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A few things


bigbird

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Well, to think Guthrie will average 1.5 walks per 9 IP, when he has NEVER done that in his career is a joke.

So, he won't have that command. That should be obvious.

Does anything suggest that Burres will have good command? His only good command year was his 23-year-old year in A ball.

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So Leo couldn't help Guthrie improve his command. On one hand, you always say "Let's see what Leo can do with this guy", and then on the other hand, you say "See this guy is what he is because he's always been this way". It's nice to have it both ways. You're a lucky guy.

He can help him...But for you to think he can shave 2.5-3BB per 9 IP off of his career totals is just wrong. I think Guthrie can average 3-3.5 walks per 9 IP...In the minors, his MLE would have been 4 BBs per 9IP...So, that is an improvement.

And, on top of that, Guthrie and Mazzone have both said they didn't need change any mechanics. Not like hw was wild in the past due to poor mechanics.

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BTW, Burres is younger and has had better MiL success and did it in much better hitters leagues.

Burres:

Minor League Totals - 7 Season(s)	43	27	4.11	175	87	1	1		3	616.0	592	310	281	59	245	555	42	 	8.65	0.86	3.58	8.11	1.36

Guthrie:

Minor League Totals - 4 Season(s)	40	36	4.40	101	97	7	2		0	568.2	597	319	278	52	201	389	22	 	9.46	0.82	3.18	6.16	1.40

That doesn't look like a lot more success. We need to take into account a number of factors. Burres is younger, which is a serious advantage, and shouldn't be discounted. But his success can at A-Ball, mostly, at an advanced age. Guthrie, who got a late start, never pitched below AA - and his numbers are skewed by his disastrous years in 2003-2005. At his best, Guthrie has been better. At his worst, he's been much worse.

He's a tough read. Because of this averaging these numbers out might be a bad approach.

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Does anything suggest that Burres will have good command? His only good command year was his 23-year-old year in A ball.

Well, what indicated Guthrie would have good command coming into this year?

Career MiL BB/9IP:

Burres: 3.58

Guthrie: 3.18

Not a huge difference...About 10 walks over the course of 200 IP.

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Well, what indicated Guthrie would have good command coming into this year?

Career MiL BB/9IP:

Burres: 3.58

Guthrie: 3.18

Not a huge difference...About 10 walks over the course of 200 IP.

Nothing. Which makes the entire conversation hypothetical and pretty much a null set. We should acknowledge, though, that Burres's best control numbers came as a reliever. Guthrie's worst numbers came as a reliever. But...

WITHOUT great command, Guthrie's stuff makes him more valuable than Burres, I think.

WITHOUT great command, one's a #5 starter and one is a swingman.

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Nothing. Which makes the entire conversation hypothetical and pretty much a null set. We should acknowledge, though, that Burres's best control numbers came as a reliever. Guthrie's worst numbers came as a reliever. But...

WITHOUT great command, Guthrie's stuff makes him more valuable than Burres, I think.

WITHOUT great command, one's a #5 starter and one is a swingman.

I disagree...Without great command, both are relievers IMO.

I agree Guthrie would be a better reliever and more valuable in that role. Have always felt Guthrie could be a solid ML reliever.

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I disagree...Without great command, both are relievers IMO.

I agree Guthrie would be a better reliever and more valuable in that role. Have always felt Guthrie could be a solid ML reliever.

Really, Guthrie needs GREAT command to be a #5 starter? I'm not sure why. I think GOOD command with his stuff would make him a viable end-of-the-rotation guy.

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Really, Guthrie needs GREAT command to be a #5 starter? I'm not sure why. I think GOOD command with his stuff would make him a viable end-of-the-rotation guy.

Yea, bad choice of words on my part...I think he needs to average 3.5 bb's per 9 innings or better and at that point, he may be able to be a 5th or better. Probably needs to be closer to the 3-3.25 range to be better than a #5 though.

But he also needs to couple that with a K rate over 6 and better HR rate....It looks like he can sustain the K rate...I think the others are up in the air.

Of course, in the AL, a pitcher with a 5 ERA is a borderline 4/5 starter...So i guess he could do that but that is certainly something i would want to replace as well.

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The difference between Guthrie's command and Burres' command is that Guthrie actually showed very good BB/9 numbers in AA as a 24/25 year old - 2.61 BB/9.

Whereas Burres' had a 3.99 BB/9 rate in the Eastern League as a 24 year old.

The gap closed in comparing the AAA numbers, but Guthrie was still quite a bit better.

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Yea, bad choice of words on my part...I think he needs to average 3.5 bb's per 9 innings or better and at that point, he may be able to be a 5th or better. Probably needs to be closer to the 3-3.25 range to be better than a #5 though.

But he also needs to couple that with a K rate over 6 and better HR rate....It looks like he can sustain the K rate...I think the others are up in the air.

Of course, in the AL, a pitcher with a 5 ERA is a borderline 4/5 starter...So i guess he could do that but that is certainly something i would want to replace as well.

We're in agreement on this. Glad to clear that up. Now the rest of the OH can resume their lives. ;)

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The difference between Guthrie's command and Burres' command is that Guthrie actually showed very good BB/9 numbers in AA as a 24/25 year old - 2.61 BB/9.

Whereas Burres' had a 3.99 BB/9 rate in the Eastern League as a 24 year old.

The gap closed in comparing the AAA numbers, but Guthrie was still quite a bit better.

Yea...But neither was that good and nothing to be excited about.

Guthrie is better right now.

If they both had the same walk rate, i am not so sure Guthrie ends up with better numbers though.

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