The State of the Orioles Address

[TommyD4207]

When Davis was signed, he wasn't a premium bat..He had a sub 800 OPS for like 6 years in a row.

The fact that he had a monster year in Minnesota doesn't take away from the FACT that when he was signed, he wasn't a premium bat.

People are talking about AM's inability to sign a premium bat at the time that player was signed...Chili Davis doesn't fit that criteria...The idea that this continues to fly over your head is amazing yet not surprising.

Seasons before he signed with the Twins:

1984: 148 OPS+

1985: 117 OPS+

1986: 124 OPS+

1987: 111 OPS+

1988: 114 OPS+

1989: 120 OPS+

1990: 114 OPS+

Huff 2 seasons before signing with the Orioles:

2005: 108

2006: 107

Huff was trending down rapidly while Chili Davis was peaking. I really don't think you have any idea of how much of a trainwreck your comparison really is.

You are so clearly uninformed about the marketplace in the early 90's that it's almost comical. The highest paid players by year are:

1990: $3M to Rickey Henderson

1991: $4.7M to Jose Canseco

1992: $5.8M to Bobby Bonilla

1993: $5.9M to Ryne Sandberg

Chile Davis made:

1990: $1.3M

1991: $1.7M

1992: $2.8M

1993: $2.9M

While he wasn't the highest paid player in MLB back then, he made a very legitimate salary. He certainly wasn't a middling run-of-the-mill contract at that point. Amazing how you can just assume you're right when you clearly have done no research on the subject.

[Lucky Jim]

Seasons before he signed with the Twins:

1984: 148 OPS+

1985: 117 OPS+

1986: 124 OPS+

1987: 111 OPS+

1988: 114 OPS+

1989: 120 OPS+

1990: 114 OPS+

Huff 2 seasons before signing with the Orioles:

2005: 108

2006: 107

Huff was trending down rapidly while Chili Davis was peaking. I really don't think you have any idea of how much of a trainwreck your comparison really is.

You are so clearly uninformed about the marketplace in the early 90's that it's almost comical. The highest paid players by year are:

1990: $3M to Rickey Henderson

1991: $4.7M to Jose Canseco

1992: $5.8M to Bobby Bonilla

1993: $5.9M to Ryne Sandberg

Chile Davis made:

1990: $1.3M

1991: $1.7M

1992: $2.8M

1993: $2.9M

While he wasn't the highest paid player in MLB back then, he made a very legitimate salary. He certainly wasn't a middling run-of-the-mill contract at that point. Amazing how you can just assume you're right when you clearly have done no research on the subject.

How are you defining peaking?

Davis was a great signing. Not a huge FA splash, but he was in Minnesota. Of course he didn't sign anyone to enormous, market-changing contracts.

[TommyD4207]

How are you defining peaking?

Davis was a great signing. Not a huge FA splash, but he was in Minnesota. Of course he didn't sign anyone to enormous, market-changing contracts.

Well, to be fair, as I showed, nobody was making grotesque amounts of money back then. Chili Davis was making $2.8M while the highest paid player in baseball was making $5.8M.

[JTrea81]

We basically have 2 positions to potentially fill next year out of 9 hitters (including the DH). That is 1B and 3B. In those other 7 positions, not a single one of the players is over the hill or even declining. Heck, a couple of them are blossoming stars that aren't even arb eligible yet. Do you realize how many freaking teams would love to be in that position?

We along with Toronto have the weakest corner IF for 2010 and beyond in the division. Tampa has Longoria and Pena, Boston has Youkilis/Lowell and likely Anderson, and NY has ARod and Tex.

Those two positions are extremely important to fill with premium talent.

[Lucky Jim]

Well, to be fair, as I showed, nobody was making grotesque amounts of money back then. Chili Davis was making $2.8M while the highest paid player in baseball was making $5.8M.

