Donta Williams release and why Elias needs to adjust his draft philosophy

[survivedc]

16 minutes ago, Ripken said:

Generally, I don't care where it comes from either but I certainly care that we have enough of it and the easiest way to get pitching is to draft and develop it.  Even if all 13 pitchers in Baltimore came from somewhere else there is still a huge need to have more arms growing in the minors.  You're just never going to have enough depth if you can't develop at least some of your own pitching and giving away multiple prospects and huge piles of money every year is not sustainable either.

I'm not trying to nitpick here, but I'm not sure that is the easiest way to get pitching, and my guess is that Elias agrees, which is why they haven't focused on drafting pitching. 

[Sports Guy]

Btw, this is also part of the reason wby guys like Mountcastle should be traded. Let someone else pay them and get prospects for them.

[Ripken]

7 minutes ago, survivedc said:

I'm not trying to nitpick here, but I'm not sure that is the easiest way to get pitching, and my guess is that Elias agrees, which is why they haven't focused on drafting pitching. 

What's the easiest way to get it?

[OriolesMagic83]

I would like to see the O's try to draft some future relievers in rounds 6-10.  The O's should be able to draft some high upside college pitchers w/ limited repertoires in this range.  OMG, you want the O's to draft relievers!  Remind me of all the great prospests that Elias has drafted in rounds 6-10.  These are the kinds of pitchers that could move thru the system quickly (at least some) and help the O's bullpen and also be trade bait). 

[survivedc]

20 minutes ago, Ripken said:

What's the easiest way to get it?

Some combination of trading and free agency. Letting players develop and give you more information. Assuming we are talking about MLB caliber arms and not just arms at all. 

[Explosivo]

20 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why don't all the teams just do that if it's so much better?

Are they stupid?

They don’t have a better approach which is why we are in first. Our continual run on rookies of the year will also ensure two first round picks. That’s how you keep the cupboard full, that and trading folks you know you won’t be able to sign. This is playing out perfectly y’all.

[Explosivo]

20 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why don't all the teams just do that if it's so much better?

Are they stupid?

They don’t have a better approach which is why we are in first. Our continual run on rookies of the year will also ensure two first round picks. That’s how you keep the cupboard full, that and trading folks you know you won’t be able to sign. This is playing out perfectly y’all.

[Moose Milligan]

16 hours ago, survivedc said:

Some combination of trading and free agency. Letting players develop and give you more information. Assuming we are talking about MLB caliber arms and not just arms at all. 

This is what I’ve said. Let other teams draft and make the mistakes on pitching. 

[Three Run Homer]

16 hours ago, Ripken said:

What's the easiest way to get it?

Japan.  

[ChosenOne21]

Thought I'd investigate the idea that Elias is bad at drafting college position players after the first round. He kind of is, but basically no one is better at it based on what I looked at.

Rounds 2-10 of the 2021 MLB Draft:

Round 2: Connor Norby, 0.0 WAR

Diamondbacks (2 picks), Braves, A's, and Padres drafted a college position player with better career WAR than Norby (to date).

 

Round 3: John Rhodes (N/A)

No college position players in this round have made the majors yet.

 

Round 4: Donta' Williams (N/A)

No college position players in this round have a positive WAR. Hunter Goodman and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have negative WAR.

 

Round 5: Carlos Tavera (N/A)

O's took a pitcher. No college position players have reached the majors.

 

Round 6: Collin Burnes (N/A)

No college position players in this round have positive WAR. Only one to make the majors is Justyn Henry-Malloy (-0.1 WAR)

 

Round 7: Connor Pavolony (N/A)

Nationals, Astros, and Braves each took a college position player with positive MLB WAR.

 

Round 8: Creed Willems (N/A)

O's took a high schooler position player. No position players from this round have made the majors. 

 

Round 9: Ryan Higgins (N/A)

No players taken in this round have made the majors.

 

Round 10: Billy Cook (N/A)

No players taken in this round have made the majors. For all his warts, wouldn't shock me if Cook is one of the better prospects taken in this round, but I haven't confirmed that.

 

 

Overall, I don't buy that Elias is uniquely bad at drafting college position players after the first round. That said, especially toward the end of the top ten rounds, pitchers have almost always done better than hitters. He could still stand to draft more pitchers, especially from round five on.

