Ronnie Welty

[Stotle]

From Baseball America's 2009 Organization Talent Rankings Article :

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-talent-rankings/2009/267864.html

Prepare For Takeoff: Outfielder Ronnie Welty has a lanky body and needs to add strength to grow into his frame. If he does, he could become a prototypical right fielder, with power and arm strength. His two seasons in a wood-bat junior college league in Arizona helped him make a quick transition to pro ball.

Very nice. And I agree (for whatever that is worth ).

[Jenius]

Chris Vinyard also played at Chandler-Gilbert. In fact, Welty and Vinyard put up rather comparable numbers there at about the same age (Welty's were a bit better, and he also has the advantage of being a better athlete and defender). Vinyard, perhaps not coincidentally, also got off to a fast start in his pro career in short season ball. Hopefully Welty sustains his success, and develops his plate patience, as he progresses into full season ball. That BB:K ratio is, as Tony said, extremely concerning. On the other hand, I agree with Stotle that you have to consider his progression during the season in that area. I'll be very interested to see how he does this year, particularly if he gets any extended time at Delmarva.

[Stotle]

Chris Vinyard also played at Chandler-Gilbert. In fact, Welty and Vinyard put up rather comparable numbers there at about the same age (Welty's were a bit better, and he also has the advantage of being a better athlete and defender). Vinyard, perhaps not coincidentally, also got off to a fast start in his pro career in short season ball. Hopefully Welty sustains his success, and develops his plate patience, as he progresses into full season ball. That BB:K ratio is, as Tony said, extremely concerning. On the other hand, I agree with Stotle that you have to consider his progression during the season in that area. I'll be very interested to see how he does this year, particularly if he gets any extended time at Delmarva.

That's right! Vineyard was a Chandler-Gilbert guy!

Good post -- thanks for the info.

[Tony-OH]

I think that's certainly reasonable. I also think it somewhat ignores that he dropped his K-rate from every 3.5 ABs in his first two months to almost every 6 ABs in the last third of the season. As QBsILLEST1 pointed out, he was off a lot of radars because he wasn't a D-I player (most don't even pay attention to D-I college ball, let alone JuCo ball), but if we can put high school players on prospect lists, JuCos are certainly fair game. It's all personal preference.

For those interested, Chandler-Gilbert CC (Airzona) is a very solid program, producing some note-worthy MLers (and prospects) incuding Ethier, Sarfate, Eric Young Jr. (with Ethier transfering to Arizona State, eventually). I'm sure there are more, though I imagine most ended up as MiL filler.

Ok, well here are some stats you may have ignored as well. Welty hit .368 with a 7 BB-14 K ratio from the 6th inning on while hitting just .278 with a 2 BB-34 K ratio in the first five innings.

What's the significance some may ask? In the low minors, almost anyone who is considered a major league prospect is a starter which means the better pitchers are usually found in the first five innings. The later innings are usually filled with minor league filler guys.

Again, Welty is a guy with some tools that make him certainly worth watching, but he has major statistical red flags that he will need to improve upon before he will become a true prospect. Let's remember, he was a 20th round draft pick out of a community college, a college that his heavily scouted with over 40 former alumni who have played minor league ball and two major league players (Dennis Sarfate and Andre Either) according the The Cube. This was a guy who has some sort of deficiency to be passed by all major league teams 19 times. It was not his size because at 6-4, 200 pounds he's a prototypical body.

Taking that into consideration and the fact that his K-BB ratio was poor, his power numbers were low, especially for playing in a Bluefield for half his games, and the fact he hit much better against late inning pitching makes me question his "prospect status" that some seem willing to give him already.

Now saying all that, I've never really seen Welty play, so I'm certainly willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and withhold a final judgment on him, but the early indications are he'll need to prove a lot of early indicators wrong.

[Stotle]

Ok, well here are some stats you may have ignored as well. Welty hit .368 with a 7 BB-14 K ratio from the 6th inning on while hitting just .278 with a 2 BB-34 K ratio in the first five innings.