Right. And? That doesn't prove much. Davis was a second-tier FA. No big deal. He was a great signing BECAUSE he contributed greatly to a WS at a low cost. Why would you want to argue that MacPhail broke the bank for Chili Davis - if anything, it would call his judgment into question.

I swear, some of you will stretch any argument just to try and show SG up.

And, again, how are you defining peaking? Chili was pretty clearly not "peaking".

[ChaosLex]

I've learned more about Chili Davis from this thread than I've ever cared to.

[TommyD4207]

Right. And? That doesn't prove much. Davis was a second-tier FA. No big deal. He was a great signing BECAUSE he contributed greatly to a WS at a low cost. Why would you want to argue that MacPhail broke the bank for Chili Davis - if anything, it would call his judgment into question.

I swear, some of you will stretch any argument just to try and show SG up.

And, again, how are you defining peaking? Chili was pretty clearly not "peaking".

OK, so $2.8M was the going rate for 2nd tier while $5M was the absolute highest anyone could get? Interesting.

As for you accusing me of being neurtoic, that's just inane. Obviously, MacPhail, when it came to the market, gave a lot more money to a guy like Chili Davis than what other guys got. That cannot be debated. He was a relatively high paid guy at a time when they weren't giving out extreme contracts. He wasn't getting $25M a year but NOBODY WAS. You're drastically underestimating how far $2.8M went back in 1991.

[JTrea81]

Team, Ranks - record, 1st OPS, 3rd OPS

LAA, 1st, 7th, 30th

Cubs, 2nd, 12th, 3rd

Tampa, 3rd, 10th, 5th

Boston, 4th, 4th, 7th

Philly, 5th, 6th, 27th

Milwaukee, 6th, 5th, 22nd

Mets, 7th, 13th, 2nd

Yankees, 8th, 16th, 4th

White Sox, 9th, 22nd, 14th

St. Louis had the best OPS at 1st and were 6th at 3rd. This was the best composite result of any team in the majors. Yet, they ended up with the 12th best record out of 30 teams.

Atlanta ended up with the best OPS at 3rd and they were above average at 1st at 14th yet their record ended up being just ahead of ours at 25th.

Your assertion that these two positions are any more important than the other 7 positions isn't upheld by any analysis. As a matter of fact, it is wrong based on an actual analysis.

I trust that most of us understand how ridiculously poor your assertion is here and you're not going to listen to anything anyone else says anyway, so I'm not wasting any more of my time on this goofy argument. You're just wrong ........ again.

You just proved my point that Tampa and Boston had top 10 performances at the corners. We've got to get at least that to leapfrog those teams.

The AL East is unlike any other division. It doesn't matter what any other non-AL East team does. We've got to leapfrog Boston, Tampa and NY and NY is going to improve their #'s at 1B now that they have Tex.

I also see that each of those teams (except for the WS) that had the best record had a top 10 performance at one of the corner IF positions.

Now I realize top 10 talent at the corners isn't a lock for contention, but the corner IF positions are the easiest place to find production. And we need more production from our lineup to support our younger pitchers, who despite their talent, will likely go through some growing pains.

[byrdz]

Baseball Prospectus has us scoring the second most runs in baseball, God I hope that's true.

Good to know McPhail respects what BP has to say. I know it may be a given to some but...

[Lucky Jim]

OK, so $2.8M was the going rate for 2nd tier while $5M was the absolute highest anyone could get? Interesting.

As for you accusing me of being neurtoic, that's just inane. Obviously, MacPhail, when it came to the market, gave a lot more money to a guy like Chili Davis than what other guys got. That cannot be debated. He was a relatively high paid guy at a time when they weren't giving out extreme contracts. He wasn't getting $25M a year but NOBODY WAS. You're drastically underestimating how far $2.8M went back in 1991.

I'm really not. And you're just confirming the fact that you're all giddy for arguing with SG.

Look, show me some info that Chili was way-better paid than others and I'll get behind your point.

Otherwise, you're full of it. Which I imagine you realize.

