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How important is this Yankees series, really?


Frobby

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The O’s come into the Bronx 47-24, three wins behind the 50-24 Yankees but tied in the loss column.  Possible outcomes:

Yankees sweep Orioles and are 4.5 games up, 3 in the loss column.  

Yankees win series 2-1 and are 2.5 games up, 1 in the loss column.

Yankees lose series 2-1 and are 0.5 games up, but 1 down in the loss column.  

Yankees are swept by Orioles and are 1.5 games down, 3 in the loss column.  

Any way you slice it, the Orioles will have 88 games left to play after this series, and the Yankees 85.   The teams will play each other 6 more times, including 3 in Yankee Stadium the final week of the year.   

We could look at it this way: the O’s took 3 of 4 in the first series and took the division lead from them, and the Yankees made it pretty irrelevant by playing their butts off for the next 7 weeks.  

So, I’m not ready to say this series is no more important than any other random series, but whatever happens won’t have a huge impact on who wins the AL East.   It’s still a marathon that’s less than halfway over. 

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I think your last paragraph pretty much sums it up. It’s as important as any other division series. 
 

And we’ve played extremely well in the division for a long time now. I don’t expect that to change much this week. 

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Is it make or break? No. But is it important? Yes. Obviously, the team doesn't think it's any more important due to the pitching they've lined up for the series.

I'll be happy if we win one and ecstatic if we win 2 or 3.

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3 minutes ago, Malike said:

It's a series in mid-June, it's no more important than any other series this month, in my opinion. 

I think it’s a little more important than any other mid June series. Any series against a team you’re close to in the standings is important, but there’s a lot of games to play. 

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4 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Must win series.

We need to keep the streak on not losing a series to AL East opponent 

My guy, you are on record saying the season is over after losing Bradish. 

If the O's lose this series, it sucks yeah, but it doesn't sink the season. I don't think it's a must win. It's an important one for sure.

Is it a must win for the Yankees? If they lose the series, they'll be like a game back of us. 

Edited by interloper
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We are both over 98% to make the playoffs. From that standpoint it makes very little difference. 

We have a 30% chance or so to win the division. Right now as the favorites to win the division, the Yankees have a 14% chance to win the WS to our 9%. It's possible if we win the series to give us closer to 50% chance of the division, that could boost our WS odds by 1-2%, with another 1-2% if we eventually win the division.

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Just now, Aristotelian said:

We are both over 98% to make the playoffs. From that standpoint it makes very little difference. 

We have a 30% chance or so to win the division. Right now as the favorites to win the division, the Yankees have a 14% chance to win the WS to our 9%. It's possible if we win the series to give us closer to 50% chance of the division, that could boost our WS odds by 1-2%, with another 1-2% if we eventually win the division.

Fangraph's odds are bogus

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It's important.  Any time you go head to head with the team that's in first place in the division and you get a chance to overtake them, it's important.

The pack has separated in the AL East, it's us and them.  And, really, we're probably the two best teams in the entire American League.  

It's not, like, final weekend of 1982 importance, but it's important.  

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