What's the significance some may ask? In the low minors, almost anyone who is considered a major league prospect is a starter which means the better pitchers are usually found in the first five innings. The later innings are usually filled with minor league filler guys.

Again, Welty is a guy with some tools that make him certainly worth watching, but he has major statistical red flags that he will need to improve upon before he will become a true prospect. Let's remember, he was a 20th round draft pick out of a community college, a college that his heavily scouted with over 40 former alumni who have played minor league ball and two major league players (Dennis Sarfate and Andre Either) according the The Cube. This was a guy who has some sort of deficiency to be passed by all major league teams 19 times. It was not his size because at 6-4, 200 pounds he's a prototypical body.

Taking that into consideration and the fact that his K-BB ratio was poor, his power numbers were low, especially for playing in a Bluefield for half his games, and the fact he hit much better against late inning pitching makes me question his "prospect status" that some seem willing to give him already.

Now saying all that, I've never really seen Welty play, so I'm certainly willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and withhold a final judgment on him, but the early indications are he'll need to prove a lot of early indicators wrong.

All fair points. Next volley:

• Your innings breakdown is inconsistent with regards to the point you're trying to make -- he batted .300 in the third inning, .370 in the fourth inning, and .391 in the sixth inning (that can't be all against relief pitching); he also hit .280 in the seventh -- while blowing up in the 8th and 9th (where he had about half as many ABs per inning as the other 7 innings, so a smaller sample size)
• JuCo players will almost always go later in the draft simply because of their competition (this is particularly true of position players since pitchers can be judged on stuff, velocity and mechanics regardless of competition; players are hitting against poorer pitching so it's more difficult to grade out)
• He slugged higher away from Bluefield
• As he cut down on strikeout he raised his SLG over 200 points in August and raised his onbase percentage over 250 points (maintaining his walk rate throughout the year)
• His linedrive percentage was highest in the fourth inning, followed by the 8th (with half the sample size) and then the third

Not that I think any of this particularly proves one thing or the other. I look at Welty's skillset and grade that -- I understand the approach that requires "proof" through performance. It's part of the reason I rated Hoes higher than any of the other lists I've seen (save for Keith Law, who had him in the O's top 10, as well). In evaluating, I'm more than willing to admit sometimes I'm early to the party (which is great) and sometimes I show up and the party never starts (which is not as fun).

[Lucky Jim]

All fair points. Next volley:

• Your innings breakdown is inconsistent with regards to the point you're trying to make -- he batted .300 in the third inning, .370 in the fourth inning, and .391 in the sixth inning (that can't be all against relief pitching); he also hit .280 in the seventh -- while blowing up in the 8th and 9th (where he had about half as many ABs per inning as the other 7 innings, so a smaller sample size)
• JuCo players will almost always go later in the draft simply because of their competition (this is particularly true of position players since pitchers can be judged on stuff, velocity and mechanics regardless of competition; players are hitting against poorer pitching so it's more difficult to grade out)
• He slugged higher away from Bluefield
• As he cut down on strikeout he raised his SLG over 200 points in August and raised his onbase percentage over 250 points (maintaining his walk rate throughout the year)
• His linedrive percentage was highest in the fourth inning, followed by the 8th (with half the sample size) and then the third

Not that I think any of this particularly proves one thing or the other. I look at Welty's skillset and grade that -- I understand the approach that requires "proof" through performance. It's part of the reason I rated Hoes higher than any of the other lists I've seen (save for Keith Law, who had him in the O's top 10, as well). In evaluating, I'm more than willing to admit sometimes I'm early to the party (which is great) and sometimes I show up and the party never starts (which is not as fun).

That's why it's good to be your own party. Ask Old Fan or JTrea.

