is no reason RM could not do at 32 what he is doing now

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17 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

And as Frobby explained it could be well north of 1.7, and if  he does that that for the next couple of years, hes going to get paid I promise that. The historical peak age of 27, that I think you're a little sideways on that. first basemen have every right to age slower than Catchers, Pitchers, or anybody else on the roster sans bench players . Age wise there is no reason RM could not do at 32 what he is doing now

Your theories and “I thinks” don’t really mean much.  The data is what it is. 27 is historically the peak age.  That doesn’t mean he can’t have good years beyond that. It just means if you are playing the odds and if Mounty has his best year to date this year that it’s likely he won’t match that season or if he does, he isn’t likely to do it much (maybe 1-2 seasons)

Look at Adam Jones’ career OPs numbers. That is the career I expect from Mounty but with less value as he isn’t at a premium position.

 

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

Your theories and “I thinks” don’t really mean much.  The data is what it is. 27 is historically the peak age.  That doesn’t mean he can’t have good years beyond that. It just means if you are playing the odds and if Mounty has his best year to date this year that it’s likely he won’t match that season or if he does, he isn’t likely to do it much (maybe 1-2 seasons)

Look at Adam Jones’ career OPs numbers. That is the career I expect from Mounty but with less value as he isn’t at a premium position.

 

You're the one that playing theories and I think. I reference RM as a first basemen as per aging. Listen, you're a big time poster and a great debater( you made an ass out of the WS board as per Cease trade, but on this youre wrong AD was a centerfieder, Guys like Eddie Rafael, Mattingly, Big Poppi and 100's of others that played 1b, DH that were able to play meaningful baseball  into their mid 30's if not longer. The list is endless. Back to my post, You have 0 evidence that 1b/DH age as fast as the rest

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1 minute ago, Safelykept said:

You're the one that playing theories and I think. I reference RM as a first basemen as per aging. Listen, you're a big time poster and a great debater( you made an ass out of the WS board as per Cease trade, but on this youre wrong AD was a centerfieder, Guys like Eddie Rafael, Mattingly, Big Poppi and 100's of others that played 1b, DH that were able to play meaningful baseball  into their mid 30's if not longer. The list is endless. Back to my post, You have 0 evidence that 1b/DH age as fast as the rest

What I said isn’t a theory.  It’s a time tested data point. It’s a historical point.

For every first baseman you cite, we can cite dozens who says it’s wrong.

Guys can play later. No one has ever said but on average, over a span of over 100 years of data, historically players peak around age 27 and start slight declines after.  

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