How much longer for Mullins

[Flash- bd]

7 hours ago, Malike said:

I go back to Tom Tango's quote about expected metrics quite frequently.

An interesting read if anyone is so inclined. 

Properly Diving Into Expected Stats | Community Blog (fangraphs.com)

“Tango then stressed that the expected metrics were only ever intended to be descriptive, that they were not designed to be predictive, and that if they had been intended to be predictive, they could have been designed differently or other metrics could be used.”

For what it is intended to do, which is try to separate a player from extenuating circumstances and tell the story of a player differently, expected stats have accomplished their job. Asking it to do more than that (predict future success) would be asking too much based on the purpose of the metric when formulated, which is evident in the data.

 

The most popular metrics on the website, however, are their expected stats: expected batting average (xBA), expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), expected on-base percentage (xOBP), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), and expected isolated power (xISO). Essentially, these statistics are what you’d expect based on the name; they indicate what a player’s “true talent level is” based on the quality of their contact, frequency of contact, and, depending on the batted ball, sprint speed.

This would appear to be a gold mine on the surface. With the ability to know what numbers a player deserves to have, we should be able to separate their talent level from outside circumstances, and thus better predict future performance. Yet that actually isn’t the case.

The thing is, though, they do have predictive value. How much can be argued but they are far more predictive of future performance than the actual stats. 

[Aristotelian]

I think it will be a gradual phaseout and he will stay on the roster even as a defensive sub til the end of the year even in the worst case scenario

[ChrisP]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Question from a non-FB user: what’s the reason someone would post on the OH FB page rather than here?  Are there advantages and disadvantages?   What’s the volume like here vs. there?

I follow a few Orioles groups and it’s a reactionary group and a rough read. There are some knowledgeable posters, but it’s mostly emotional whining. I can’t imagine what those folks would have posted during the dark days, but I get the impression they are mostly fair weather types as well. 

Edited June 9 by ChrisP
Typo

[Rbiggs2525]

I personally think he’s done. He will have more success for sure but not enough to warrant future long term starting role. Maybe I’m old school but nothing infuriates me more than a player struggling not making adjustments. He’s 5’8 and a Luis Arraez approach would be much better for this team than a Aaron Judge.

[Too Tall]

I

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

i wish I could say I knew why he can’t get his good swing unlocked.  I can’t believe that at 29 he’s had some drastic drop-off in physical ability.  Somehow, he’s got himself all screwed up.  He’s late and swinging under pitches all the time.  

This is where I am. I am far from an expert but watching his at bats I see a player that looks totally over matched - no confidence. Mullins is a favorite in our family so this is painful. He was hurt several times last year and had several re-hab stints in the minors. I think I remember he even had a brief issue this year during spring training. Though he seems to be running well, he has never gotten his bat back on track since last year. Since those injuries.

This game is so much mental. Rooting he can find it again. I too think the All-Star break will be the line of demarcation.

[wildcard]

The problem with optioning Mullins is the O's need two outfielders capable of playing CF.   I think Mullins stays in the majors but becomes a backup CFer. 

Cowser is going through his rookie adjustment period.    He has shown to be a hitter all the way through the minors.    Its time to stick with him and see if he can get better with the bat.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The problem with optioning Mullins is the O's need two outfielders capable of playing CF.   I think Mullins stays in the majors but becomes a backup CFer. 

Cowser is going through his rookie adjustment period.    He has shown to be a hitter all the way through the minors.    Its time to stick with him and see if he can get better with the bat.

Time to stick with Cowser?   Isn’t that what they’ve been doing?

[Flash- bd]

57 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I guess this thread, and other ones discussing the same subject, will draw a lot of activity so long as Mullins continues to struggle, and will be busy every time Mullins has a bad day.  But I suspect Mullins still has a lot more rope.  We’ve seen Urías and to a lesser extent Hays snap out of their funks, and the O’s will continue to give Mullins chances to do the same.  It’s painful to watch, but that’s what I’m expecting to happen.  The fact that he plays a good CF gives him more rope than if he were a so-so corner OF.

i wish I could say I knew why he can’t get his good swing unlocked.  I can’t believe that at 29 he’s had some drastic drop-off in physical ability.  Somehow, he’s got himself all screwed up.  He’s late and swinging under pitches all the time.  

Yeah, it's really weird for this to happen at 28/29. I've gotta think the team gives him a lot of rope to try to figure it out. How many players have posted a .775 OPS (with no season under .721) in their 25-28 year seasons to then fall off a cliff at 29? Question for @DrungoHazewood...doesn't seem like a very likely trajectory. 

[Sports Guy]

I believe Mullins should be sent down but I think we can look no further than Mateo last season.

Starting on May 1, Mateo got 267 PA. He had a 472 OPS and a wRC+ of 30.  They kept Mateo on the roster because of his speed and defense.

Now, Mullins doesn’t have the same speed but he does have good speed and the defense is still very good in a premium position that we only have 1 other real option for.

 

[Just Regular]

Roster Resource has Mullins at 4.078 service time so if the odometer accrues daily I think he is about 4.150 right now.

172 days is a season and I believe at 5.000 a player's consent on an option becomes necessary.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I believe Mullins should be sent down but I think we can look no further than Mateo last season.

Starting on May 1, Mateo got 267 PA. He had a 472 OPS and a wRC+ of 30.  They kept Mateo on the roster because of his speed and defense.

Now, Mullins doesn’t have the same speed but he does have good speed and the defense is still very good in a premium position that we only have 1 other real option for.

 

One difference.  Mateo had 0 minor league options.  Mullins has 2.

[Paul in Virginia]

43 minutes ago, ChrisP said:

I follow a few Orioles groups and it’s a reactionary group and a rough read. There are some knowledgeable posters, but it’s mostly emotional whining. I can’t imagine what those folks would have posted during the dark days, but I get the impression they are mostly fair weather types as well. 

 

Invite a few of them to one of our Game threads.  That would be interesting.

[dystopia]

23 minutes ago, Paul in Virginia said:

 

Invite a few of them to one of our Game threads.  That would be interesting.

I'm sure it wouldn't be much different than our game threads after a 2 game losing streak. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I'm sure it wouldn't be much different than our game threads after one bad inning

FTFY

[Bird Lady]

Is Daniel Johnson passable in CF?