[Ruzious]

Your innings breakdown is inconsistent with regards to the point you're trying to make -- he batted .300 in the third inning, .370 in the fourth inning, and .391 in the sixth inning (that can't be all against relief pitching); he also hit .280 in the seventh -- while blowing up in the 8th and 9th (where he had about half as many ABs per inning as the other 7 innings, so a smaller sample size)

I'm not getting the logic of breaking out the 3rd and 4th innings from the 1st, 2nd, and 5th. Isn't that pretty much irrelevant to Tony's point? The 1st 5 innings as a whole are significant - but the difference between the separate innings within the 5 are not - unless I'm missing something.

[QBsILLEST1]

I'm not getting the logic of breaking out the 3rd and 4th innings from the 1st, 2nd, and 5th. Isn't that pretty much irrelevant to Tony's point? The 1st 5 innings as a whole are significant - but the difference between the separate innings within the 5 are not - unless I'm missing something.

Because Tony was saying that Welty only hits at the end of the game when all the retreads/filler types are pitching. But if in the 3rd and 4th innings Welty also hit well, then it dismisses the point that Welty only hits well at the end of the ball game against worse competition

[Ruzious]

Because Tony was saying that Welty only hits at the end of the game when all the retreads/filler types are pitching. But if in the 3rd and 4th innings Welty also hit well, then it dismisses the point that Welty only hits well at the end of the ball game against worse competition

Either you didn't pay attention to what I said, or I'm still missing something. Breaking it out inning by inning is irrelevant. It's the 1st 5 innings as a whole that's relevant.

[Tony-OH]

Either you didn't pay attention to what I said, or I'm still missing something. Breaking it out inning by inning is irrelevant. It's the 1st 5 innings as a whole that's relevant.

It's just another thing to look out as a whole. You can't really break things down inning by inning because of the small sample sizes so it's easier to just use 1-5, 6-9 innings for the low minor leagues.

Welty did make Delmarva and had a very good spring so it will be interesting to see how he does. I'll be rooting for him to overcome his red flags, but my track record is pretty good on identifying these guys at a young point in their careers.

[Tony-OH]

Because Tony was saying that Welty only hits at the end of the game when all the retreads/filler types are pitching. But if in the 3rd and 4th innings Welty also hit well, then it dismisses the point that Welty only hits well at the end of the ball game against worse competition

No, what I showed was that Welty hit much better in the 6-9th inning time frames when most of the prospect are not pitching. You can't really break it down by inning because of the small sample sizes.

[crawdad]

No, what I showed was that Welty hit much better in the 6-9th inning time frames when most of the prospect are not pitching. You can't really break it down by inning because of the small sample sizes.

Honestly, trying to 'prove' anything in short season statistics is an activity wrought with disappointment and errors in conclusion. What I think the main issue here is that this is a difference in opinion of two different scouting perspectives. Bringing in quantitative analysis in this argument is not making one side stronger than the other because the power of the sample is poor.

I think Tony may have a point with Welty teeing off on poor pitching if only because that typically is what high K, low walk guys do. The tend to hit mistakes. A JuCo guy getting picked in the 20th is a bit too general of a take, though. A significant number of JuCos are picked late and wind up doing well. Of course, most turn out to be nothing, but saying that 19 teams passed up on a guy is not really a great argument.

Some JuCos just from the 20th round: Chuck James, Fred Lewis, Jose Bautista, Cliff Lee, Tim Redding

I digress on that. So, yeah, I think Tony's use of stats (as well as Nick's use of innings, but I think he knows that . . . I hope he knows that) is flawed here and the JuCo argument is thin . . . but I typically agree with him. Nick and I placed him at ~24 amongst the Oriole prospects last fall. He was slightly more bullish and I was slightly more bearish on the guy.

Anyway . . . it will certainly be interesting to see if he can muster anything with a full season of ball ahead of him. My bet is that he falls flat . . . like most of the 20-30th ranked prospects in any organization.

[Tony-OH]

Honestly, trying to 'prove' anything in short season statistics is an activity wrought with disappointment and errors in conclusion. What I think the main issue here is that this is a difference in opinion of two different scouting perspectives. Bringing in quantitative analysis in this argument is not making one side stronger than the other because the power of the sample is poor.

