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Pick your 40 man roster (protect list) for Nov 20th.


wildcard

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The O's have a bunch of players that potential need to be protected this off season.   Since there are not a lot of trades after the season before November 20th when the rosters are set for the Rule 5 draft, the time to think about trading players that don't make the 40 man roster in November is at the trade deadline.

Here is the November 40 man roster as I see it right now.

1.  GRod

2. Kremer

3. Povich

4. Suarez

5. Irvin

6.McDermott

7. S. Johnson

8.  Wells

9. Young

10. Bradish

11. Bautista

12. Kimbrel

13. Cano

14 Coulombe

15.  Perez

16. Akin

17. Tate

18.  Webb

19. Baker - Out of options in 2025

20. Vespi - Out of options in 2025

21. McGough

22. Davidson

23. Held

24. Adley

25.  McCann  - Signed for one year.

26.  Mountcastle

27.  Holliday

28.  Gunnar

29.  Westburg

30.  Mayo

31. O'Hearn

32.  Urias

33. Mateo

34. O' Hearn

35. Norby

36.  Cowser

37.  Kjerstad

38.  Stowers

39.   Mullins - To be traded but not before Nov 20th

40.  Hays - To be traded but not before Nov 20th

41. Cook

42. Daniel Johnson

Players not included on the 40

FA:  Burnes, Means, Santander

Out of options and will not make the 26 man roster: Zimmermann

On the 40 man roster but probably will not be protected: Stoudt, Krook, Heasley

Probably will not be protected:  Handley, Hunt, Vavra, Banuelos, Maton, Haskin, Armbruester,  Corbin Martin, Luis Gonzalez, Charles, Bowens, Collin Burns, Rhodes, Brnovich, Pham, Ryan Watson, Ryan Long, Tevera, Strowd  

Bottom line:   Things will change over the next 6 weeks but  if Elias trades Norby and two  pitchers such as Tavera, Held or Strowd  for a  high leverage reliever he will clear the way to protect everyone on my current protect list.

Trading Hays and Mullins in December or January opens space for established pitchers over the winter.   If they want to open at bats for Mayo, O'Hearn may be traded this off season.

Who do you see the O's protecting and how does that impact who  the O's trade at the deadline?

 

 

Edited by wildcard
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  • wildcard changed the title to Pick your 40 man roster (protect list) for Nov 20th.
9 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Who thinks of this stuff in the middle of June?

I don't think it will impact the trade deadline at all.

I think they can add depth pieces in a deal. They aren’t obviously using the players they can’t protect to get big time guys. 

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17 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I think they can add depth pieces in a deal. They aren’t obviously using the players they can’t protect to get big time guys. 

There is no assurance who Elias would or would not trade.  So I think it likely that any player with less value than Norby could be included in the deal.   Elias would probably prefer to trade players that need to be protected to make room on the roster.

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Good question. I have been so focused on this season I have given zero thought to the 40 Man and Rule 5.

I think Santander gets QO and O'Hearn goes FA. We could lose both.

I don't really see any young guys that "must" be protected other than Mayo, McDermott, and S. Johnson.

D. Johnson is having a nice season as CF is a need but not sure he belongs on the 40 man.

Davidson is having a nice season. I could see him taking a deep depth spot to replace Zimmermann. 

 

 

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I don’t think it will meaningfully affect who they are looking to deal at the trade deadline. The Orioles will be more inclined to include guys who they aren’t planning to add to the 40 as the last pieces in a deal, but there isn’t a huge crunch that means they NEED to clear 40 man roster space.

Of all the guys after Hays on that list, I think Strowd and Young are the only ones who are high probability of being added right now. None of the other borderline guys have much trade value at all.

Note Baker is out of options next year, he’s going to have to pitch well the rest of the year to warrant his spot. 

I also think Luis González is going to get a look at some point and will ultimately become the new Vespi for 2025, optionable lefty riding the Norfolk shuttle. 

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Strowd, Hunt, McGough, and Tavera will not be put on the 40 man and will be eligible for the rule 5 or minor league FA if they qualify.   Mullins and Hays are both non tender candidates.   They will not be tendered and then traded.  If either is tendered they're staying.    Isn't Coulombe a FA this year?

Cook, Johnson, and Heid could be added, none of them could be added, or some could be added.   All three will  not.

That is all.

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47 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Good question. I have been so focused on this season I have given zero thought to the 40 Man and Rule 5.

I think Santander gets QO and O'Hearn goes FA. We could lose both.

I don't really see any young guys that "must" be protected other than Mayo, McDermott, and S. Johnson.

D. Johnson is having a nice season as CF is a need but not sure he belongs on the 40 man.

Davidson is having a nice season. I could see him taking a deep depth spot to replace Zimmermann. 

 

 

O's have an option on O'Hearn for next year at 7.5m.   I think Elias picks up the option.   Then he might trade him to make room for Mayo.

If D. Johnson does not get called up this year they have an option on him next year.   I am guessing they may put him on the 40 man roster to add OF depth because he has been doing so well.   Really just a guess.

You may have a point on Davidson if he keeps doing well.

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6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Strowd, Hunt, McGough, and Tavera will not be put on the 40 man and will be eligible for the rule 5 or minor league FA if they qualify.   Mullins and Hays are both non tender candidates.   They will not be tendered and then traded.  If either is tendered they're staying.    Isn't Coulombe a FA this year?

Cook, Johnson, and Heid could be added, none of them could be added, or some could be added.   All three will  not.

That is all.

O's have an option on Coulombe which they will excerise is he is healthy.

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8 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Why would we sign McCann to an extension?

Because they don't have another backup catcher they can handle the pitching staff like he does.   That is the most important function of a backup catcher.  His salary will probably be 3 to 4m is my guess.  They can afford that.

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Because they don't have another backup catcher they can handle the pitching staff like he does.   That is the most important function of a backup catcher.  His salary will probably be 3 to 4m is my guess.  They can afford that.

Pretty sure they can pick up a replacement level catcher for less.

Any backup that plays as much as he does should have an OPS+ of at least 55.

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10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Because they don't have another backup catcher they can handle the pitching staff like he does.   That is the most important function of a backup catcher.  His salary will probably be 3 to 4m is my guess.  They can afford that.

Why only one year then? If he’s the only guy that can handle a pitching staff, better lock him up for longer.

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