If John Angelos is still owner, 2023 was probably the high water mark of this team

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

It still might be.

As far as regular season goes it’s hard to win more than 101. 

[Moose Milligan]

32 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

There isn't much to suggest that Elias wants to spend a lot of money unnecessarily as he cut his teeth under private equity/consultants which are all about efficiency and saving cash. He's a Luhnow acolyte after all.

That said, the Astros weren't exactly gun shy with their contracts. Brian McCann got 5 years, Gurriel 5 years, Reddick 4 years, Gregerson 3 years, Sipp 3 years, Altuve 4 years + 2. All of those came while Elias was still assistant GM (at the tail end of his tenure). That was based on the Astros 2017 Opening Day roster.

These guys do have their own strategies and viewpoints, but both Elias and Sig worked together under Luhnow, so there's probably a lot of learned/adopted strategy from that time (with their own sprinkled in). I think Elias operated under some tight restrictions of Angelos, especially in this most recent offseason when Angelos didn't want to commit to longer contracts to have as little on the books for new ownership as possible.

I just think that anyone who feels that the Orioles are about to make it rain in free agency are setting themselves up for disappointment.  I think we're going to spend some, but I also don't believe we're going to be making WOW deals with WOW free agents.  

[LookitsPuck]

19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I just think that anyone who feels that the Orioles are about to make it rain in free agency are setting themselves up for disappointment.  I think we're going to spend some, but I also don't believe we're going to be making WOW deals with WOW free agents.  

Oh, I agree 100%.

Right now their payroll is at $108m (up from $71m). I think the ceiling is $200m, but there's no way he's going to unload like woah on FAs. He has some expensive guys coming off the books (Kimbrel, Burnes), but so many young guys are going to get bumps via arbitration, they need to set aside money for *some* extensions, and they desperately need 2 starters and some bullpen arms. I severely doubt they'd double payroll in one year. I could see them add $40-$50m in the offseason, though. 

[spiritof66]

John Who?    (I am working on turning my short-term memory deficiency into a selective-memory asset.)

[Orioles West]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

So why would he be the tightwad because it's not his money after all?  Cause he thinks he can do more efficiently (cheaper) than other teams.  And until July of this year, he's been right.

So like I said, we'll see if he was the tightwad here this offseason...and I think there's a good chance that he is.  I mean, how else do you get a job with John Angelos?  It certainly wasn't by explaining to him about all the money he plans to spend in free agency.

I think there may be something to this.

I like Mike. 

I think Elias is a pretty sharp dude who prefers to lean into his specific analytics and system and wanted the challenge of a small to mid market team tackling the big budget AL East titans.

Something about his approach definitely got him the gig with JA and so far, he seems to prefer it.

He may not want the big money, he may want a out perform the original Billy Beane Moneyball model — in the classic, I can do MORE with LESS.

David Rubenstein has said he will defer to his GM.

So, we’re about to find out what Elias really wants to do, and how much money he wants or doesn’t want moving forward.

[Orioles0615]

 

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

That's a myopic view of looking at it.

This isn't a company that just got a bunch of VC money.  My hunch (based on nothing but feelings, no evidence) is that Elias himself likes wearing pants with deep pockets but has short arms.  I think he's a bit petrified of giving out big deals to players in case they don't work out.  I don't think he ever wants to be in a position where he doesn't have payroll flexibility...only to not use that flexibility.  Like a guy who has a Ferrari in his garage but only takes it out twice a year when the weather is optimal.  Too afraid to drive it cause something might happen to it.

So why would he be the tightwad because it's not his money after all?  Cause he thinks he can do more efficiently (cheaper) than other teams.  And until July of this year, he's been right.

So like I said, we'll see if he was the tightwad here this offseason...and I think there's a good chance that he is.  I mean, how else do you get a job with John Angelos?  It certainly wasn't by explaining to him about all the money he plans to spend in free agency.

I think he will be too. I still maintain he is a great scout but only an ok GM

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

 

I think he will be too. I still maintain he is a great scout but only an ok GM

If this team were on pace to win 100 games again this year and a few games up on the Yankees, would your opinion change?

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, waroriole said:

As far as regular season goes it’s hard to win more than 101. 

Look at the Blue Jays, they thought they had a real nice window and where are they now?

[Aristotelian]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

That's a myopic view of looking at it.

This isn't a company that just got a bunch of VC money.  My hunch (based on nothing but feelings, no evidence) is that Elias himself likes wearing pants with deep pockets but has short arms.  I think he's a bit petrified of giving out big deals to players in case they don't work out.  I don't think he ever wants to be in a position where he doesn't have payroll flexibility...only to not use that flexibility.  Like a guy who has a Ferrari in his garage but only takes it out twice a year when the weather is optimal.  Too afraid to drive it cause something might happen to it.

