AL playoff picture

[Fiver6565]

I think you can count on Det at Bal next Tuesday at this point.  Today was the last chance for the Tigers to lose a game, in all likelihood, and KC will have a tough task trying to sweep a motivated Braves team - and possibly dodging some weather as well.  Hard to imagine a scenario where Det isn't the 5 (or extreme worst case for us, the 4, technically).

The only caveat is if the baseball gods somehow imbue the ChiSox with a little magic of their own to allow them to get to 40 wins and at least tie for the worst record (least wins) in modern history, rather than owning it by themselves (in much the same way they tied, not beat, the 21 game losing streak earlier this year).

[KojiSplit]

1 minute ago, Three Run Homer said:

We need to make sure we win one more game so that we host the WC series.   

KC holds the tiebreaker over Detroit, so if Detroit is tied or up by only one game on Sunday, they will face an interesting choice regarding Tarik Skubal.  If I'm not mistaken, Skubal pitched on Tuesday, so his turn comes up again on Sunday.  If the Tigers have to use him Sunday then he's not available to pitch in the WC round.  

How much does Detroit prefer playing us versus playing Houston?  If they don't care, then they will probably hold Skubal out on Sunday and let the chips fall where they may.   It doesn't look likely that Detroit will need to win on Sunday just to make the playoffs.  

AJ Hinch has stated that as long as KC has a playoff spot locked up Skubal will be saved for WC game 1 regardless of the playoff opponent.

[LookitsPuck]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

You make it sound like a difficult task or something.   We haven't had a 4 game losing streak since before the All Star Break, as badly as we've played.   Don't expect we will suddenly have one now.

Maybe not, but they've lost 3 of 4 four times since August:

• 8/19 - 8/24 (Mets, Astros)
• 8/28 - 8/31 (Dodgers, Rockies)
• 9/6 - 9/9 (Rays, Red Sox)
• 9/15 - 9/19 (Tigers, Giants)

So, do I expect them to lose 4 in a row? No. But it's very possible that it goes all the way down to G162. 

[SteveA]

6 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

I think you can count on Det at Bal next Tuesday at this point.  Today was the last chance for the Tigers to lose a game, in all likelihood, and KC will have a tough task trying to sweep a motivated Braves team - and possibly dodging some weather as well.  Hard to imagine a scenario where Det isn't the 5 (or extreme worst case for us, the 4, technically).

The only caveat is if the baseball gods somehow imbue the ChiSox with a little magic of their own to allow them to get to 40 wins and at least tie for the worst record (least wins) in modern history, rather than owning it by themselves (in much the same way they tied, not beat, the 21 game losing streak earlier this year).

White Sox win today will give them 39.  If they could then win 2, they would be 41-121, which would actually be percentage points better than the 62 Mets who were 40-120 with I guess two non-played rainouts or something.

Not that I think they care too much.   They are sweeping the Angels but it is their last home series and I believe the sweep allows them to avoid having the worst home record ever (or modern, or something).   Going on the road to play out the string might not be something they are as enthusiastic about.

[Wavetrapper]

What  is Minn un-magic number What eliminates them 

[Malike]

7 minutes ago, KojiSplit said:

AJ Hinch has stated that as long as KC has a playoff spot locked up Skubal will be saved for WC game 1 regardless of the playoff opponent.

The advantage is he matches up with another Ace and you only see Skubal once, not twice. If we need to get past them at some point, why not now? If they are as terrifying as everyone is making them out to be, they will win the WS, doesn't matter who they play.

[SteveA]

4 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Maybe not, but they've lost 3 of 4 four times since August:

• 8/19 - 8/24 (Mets, Astros)
• 8/28 - 8/31 (Dodgers, Rockies)
• 9/6 - 9/9 (Rays, Red Sox)
• 9/15 - 9/19 (Tigers, Giants)

So, do I expect them to lose 4 in a row? No. But it's very possible that it goes all the way down to G162. 

Twins 12-23 since August 17, also very possible they go in the tank.