I think Tony may have a point with Welty teeing off on poor pitching if only because that typically is what high K, low walk guys do. The tend to hit mistakes. A JuCo guy getting picked in the 20th is a bit too general of a take, though. A significant number of JuCos are picked late and wind up doing well. Of course, most turn out to be nothing, but saying that 19 teams passed up on a guy is not really a great argument.

Some JuCos just from the 20th round: Chuck James, Fred Lewis, Jose Bautista, Cliff Lee, Tim Redding

I digress on that. So, yeah, I think Tony's use of stats (as well as Nick's use of innings, but I think he knows that . . . I hope he knows that) is flawed here and the JuCo argument is thin . . . but I typically agree with him. Nick and I placed him at ~24 amongst the Oriole prospects last fall. He was slightly more bullish and I was slightly more bearish on the guy.

Anyway . . . it will certainly be interesting to see if he can muster anything with a full season of ball ahead of him. My bet is that he falls flat . . . like most of the 20-30th ranked prospects in any organization.

The key thing here is to take it all into consideration, not just some of the information. When you combine the fact that the guy is 20th round JUCO guy despite having a protypical body, and combine that with red flag plate discipline and a lack of power in the Appalachian league, and it's proper to assess that it's way too early to to start putting the guy into a top prospect list.

Again I'm not making a conclusion on the guy yet because it's way too early, but the early indications are there is something amiss here regardless of the tools. Now I like to scout guys myself and I haven't done that yet with Welty, and the end I might very well like him, but judging by the total package so far I think it's premature to start putting him on a prospect list in my opinion.

Of course you have to have your own criteria and sometimes you go with a hunch, but I've been burned by guys like this too many times in the early part of my career doing this and I now look hard at guys and don't overlook red flag stats despite the tools that may jump out at me.

Good discussion though and I think it shows that just like professional scouts, there will always be differing opinions on how to make assessments on guys.

[Stotle]

I'm not getting the logic of breaking out the 3rd and 4th innings from the 1st, 2nd, and 5th. Isn't that pretty much irrelevant to Tony's point? The 1st 5 innings as a whole are significant - but the difference between the separate innings within the 5 are not - unless I'm missing something.

If the point is that Welty struggles against starters, there shouldn't be this much discrepency between each inning in which he faces a starter. It actually looks pretty random across the nine innings, with the exception of the 8th and 9th which acount for half as many AB per inning as the other seven. I think once we parse this low the data set becomes a little small to be emblematic of anything, anyway. Heck, I'm not even saying his nice august is emblematic of anything -- I just think it's something to keep in mind if you're going to point to his so-rate as a "knock". And even as much as I like Welty, the odds are against him succeeding and of course I agree his SZ command and contact rate will be important to monitor.

[Stotle]

The key thing here is to take it all into consideration, not just some of the information. When you combine the fact that the guy is 20th round JUCO guy despite having a protypical body, and combine that with red flag plate discipline and a lack of power in the Appalachian league, and it's proper to assess that it's way too early to to start putting the guy into a top prospect list.

Again I'm not making a conclusion on the guy yet because it's way too early, but the early indications are there is something amiss here regardless of the tools. Now I like to scout guys myself and I haven't done that yet with Welty, and the end I might very well like him, but judging by the total package so far I think it's premature to start putting him on a prospect list in my opinion.

Of course you have to have your own criteria and sometimes you go with a hunch, but I've been burned by guys like this too many times in the early part of my career doing this and I now look hard at guys and don't overlook red flag stats despite the tools that may jump out at me.

Good discussion though and I think it shows that just like professional scouts, there will always be differing opinions on how to make assessments on guys.

I agree.

And yes tony and jon I agree inning by inning is not a good breakdown here. Heck, I think we all agree the season itself isn't enough to go one way or the other. As pointed out, it was a small point to somewhat counter tony's.

Anyway, looking forward to the MiL season starting. Should be fun.