[Ripken]

2 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Overall, I don't buy that Elias is uniquely bad at drafting college position players after the first round. That said, especially toward the end of the top ten rounds, pitchers have almost always done better than hitters. He could still stand to draft more pitchers, especially from round five on.

Nice post.  I certainly agree with the above.  The pitching depth in the upper minors is not good and he's not going to make enough trades to change that.

[Ohfan67]

17 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

You need to go back and reread my posts instead of shaking your Elias pom poms. 

you are such a hurry to defend Elias that you are literally missing my entire points.

Not everyone who disagrees with your take on Elias' drafts are "shaking Elias pom poms".  It would be like calling you an Elias hater because you question his draft strategy. 

 

I believe that Elias and company are using analytics to try to draft and develop WAR and not particular positions. Some positional talent may be more likely to generate WAR (e.g., very athletic shortstops, maybe college outfielders) when they are drafted, even if they switch positions later. Other positional talent may be less likely to develop into productive players (WAR generators). Pitchers may be in that category. What you are not doing in your analysis is comparing the O's draft to other teams both recent and historical. You are picking particular players that the O's did not draft to use in some specific comparisons, but those comparisons could be used to critique every draft strategy.  I think the O's are taking into consideration what the WAR potential of a player is, but also the probability that the draftee will reach his WAR potential.  In this approach, it may be more profitable in the long run to draft say college outfield hitters because they are more likely to generate significant WAR than say pitchers due to pitcher volatility/injuries etc. A better pathway to getting WAR from young pitchers may be to draft hitters who have a higher probability of succeeding and then trading them for pitchers who have moved far enough down the development curve that their probability of producing WAR is much higher than a newly drafted pitcher. 

I think the Elias approach definitely produces some oddities and it makes me nervous at times and there will definitely be a number of draftees who bust, but I think there's a good chance that the O's strategy produces the highest likelihood of drafting WAR (either directly as players that the O's draft, develop, and deploy or indirectly as the O's draft and then trade prospects). Time will tell, but so far so good. 

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

  and there will definitely be a number of draftees who bust,  

This is a nit to pick...I don't really consider anyone who's drafted after the 2nd or 3rd round (yes, even an overslot guy in round 5 or 6) a bust.  The chances of any of these guys making a major league appearance is slim to none.  I wouldn't call Donta Williams a bust, I wouldn't call anyone in that round a bust if they fail to make it to the majors or are never listed as a "prospect."

 

[wildcard]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s very difficult to sustain.  We aren’t in “sell veterans” mode like the Bundy, Manny, Mancini and Lopez trades that brought a lot of our younger pitchers.   And the “buy” trades often cost 2-3 good prospects to buy a pitcher who will be a free agent in 1-3 years.  So I do think the Orioles are going to need to start drafting some pitchers.  That doesn’t necessarily mean that he wasn’t smart to go hitter-heavy for the last several years, but I don’t think you can do it forever.   

Under the right circumstances I think Elias will still trade veterans for pitching prospects.  The O's have Mountcastle, O'Hearn and Mayo.  That is one too many at 1B/DH.  Mayo does not seem likely to replace All-Star Westburg at 3B so he will have to move to 1B/DH.

This crowding at 1B/DH is a good place for Elias to trade for a starter or starting prospect.

People that talk about Mayo moving to the outfield come up against Kjerstad vs Mayo.  And Mayo has never played the outfield to my knowledge.  Neither of these guys should be everyday players at LF or CF because of their lack of range.

[Ohfan67]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

This is a nit to pick...I don't really consider anyone who's drafted after the 2nd or 3rd round (yes, even an overslot guy in round 5 or 6) a bust.  The chances of any of these guys making a major league appearance is slim to none.  I wouldn't call Donta Williams a bust, I wouldn't call anyone in that round a bust if they fail to make it to the majors or are never listed as a "prospect."

 

I meant by "bust" a player that does not directly or indirectly generate WAR. I'm not saying it was a bad pick at all. But if you have a probabilistic-based drafting strategy, then you will have runs of draft picks that don't generate WAR just by random chance (they get hurt or whatever). You have to be able to deal with the emotions/stress of those "bad runs" to ultimately get the highest WAR yield from your strategy. Hope that makes sense.