Jump to content

Small sample size this year for Aaron Crow


Recommended Posts

His team's season doesn't start until May. http://www.fwcats.com/ He will have essentially taken a whole year off from baseball, and it will be very hard to judge how he is pitching now.

Disclaimer: I've never wanted the Orioles to pick Crow. His mechanics are not good and his pitch counts were frequently high in college, both of which make his an fairly large injury risk. Plus he and his agent handle the negotiations with the Nats in a manner that does not suggest he is a ''character' guy.

The pitch count issue applies to Gibson too. It seems to be a Missouri thing.

ETA: This could also be seen as a good thing, because his arm will be well rested. But it will take much longer to build up to even 160 innings.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

His team's season doesn't start until May. http://www.fwcats.com/ He will have essentially taken a whole year off from baseball, and it will be very hard to judge how he is pitching now.

Disclaimer: I've never wanted the Orioles to pick Crow. His mechanics are not good and his pitch counts were frequently high in college, both of which make his an fairly large injury risk. Plus he and his agent handle the negotiations with the Nats in a manner that does not suggest he is a ''character' guy.

The pitch count issue applies to Gibson too. It seems to be a Missouri thing.

ETA: This could also be seen as a good thing, because his arm will be well rested. But it will take much longer to build up to even 160 innings.

I don't know for sure, but it seems like it was just as much the Nats fault in this case.

I remember reading the Nats wouldn't go over 3.3 million, even though Crow said he wouldn't accept that amount before he was drafted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know for sure, but it seems like it was just as much the Nats fault in this case.

I remember reading the Nats wouldn't go over 3.3 million, even though Crow said he wouldn't accept that amount before he was drafted.

I don't have a problem with him not signing; I have a problem with the way he acted during and after the process.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't have a problem with him not signing; I have a problem with the way he acted during and after the process.

Fair enough.

I was simply trying to think about how it was for him. Not sure how I would have acted in that situation either. I would have wanted to start my career and would have been pretty upset if the team drafting me wasn't really serious about me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the record I think Crow is probably the BPA for the O's at #5. I would love to see Grant Green there (if he still appears to be a top 10).

I think there should be an emphasis on hitting in this draft, but having Crow along with Arrieta, Matusz and Tillman is just too good to pass on. I think the biggest thing for me, would be the O's seeing if Crow would sign immediately if they O's gave him about what he wanted. A month of Indy league and a month plus in the minors could put him in AA/AAA next year and close to a call up. Pitching is still our greatest weakness and I would like to see a good set of SP capable of 1/2 stuff ready to roll.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Do we have any video on Crow??? Thanks:)

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ProfessionalPitcherAnalyses/AaronCrow.html

Not exactly video, but O'Leary does a good job pointing out the real flaws in Crow's delivery. All video I've seen suggests that he has major timing and hyper abduction problems. He looks like another Mark Prior mechanically.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You must mean he will be an injury risk like Prior was...Because their deliveries look nothing alike......His biggest problem that I remember hearing was he flipped his wrist up when he is about to throw it(I do not know the technical terms) His front side mechanics are nearly flawless though arent they? I am not that worried about him-like I said before, there is no pitcher in this draft that would be around in our slot that has no red flags with their deliveries except for apparently Matzek.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You must mean he will be an injury risk like Prior was...Because their deliveries look nothing alike......His biggest problem that I remember hearing was he flipped his wrist up when he is about to throw it(I do not know the technical terms) His front side mechanics are nearly flawless though arent they? I am not that worried about him-like I said before, there is no pitcher in this draft that would be around in our slot that has no red flags with their deliveries except for apparently Matzek.....

Not sure you're looking at the same Mark Prior that I am. They both break their hands and lift with their elbows, the both are in positions of hyperabduction at key points in their delivery, and they both have timing problems.

The whole hook in the wrist thing is more a control related issue, not an injury red flag. It certainly isn't helping him, but I wouldn't go as far as to say it will be the factor that leads Crow to TJ Surgery. If that happens, it will be more a reflection of his poor timing.

Crow and Prior are both mechanical messes, and they have a lot of the same problems. That is why I consider him another Prior mechanically. They essentially do the same thing in their delivery, besides Crow's wrist hook.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.



