The Braves series, June 11-13

[Allan Bryant]

3 hours ago, dystopia said:

Gotta feel for the Braves a bit. Losing Strider and Acuña is a double kick to the nuts. 

Oh definitely it sucks for them . On the bright side, NL wild card race is very wide open . Even this weakened Braves should be favored for WC slot 

Edited June 12 by Allan Bryant

[Filmstudy]

8 hours ago, SteveA said:

I don't go into games with a negative attitude, not when our team is as good as the O's have been for the last 2+ years.

But situationally there can't be a much worse situation than tonight:

• Teams that play a night game and then travel and play the next day only win about 40% of their games.   I imagine the flight git in around 2 or 3 am, add an hour for deplaning and getting home and to bed.  Not only that, we are playing an opponent who has had about 50 hours off since their last series and they have essentially had no travel in that period.
• We just put our best reliever on the IL
• We are giving our best hitter the day off.
• Atlanta is starting their best pitcher and we are starting the guy who came into the season about #8 on our starting rotation depth chart.

A win tonight would be fantastic, but I am not going to sweat it if we lose this one.

Can you provide a source for that 40% number.  I'm interested in that sort of data and that win percentage is exceptionally low.

 

[Filmstudy]

8 hours ago, SteveA said:

I don't go into games with a negative attitude, not when our team is as good as the O's have been for the last 2+ years.

But situationally there can't be a much worse situation than tonight:

• Teams that play a night game and then travel and play the next day only win about 40% of their games.   I imagine the flight git in around 2 or 3 am, add an hour for deplaning and getting home and to bed.  Not only that, we are playing an opponent who has had about 50 hours off since their last series and they have essentially had no travel in that period.
• We just put our best reliever on the IL
• We are giving our best hitter the day off.
• Atlanta is starting their best pitcher and we are starting the guy who came into the season about #8 on our starting rotation depth chart.

A win tonight would be fantastic, but I am not going to sweat it if we lose this one.

I found this study of the impact of travel and even looking at travel of 2 or 3 time zones, impacts are much smaller.  This study was done over a large number of games from 1998- and the most extreme impacts are in the neighborhood of .020 in terms of winning percentage for extreme cases.  The Braves off day prior was worth about .025 per the study.

https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/the-effect-of-travel-on-win-percentage-in-major-league-baseball/52191992

[Billy F-Face3]

I just saw on MLB that Jorge Mateo's 3 run home run was the 1st and only homer Max Fried has allowed on a 0-2 curveball in MLB.  I think that means ever in Max Fried's entire MLB career.

[Just Regular]

2021 Nebraska - looks like they got as far as the Fayetteville Regional hosted by #1 Arkansas according to this box score.

Povich pitched into the 5th with the lead the day they were eliminated.    I'd learned Schwellenbach hit the other day, but new to me from that box he was also a good enough glove to be the shortstop.

https://storage.googleapis.com/huskers-com-prod/2023/06/02/4ZHVjzAnCBL4sKIxAPxNoaSSnjC3YoVE5Z12YfKC.pdf

Schwellenbach had had a dominant relief performance the day before to beat Arkansas on their field and push the regional another day.

[Sports Guy]

This Braves team will get better but they are a great reminder of not assuming anything.

This isn’t close to the team they have had in recent years because of injuries and down years. That happens and we should never taken winning for granted.

[dystopia]

One has to kind of wonder whether they’ve kind of thrown in the towel this year after losing Acuña. That was such a huge blow. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, dystopia said:

One has to kind of wonder whether they’ve kind of thrown in the towel this year after losing Acuña. That was such a huge blow. 

And Strider.

At least some of the fanbase thinks the team has packed it in, but that's what any fanbase would be saying.

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

This Braves team will get better but they are a great reminder of not assuming anything.

This isn’t close to the team they have had in recent years because of injuries and down years. That happens and we should never taken winning for granted.

I just hope if we have a down year can still somehow make the playoffs for a role of the dice. 

[Orioles4Life21]

11 minutes ago, dystopia said:

One has to kind of wonder whether they’ve kind of thrown in the towel this year after losing Acuña. That was such a huge blow. 

They won a World Series without him but with Strider out already it was a double whammy.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, dystopia said:

One has to kind of wonder whether they’ve kind of thrown in the towel this year after losing Acuña. That was such a huge blow. 

Nah.  They have too many good hitters.  They just aren’t hitting now but they will.

[Cuellar35]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

This Braves team will get better but they are a great reminder of not assuming anything.

This isn’t close to the team they have had in recent years because of injuries and down years. That happens and we should never taken winning for granted.

100%

[Malike]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

This Braves team will get better but they are a great reminder of not assuming anything.

This isn’t close to the team they have had in recent years because of injuries and down years. That happens and we should never taken winning for granted.

They aren't this bad, but they basically all had career years last year and there was some regression due, not to mention, nearly all of the bats they locked up are now past their prime, they are all 29-33, so maybe they are just not going to be that good, 26 is the peak, I hear.

[dystopia]

15 minutes ago, Orioles4Life21 said:

They won a World Series without him but with Strider out already it was a double whammy.

Yeah. Gotta be hard not to get demoralized after that. They're professionals but they're human. 

[Just Regular]

Even last year having known Matt Olson and Sean Murphy as more good not great AL many years regulars, it was hard to wrap my brain about what they were accomplishing.

It looks like the Phillies without Realmuto and Trea will follow Atlanta's without Acuna and Strider act.