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8/16: I'm Back In The Saddle Again

cboemmeljr

By cboemmeljr
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  • Posts

    • LookitsPuck
      Will the Orioles get home field advantage during the Wild Card?

      By LookitsPuck · Posted

      Wait, are you saying that it's the combined H2H? I guess that does make sense. So, in that circumstance, in a 3 way tie...the Tigers get the #4 seed, the O's #5, and Royals #6?
    • LGOrioles
      The Achilles heel for this team is the bullpen

      By LGOrioles · Posted

      Bubic is really good. Zerpa has a pretty bad K-BB rate on the season though and gives up hard contact, so it looks like that may just be a good stretch for him. His xERA is 4.49 on the season. Lynch is solid but he’s a low K, low BB lefty. Definitely not bad, but he’s going to give up contact.  
    • Tony-OH
      Is there a 5th O's #1 Prospect?

      By Tony-OH · Posted

      Yeah, I was tracking #1 overall at some point, not next year. Unless Basallo still has rookie eligibility, I don't see anyone having a chance after next season.
    • LGOrioles
      The Achilles heel for this team is the bullpen

      By LGOrioles · Posted

      Cano has been great since June 1st even if the last week has been rough. 11.27 K/9, 3.41 ERA, 2.56 FIP, 2.64 xFIP, 2.73 SIERA. Perez’s ERA is worse than last year but his K-BB rate, FIP, and xERA are all better than last year, while his xFIP is slightly worse. I don’t feel notably different about those two this year than heading into the playoffs last year. If anything, having Cano as a 7th/8th inning option instead of the closer like last year is probably better.  The pen isn’t great but I don’t think it’s that bad. Cano, Perez, Soto, Dominguez, Coulombe, Webb, and Akin have combined for a 3.37 ERA and 9.81 K/9 this year with the O’s. They’re missing a go to back end guy (which is evident when pitching to guys like Judge and Soto) but they have a number of solid options that can strike guys out. Guys like Kimbrel, Irvin, Baker, Smith, Tate, Ramirez, and Heasley really hurt the overall bullpen ERA and they won’t be pitching in the playoffs. I’m definitely taking them over KC’s pen and I’m not sure it’s that much worse than any other AL playoff team’s besides Cleveland. 
    • SteveA
      Will the Orioles get home field advantage during the Wild Card?

      By SteveA · Posted

      Your conclusions are 100% correct, but it has nothing to do with division records in that 3 way tie It is head to head results among the tied teams: 1) Det 10-9 (4-2 vs Balt, 6-7 vs KC) 2) Balt 3-3 (4-2 vs KC, 2-4 vs Det) 3) KC 9-10 (2-4 vs Balt, 7-6 vs Det)
    • glenn__davis
      Is there a 5th O's #1 Prospect?

      By glenn__davis · Posted

      I assumed the OP meant next year.  I don't think there's anyone on the international side who has a chance at this point to blow up that quickly.  I agree that if we're looking beyond just next year then yes, that's more likely.
    • SteveA
      Will the Orioles get home field advantage during the Wild Card?

      By SteveA · Posted

      You are wrong. If Detroit wins out and the Orioles are swept (and KC doesn't sweep), we fall to the #2 wild card due to our tiebreak loss to Detroit head to head.  Detroit is the #1 wild card in that case.  We are the #2 wild card.   If KC wins 1 or 2, they are the #3 wild card, otherwise Minnesota is the #3 wild card. If Detroit wins out AND KC wins out and we are swept, it is a 3 way tie for the 3 wild card spots.   Based on head to head among tied teams, we are 3-3 (4-2 vs KC, 2-4 vs Det), KC is 9-10 (2-4 vs us, 7-6 vs Det), and Det is 10-9 (4-2 vs us, 6-7 vs KC).   So Det is the #1, we are the #2, and KC is the #3. So to be the #1 wild card and get home field Tuesday, we need either one win or one Detroit loss.   KC's results are irrelevant to whether we get the #1 spot or not, although they could jump us and Detroit by winning out if we lose out and Det wins out.

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