  • Posts

    • A good example of this is the Shields trade. That got them Myers and Odorizzi, who gives them 8 WAR, along with Mike Montgomery. Myers doesn't do much for them, but he is flipped for Souza (6+ WAR). Then Souza is flipped for Solak. Solak is traded before getting to the majors, getting them another 2 WAR from Pete Fairbanks. Montgomery gets them an additional 2 WAR in the form of Erasmo Ramirez. Ramirez gets them 1 WAR in a year of Steve Cishek. If you just look at what Myers and Odorizzi did for Tampa the deal looks just okay, but then if you consider what those players were turned into it's a pretty huge win for Tampa. 
    • Correa is just another asset.  If they think they have a better chance signing him than some of the available pitchers on, then they'd be silly to not take the asset available.   That in turn allows them to flip a package for a more impactful pitcher.  I do not think it will happen, but I'd be thrilled.   I think the chances this org signs a high-end position player is a lot better than a high-end pitcher.    
    • https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rucins000dre
    • He allows us to trade a seriously high-end prospect to get a seriously high-end SP.  So with that line of thinking I believe he improves the team dramatically.  
    • It is often suggested that we should follow the "Tampa model" when it comes to trading players before they reach free agency.   But what exactly is the "Tampa model?"   I went back and looked at every trade Tampa made since 2008, the first year they made the playoffs.   They have made a ton of trades over the last 14 years -- way too many to list them all.   But, I tried to gather up the ones that involved them trading away players who had been key contributors for them.   Even that is a long list: 12/10/08 Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce.   Jackson had only two years of service, and was coming off a 2.4 rWAR campaign.   He was traded for Joyce, who had a 1.7 rWAR rookie campaign and was under control for 6 more years.  Jocce was worth 10.3 rWAR for the Rays. 8/29/09 Scott Kazmir for Matt Sweeny, Alex Torres and Sean Rodriguez.  Kazmir was having a poor season (-0.7 rWAR when traded) after several stellar years, and was under control for one more season.   Rodriguez ended up producing 7.9 rWAR for Tampa in the next 5 years. 12/17/10 Jason Bartlett for Cole Figueroa, Brandon Gomes, Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell.   Bartlett had been worth 2.5 rWAR in 2010, and had one year of control remaining.   None of the players coming back had a major impact, and Bartlett had a poor year as well. 1/8/11 Matt Garza, Fernando Perez, and Zac Rosscup for Chris Archer, Robinson Chirinos,  Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer and Hak-Ju Lee.   Garza was a former Super-Two entering his second year of arbitration, under control for three more seasons, coming off a 1.6 rWAR season but a 15-10 record.   Archer produced 13.7 rWAR for Tampa, Fuld 2.3 rWAR, Guyer 4.9.   12/9/12 Wade Davis and James Shields for Mike Montgomery, Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi and Patrick Leonard.  Shields had signed a very team friendly deal with Tampa early in his career that had him under control through 2014 (two more seasons) at below market prices, and was coming off a 5.8 rWAR season.   Davis was under control for four more seasons and was coming off a 1.5 rWAR season in his first year as a reliever.  Myers was BA’s no. 4 prospect at the time of the trade.  He did not produce much for Tampa before being traded two years later, but Odorizzi produced 8.2 rWAR for Tampa. 1/22/14 Alex Torres and Jesse Hahn for Brad Boxberger, Logan Forsythe and Mike Andriese.  Torres had an excellent 2013 campaign in which he posted a 1.71 ERA, good for 1.9 rWAR.   He only had 141 days of service, so was under control for 6 more years.   As it turns out, he only pitched two more years after the trade, worth 0.1 rWAR.  Hahn, who hadn’t pitched in the majors yet, was worth 1.7 rWAR.   Boxberger was worth 2.3 rWAR for Tampa, Forsythe 9.4, Andriese 1.7.  7/31/14 David Price for Wily Adames, Drew Smyly and Nick Franklin.   Price, who had been a Super-2, was 1.3 seasons from free agency when traded, and having a typical Price year (2.7 rWAR at the deadline).   Adames was worth 7.6 rWAR for Tampa before being traded to make way for Wander Franco, Smyly was worth 3.8 rWAR before being traded, and Franklin didn’t really amount to anything for the Rays. 1/10/15 Yunel Escobar and Ben Zobrist for John Jaso, Boog Powell, and Dave Robertson.  