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Wavetrapper said:

What  is Minn un-magic number What eliminates them 

2 more wins by both DET and KC.

[SteveA]

2 minutes ago, Wavetrapper said:

What  is Minn un-magic number What eliminates them 

They have the tiebreak with both KC and Detroit, so at this point, with 4 left, the Twins are elminated if:

• They lose 2 games
• They lose 1 game and KC and Det each win at least one more game
• They win out but KC and Det each win at least 2 more games

[Fiver6565]

At this point i hope the Twins just get eliminated, because they will be an absolute layup for Houston in the WC round.  At least w/ KC there would be some hope of Ragans/Lugo pitching well and a few scrappy hits or something.  But the Twins are a hot mess.  Plus, they've had so many bites at the apple in recent years, I have no desire to see them in the playoffs again.

 

Not to mention it means a couple more wins for our Birds!

[LookitsPuck]

5 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Twins 12-23 since August 17, also very possible they go in the tank.

Oh, for sure. 

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

Both of them are important to consider here. They could have a mediocre offense every single game of the season, but if the pitching is elite (and it is!), it'll carry them. 

We have 6 games against the Tigers this year. And yes, most of them were without the cadre of regulars. But here are the offensive numbers against them:

.211/.282/.392 - .674 OPS

They scored 20 runs in 6 games against them. Barely scraping 3 R/G. And a good portion of them coming in *1* game. 

Out of the WC potentials the O's could face, here are their R/G:

• Royals: 29 in 6 games = 4.8 R/G
• Twins: 22 in 3 = 7.3 R/G
• Mariners: 27 in 6 = 4.5 R/G
• Tigers: 20 in 6 = 3.3 R/G

Out of all the playoff teams, the best RA/G are the Mariners (3.75), Guardians (3.85), and Tigers (4.96).

For the playoffs, you want to look at who you're facing on the bump. Which team scares you the most? Because if you can't hit against the team, it doesn't matter what the opposing offense is.  Also you'll want to consider the best fielding teams, too.  

Seems to me you'd want to face the team you matchup best against *and* who has the worst defense and worst pitching, because presumably your 3 starters (Burnes, Eflin, Kremer) should be able to hold teams in check. 

The worst team would be the one with the worst run differential right?

[JR Oriole]

12 minutes ago, SteveA said:

White Sox win today will give them 39.  If they could then win 2, they would be 41-121, which would actually be percentage points better than the 62 Mets who were 40-120 with I guess two non-played rainouts or something.

Not that I think they care too much.   They are sweeping the Angels but it is their last home series and I believe the sweep allows them to avoid having the worst home record ever (or modern, or something).   Going on the road to play out the string might not be something they are as enthusiastic about.

In 2003, the Tigers were 38-118 and then ended the season 5-1.  The White Sox hit 120 losses and suddenly are sweeping the Angels. Stuff like this always makes me wonder why these teams don't just try harder all year, given that they seem to be able to muster enough energy and motivation to win games only when faced with the specter of eternal shame.  That being said, good luck to the Chisox in Detroit.  

[LookitsPuck]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

The worst team would be the one with the worst run differential right?

I generally am not a fan of run differential as it's not a point in time thing. Injuries, deadline additions, callups, yada, yada all factor into how a team looks going into the playoffs as opposed to 10k foot view of what the entire season looked like.

To me, the Tigers are hot, young, playing incredibly well buttoned up baseball and even though they sold at the deadline, they didn't fire sale and the young guys they called up have been pitching, hitting and playing well. And I don't think the Orioles matchup well w/ the Tigers because of the excellent lefty starting pitching + opener strategy coupled with a damn near elite bullpen with a very good defense.

I put together this in another thread on my reasoning why I don't want to face the Tigers:

 

Edited 3 hours ago by LookitsPuck

[maybenxtyr]

31 minutes ago, SteveA said:

You make it sound like a difficult task or something.   We haven't had a 4 game losing streak since before the All Star Break, as badly as we've played.   Don't expect we will suddenly have one now.

Exactly.  This is a whole different team than what it was a week ago.