And, before you distort facts further, and you will, he made $1.7m his first year in Minnesota. Not $2.8m.

[Pickles]

I'm really not. And you're just confirming the fact that you're all giddy for arguing with SG.

Look, show me some info that Chili was way-better paid than others and I'll get behind your point.

Otherwise, you're full of it. Which I imagine you realize.

And, before you distort facts further, and you will, he made $1.7m his first year in Minnesota. Not $2.8m.

The average salary in MLB in 1991 was 850,000. Chili Davis was paid twice that. And his salary quickly escalated to the point where the next year he made almost three times the MLB avg. However, this doesn't impress enough the fact that C Davis was well compensated relatively in his time, because there was no where need the variance in salaries for players.

The whole point of this debate is that AM has a track record of signing a FA bat that put his team over the top, so to speak. Chili Davis was that player in Minnesota. We don't know who it will be in Baltimore.

[RShack]

I'm really not. And you're just confirming the fact that you're all giddy for arguing with SG.

Looks to me like you're giddy for arguing about anything, just for the sake of doing it, even if you have to go as far as arguing about Chili Davis.

Chili Davis doesn't have anything to do what came up in AM's State of the Orioles comments. Talking about him is is 100% drek left over from somebody claiming that AM is lying when he says he's gonna buy bats. That's what matters, not Chili Davis.

[Boston Dave]

LOL...There is no way Chili Davis was considered a premium bat when AM signed him.

I bet you won't find one person on this site to agree with you.

Chili Davis was a "name" bat- I remember him, and this signing, well. At the time the financials were different in the game, of course, but you're right: Davis was the kind of guy more teams waste money on then get what they (think) they're paying for. If they had the guts to roll the dice they could often find the same production from a much cheaper player.

[Sports Guy]

Huff didn't avg a 128 ops+ the prior 4 years. It was 118

Yes, you are right...Must have hit the wrong button on a calculator. Still, over that time span, Huff was the better hitter.

And, its obvious to anyone, that the reason you then changed to 5 years is because Huff was trending downward and the farther back you could go the better his #s would look.

Changed it to 5 years? My argument is and was that you can;t say Davis is a premium bat and then say Huff wasn't...I gave a large sample size of 4 and then 5 years to prove that point. I also mentioned age. You are now, after I showed you that Huff was a better hitter for a longer period of time, bringing up the 2 year thing, which I agree with. Huff was trending downward although he was better in 2006 vs 2005(10% or so difference which, according to your next paragraph, seems to be an important number to you), while Davis was worse in 1990 compared to 1989.

It's almost 10% so there is a difference.

108 to 114 is minimal difference...You won't find anyone on here that will disagree with me on that...And, as I said, the difference isn't large enough to say, one is a premium hitter and one is not.

There is also the difference in consistentcy.

Now this I agree with...But its funny how you accuse me of changing the criteria of the conversation yet you are now bringing this up.

Of course in the year before that it was 120 to 98. But don't mention that because it would weaken your argument.

LOL..What a foolish statement. So, my argument is weak because I didn't mention ONE year yet you continue to say that what happened over a 4 or 5 year period doesn't matter?

Davis was better for the 2 years prior to him signing.

Fixed that for you.

If you don't care about FA then why is it so important that AM sign premiums one's?

At some point, we are likely going to have to obtain another Tejada....A top level FA that is "cheap"....There is a lot of reason to wonder if AM will do what it takes to get that player, since he has never done it before.

I have no doubt that he will be able to sign the guys like Huff, Davis, etc....Those mid tier guys...But will he sign the top top guys?

[AgentOrange]

What [free agent] bats have you bought, Andy?

Come on TS, we have a top 5 offense this year and we are still complaining?

What need is there to buy bats? We still are growing the arms.

If we have a top flight pitching staff and the offense looks to be in shambles, then we should worry about it. The O won't be the problem this year, or in years to come. If the pitching comes around, we won't have to worry about it. Too many young studs in place to have an offense that can't compete.