I agree with this except I also think Elias genuinely believes that long term contracts are detrimental in the long term and/or too high risk for non-major market teams, and that since FA spending is not Baltimore's comparative advantage we need the foundation to be a pipeline of talent coming in from the draft (his specialty). It's not just that he is risk averse but that he genuinely thinks long term contracts are bad strategy. 

I think he is mostly right. The question is what happens when the team has major talent gaps like pitching. Will Elias be so dogmatic that Kimbrel/Gibson types will be the outer limit of what he is willing to do in FA? Or will we consider multiyear deals for a players who fit a need? 

[Too Tall]

We went from 2022 - Surprise! to 2023 - Wow (till the playoffs) - to 2024 Medic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! but JA ain't here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  So the OP is like saying, "If wishes were horses, beggars would ride."

Now, 2025 will be telling.

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

There isn't much to suggest that Elias wants to spend a lot of money unnecessarily as he cut his teeth under private equity/consultants which are all about efficiency and saving cash. He's a Luhnow acolyte after all.

That said, the Astros weren't exactly gun shy with their contracts. Brian McCann got 5 years, Gurriel 5 years, Reddick 4 years, Gregerson 3 years, Sipp 3 years, Altuve 4 years + 2. All of those came while Elias was still assistant GM (at the tail end of his tenure). That was based on the Astros 2017 Opening Day roster.

These guys do have their own strategies and viewpoints, but both Elias and Sig worked together under Luhnow, so there's probably a lot of learned/adopted strategy from that time (with their own sprinkled in). I think Elias operated under some tight restrictions of Angelos, especially in this most recent offseason when Angelos didn't want to commit to longer contracts to have as little on the books for new ownership as possible.

Once Astros rebuild was done and the Astros were a playoff team, they had no problem spending up to the luxury tax line if needed.  They just don't sign free agents beyond the years they're likely to be productive and don't give out long term contracts to pitchers.

[SemperFi]

37 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree with this except I also think Elias genuinely believes that long term contracts are detrimental in the long term and/or too high risk for non-major market teams, and that since FA spending is not Baltimore's comparative advantage we need the foundation to be a pipeline of talent coming in from the draft (his specialty). It's not just that he is risk averse but that he genuinely thinks long term contracts are bad strategy. 

I think he is mostly right. The question is what happens when the team has major talent gaps like pitching. Will Elias be so dogmatic that Kimbrel/Gibson types will be the outer limit of what he is willing to do in FA? Or will we consider multiyear deals for a players who fit a need? 

The litmus test for Elias will be this off-season and it will be on the bullpen.  The Orioles have exactly $1m committed towards next year's pen and we saw what a cheap one year deal gets you (Kimbrell).  

You are simply not going to get good arms with a one year contract.  Elias is quoted that the wall was built to specifically attract free agent pitchers......we'll see.  I already know the excuses we will hear if he fails-I've heard the same drivel since Thryft.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, SemperFi said:

The litmus test for Elias will be this off-season and it will be on the bullpen.  The Orioles have exactly $1m committed towards next year's pen and we saw what a cheap one year deal gets you (Kimbrell).  

You are simply not going to get good arms with a one year contract.  Elias is quoted that the wall was built to specifically attract free agent pitchers......we'll see.  I already know the excuses we will hear if he fails-I've heard the same drivel since Thryft.

You can do it.

Teams do it every year.

I'm guessing if we check every FA RP signing this last offseason at least one is way over-performing.

But you can't bet on being that team that gets the 2025 golden ticket.

 

[LookitsPuck]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree with this except I also think Elias genuinely believes that long term contracts are detrimental in the long term and/or too high risk for non-major market teams, and that since FA spending is not Baltimore's comparative advantage we need the foundation to be a pipeline of talent coming in from the draft (his specialty). It's not just that he is risk averse but that he genuinely thinks long term contracts are bad strategy. 

I think he is mostly right. The question is what happens when the team has major talent gaps like pitching. Will Elias be so dogmatic that Kimbrel/Gibson types will be the outer limit of what he is willing to do in FA? Or will we consider multiyear deals for a players who fit a need? 

Long term contracts are very rarely a good idea. That said, there's a monstrous chasm between the 1 year deals that Elias has been doling out and irresponsibly long contracts a la Stanton. There's a lot of value in these 3-5 year deals available. I'd like to see him take those chances. The O's are going to need it next year.

[Aristotelian]

41 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

The litmus test for Elias will be this off-season and it will be on the bullpen.  The Orioles have exactly $1m committed towards next year's pen and we saw what a cheap one year deal gets you (Kimbrell).  

You are simply not going to get good arms with a one year contract.  Elias is quoted that the wall was built to specifically attract free agent pitchers......we'll see.  I already know the excuses we will hear if he fails-I've heard the same drivel since Thryft.

Kimbrel wasn't cheap and guys like Stephenson support Elias's mentality. I have a feeling you are going to end up disappointed.