Maikol Hernandez: The classic example of Latin American Volatility

[Tony-OH]

I feel bad for writing this but Maikol Hernandez clearly can not hit professional pitching.

He was Orioles first top 50 rated International prospect when he was signed for $1.2 million. He was rated higher than Samuel Basallo though I remember Koby Perez saying Basallo had a higher ceiling. I'd say he was right on the mark on that one.

As a Venezuelan, he probably had less eyes on him then if he was Dominican, but a lot of this just goes to show how hard it is to access these guys at 14 and 15 years old or younger, when these agreements need to be made.

Hernandez is the first of several high priced shortstops (Luis Almeyda and Emilio Sanchez) that have struggled to hit in the early parts of their careers. Now the book is not even close to be written on the last two, but neither have gotten off to good starts and Almeyda has been very injury prone in his short career. When you add in Braylin Tavera's struggles in Delmarva before getting hurt, the million dollar guys have all struggled to hit outside of Basallo.

Luckily, Leandro Arias, who I believe was a $500K guy is really starting to hit in Delmarva and Thomas Sosa shows flashes of his promise and was also a just a $300K guy. 

In the end, it's such a crap shoot and you can see why the Orioles tend to spread out their money vs throwing them at the million guys too often. 

It also may be a good case for a draft. This would allow clubs to evaluate these guys at least at 16 or 17 years old vs 13-15. Still a tough gig, but it would seems to be a little better than throwing millions at teenagers with agreements that were made when they were 14 years old.

[EdwinRip]

Yet he continues to play everyday.  When will it end? 

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Yet he continues to play everyday.  When will it end? 

I would guess after the draft when a bunch of new guys will get pumped into the system and a lot of cuts will be made. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, EdwinRip said:

Yet he continues to play everyday.  When will it end? 

Well, he's supposed to be a good defensive shortstop but he's been pretty brutal this year defensively too. At least he got a pretty big pay day and hopefully will be able to use that to better himself and his family, because the only reason he's still playing at all is because they invested so much money in him.

[Sports Guy]

Keep taking swings but there will be a ton of failure.

That said, this stuff does illustrate that how much you spend on any one player isn’t really what’s important.  It’s that you are getting as many lottery tickets as possible and hoping to develop them.

[Fiver6565]

yeah one flameout (or more) doesn't bother me one bit.  I'd rather see us fail w/ guys than not try at all, as I'm sure pretty much we all would agree.

[DocJJ]

I am sad to say our International Pipeline has been really disappointing.  Basallo certainly seems like the best of the bunch and may become an impact player down the road.  Arias has shown some potential, and we have a few pitchers in the lower ranks of the minors showing some potential...  but the position prospects have by and large completely tanked....   

[Tony-OH]

27 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

yeah one flameout (or more) doesn't bother me one bit.  I'd rather see us fail w/ guys than not try at all, as I'm sure pretty much we all would agree.

Obviously you really didn't get the point of the thread if that is all you got out of it. I'll be honest, if that's the best you have to offer, please try and avoid quoting me in your replies as to not waste my time.

 

[Fiver6565]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Obviously you really didn't get the point of the thread if that is all you got out of it. I'll be honest, if that's the best you have to offer, please try and avoid quoting me in your replies as to not waste my time.

 

A. I didn't quote you, or anyone else, in my reply

B. What are you talking about?  I'm agreeing with you (and the post from SG that preceded my original post) that Hernandez is a flame out, that he won't be the last, and that its not a big deal because we're at least in the market.

 

I don't get what the issue is or what I didn't 'get' from the thread.

[Fiver6565]

22 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

I am sad to say our International Pipeline has been really disappointing.  Basallo certainly seems like the best of the bunch and may become an impact player down the road.  Arias has shown some potential, and we have a few pitchers in the lower ranks of the minors showing some potential...  but the position prospects have by and large completely tanked....   

Most of these kids are still 17 or 18, and the ones who have made it to full season ball have only been there for a couple of months.  A bit early for them to have 'completely tanked', no?

[baltimoriole]

All you need is a couple to pop. If 8 fail but we get basallo and de Leon, I call it a success.

[86this]

Too late to try him as a pitcher?

[yark14]

Plenty of volatility in procuring and developing prospects, regardless of what region they came from.  Carter Young is a prime example.

[btownoriole]

Tony - given how woefully underinvested the O’s were before Elias, how are you assessing Perez to date?  He obviously was way behind the curve when he started, and it takes more time to develop international talent given the ages at which they’re signed, but it’s been 5 years and Basallo is the only big prospect to date.  Just feels like the O’s should be further along.  

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, btownoriole said:

Tony - given how woefully underinvested the O’s were before Elias, how are you assessing Perez to date?  He obviously was way behind the curve when he started, and it takes more time to develop international talent given the ages at which they’re signed, but it’s been 5 years and Basallo is the only big prospect to date.  Just feels like the O’s should be further along.  

Tony has Luis DeLeon in his top ten.  How often can you expect to produce a Basallo.  Chace and Portes are middling prospects at Aberdeen.   Our first really up-to-speed class was the Braylin Tavera class in 2022.  Sosa, Arias, and Tavera made the end-of-season FCL top 20 prospects.    Arias is doing well as a 19 yo at Delmarva.  Sosa is holding is own but has strong underlying metrics.  Tavera struggled and got injured but made consistent contact.   Hopefully he gets back and does what Arias and Aron Estrada have done, which is adjust after rough starts.  Speaking of Estrada, he's been on fire.  

Elis Cuevas, 19, also from that class, was leading the FCL in hitting as of Sunday and was top 5 in OPS.   Lots of other good stories. 

Think about it.  Basallo is 19 and came from Perez 2021 signing class when Perez was winging it and waiting for scraps, which is what Basallo was.  First deep class was 2022 and those guys are only 19 now.  How many top 100 prospects are 19?