Zobrist had one year remaining on a below-market contract, as did Escobar.  Zobrist was coming off a 4.4 rWAR season, while Escobar had a poor season.  This trade did not turn into much, though Robertson was worth 2.3 rWAR for Tampa, and Jaso in his second stint with the team produced 1.0 rWAR.  8/1/16 Matt Moore for Matt Duffy, Lucius Fox and Michael Santos.  Moore had been inked to a deal that extended through 2016 with 3 club options, and was having a so-so season (1.3 rWAR at the deadline) at the time of the trade.   Duffy had one nice season for Tampa, the other two never really did anything. 1/11/17 Drew Smyly for Mallex Smith and Ryan Yarbrough.   Smyly, a former Super 2, had two years of control remaining when traded and as coming off his worst season (0.1 rWAR), though he’d made 30 starts and had been worth 7.6 rWAR in his time with Tampa.  Smith was worth 4.8 rWAR in the next two years for Tampa before being traded away, and Yarbrough has been worth 2.4 rWAR. 1/23/17 Logan Forsythe for Jose De Leon.   Forsythe had a 3.5 rWAR season for Tampa in 2016 and was under contract through 2018 (option year).   De Leon got hurt and did not do much for Tampa. 7/31/17 Tim Beckham for Toby Myers.   Beckham had been an nunderproductive no. 1 overall pick in the draft, while Myers was a low-level minors lotter ticket with upside.   Neither panned out. 2/17/18 Jake Odorizzi for Jermaine Palacios.  Odorizzi had an off year in 2017 but had been worth 8.2 rWAR to the Rays.   He had two years of control left when traded.  Palacios never amounted to anything. 2/20/18 Steven Souza Jr. for Nick Solak, Anthony Banda and Colin Poche.  Souza was just entering his Arb years when traded, and coming off a 3.9 rWAR season.   None of the players received have been big contributors for Tampa. 7/31/18 Chris Archer for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz.   What a steal for Tampa.  Archer was under contract through 2019 with options for 2020-21.   He’d been worth 12.5 rWAR for Tampa but was in the midst of a mediocre season.   He didn’t do much for Pittsuburgh and they ended up declininging his 2021 option year, after he didn’t pitch in 2020.   Meanwhile, Glasnow has been worth 4.7 rWAR for Tampa, Meadows was worth 6.2 before being traded again, and Baz was one of the top-ranked pitching prospects in the game going into 2022, before getting hurt. 12/29/20 Blake Snell for Francisco Mejia, Luis Patino, Blake Hunt and Cole Wilcox.  Snell won the Cy Young award in 2018 and was locked up through 2023 when he was traded.   He’d been worth 1.0 rWAR in the Covid-shortened season before he was traded, and 11.6 rWAR for Tampa overall, the majority coming in his Cy Young campaign.   Patino was a highly regarded prospect at the time, ranked no. 23 by BA.   He hasn’t done much for Tampa, nor have the others. 11/30/21 Joey Wendle for Kameron Misner.   Wendle was coming off an all-star, 3.9 rWAR season, with two years of control remaining.   Misner had played in Hi A/AA the year prior to the trade.  He spent 2022 in AA. 4/5/22 Austin Meadows for Isaac Paredes.  Meadows had a 2.0 rWAR season for Tampa in 2021, and had been worth 6.2 rWAR after being acquired in the Archer deal at the 2018 trade deadline.   Tampa held Paredes in the minors for the first month of the season, and he ended the year with 1.160 years of service, while producing 1.9 rWAR in 111 games this year.  As you can see, Tampa has not hesitated to trade significant players.   Of these, only the David Price deal was a "last minute" deal at the trade deadline on the eve of free agency for the player.   Several of the players (Shields, Zobrist, Moore, Archer and Snell) had signed team-friendly extensions and were traded anyway.  Oftentimes, Tampa acquired players in trades and then traded them away a couple of years later.  Joyce, Kazmir, Bartlett, Garza, Jaso, Mallex Smith, Forsythe, Odorizzi, Souza, Archer, Wendle and Meadows are all examples of this.  (I may not have listed all of the transactions involving these players.)    I should emphasize again that the list above is a subset of the trades.   Probably less than 1/3 of all the trades they made in that time span.   Other trades sometimes invloved prospects for young players, or older veterans for veterans.   I can't imagine that there are many teams who've traded as actively as Tampa has.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...