Can Cowser still win Rookie of The Year over Gil/Wells ?

[capyy]

7 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

bWAR favours Gil (3.5) to Cowser (2.9)

fWAR favours Cowser (4.1) to Gil (2.6)

Betting markets still favour Gil -185. But I wonder if those change soon.

fWAR is considered to be much more "accurate", right? 

 

Gil negative WAR outing today and cowser added probably .3WAR in the past week

[Baseball fandom]

11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Taking my Orioles bias out of the loop, it should be Gil and it shouldn't be close. 

Cowser had a nice season, and he's ending it off good, but Gil has 15 wins, a +126 ERA, and has been worth 3.5 rWAR to Cowser's 2.9 rWAR. Plus he's struck out a sexy 166 in 146 innings going into tonight. 

 

Yep totally agree. To me he would win it on his own merit but also playing in the NY market will surely be an added bonus to help. 

[Aglets]

As long as Cowser finishes top 2 in the voting we get the extra pick right?

[NedFromYork]

I think extra international slot money.

[LookitsPuck]

31 minutes ago, capyy said:

fWAR is considered to be much more "accurate", right? 

 

Gil negative WAR outing today and cowser added probably .3WAR in the past week

Some interesting things of note from https://www.samford.edu/sports-analytics/fans/2023/Sabermetrics-101-Understanding-the-Calculation-of-WAR. I pulled out the relevant areas:

• Fangraphs allocates 570 WAR for position players and 430 WAR for pitchers, while Baseball-Reference allocates 590 WAR for position players and 410 WAR for pitchers
• The major difference between fWAR and bWAR comes from the measurement of fielding runs, which is the defensive output a player provides. Fangraphs uses a statistic called Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), while Baseball-Reference uses a statistics called Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). The differences in these stats can lead to drastically different calculations in WAR for some position players.
• UZR takes into account 3 years of players’ data as well as MLB data to determine these percentages, whereas DRS uses essentially 1 year of data. Therefore, some rookies will have drastically different UZR and DRS stats.
• As opposed to positional players, Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference take drastically different steps in calculating the WAR of pitchers. It does not follow the formula for position players but does try to calculate the “wins” that a pitcher gives to their team. Instead, they use a “base” statistic to help calculate WAR. Fangraphs uses FIP, or fielding independent pitching, as its base for calculating pitchers' WAR, whereas Baseball-Reference focuses on Runs Allowed per 9 innings (RA9) for its base

I think the main takeaway for Gil, bWAR likes him more than FanGraphs probably because FG aims to take the defensive element out of the calculation by centering on FIP. And if we look at FIP, his is close to 4. But Baseball Reference is using RA9 which does have a defensive element inherently calculated.

As for Cowser, I reckon FG likes him more than BBRef particularly on the defensive metric side of things. Maybe BBRef is harsher on the DRS side than FG is on the UZR side.

To me, I like FG for pitchers far more than BBRef. For position players, I’d give the nod to FG but mainly because I think DRS can have some wide swings where UZR has a tendency to be more centered.

[capyy]

10 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Some interesting things of note from https://www.samford.edu/sports-analytics/fans/2023/Sabermetrics-101-Understanding-the-Calculation-of-WAR. I pulled out the relevant areas:

• Fangraphs allocates 570 WAR for position players and 430 WAR for pitchers, while Baseball-Reference allocates 590 WAR for position players and 410 WAR for pitchers
• The major difference between fWAR and bWAR comes from the measurement of fielding runs, which is the defensive output a player provides. Fangraphs uses a statistic called Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), while Baseball-Reference uses a statistics called Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). The differences in these stats can lead to drastically different calculations in WAR for some position players.
• UZR takes into account 3 years of players’ data as well as MLB data to determine these percentages, whereas DRS uses essentially 1 year of data. Therefore, some rookies will have drastically different UZR and DRS stats.
• As opposed to positional players, Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference take drastically different steps in calculating the WAR of pitchers. It does not follow the formula for position players but does try to calculate the “wins” that a pitcher gives to their team. Instead, they use a “base” statistic to help calculate WAR. Fangraphs uses FIP, or fielding independent pitching, as its base for calculating pitchers' WAR, whereas Baseball-Reference focuses on Runs Allowed per 9 innings (RA9) for its base

I think the main takeaway for Gil, bWAR likes him more than FanGraphs probably because FG aims to take the defensive element out of the calculation by centering on FIP. And if we look at FIP, his is close to 4

. But Baseball Reference is using RA9 which does have a defensive element inherently calculated.

As for Cowser, I reckon FG likes him more than BBRef particularly on the defensive metric side of things. Maybe BBRef is harsher on the DRS side than FG is on the UZR side.

To me, I like FG for pitchers far more than BBRef. For position players, I’d give the nod to FG but mainly because I think DRS can have some wide swings where UZR has a tendency to be more centered.

great explanation, thank you.

 

I may be a little bias but all I'm hearing is fWAR is far better

 

baseball references negative defensive WAR value for cowser also just doesn't pass the eye test. he's a plus value defender.  

[jem709]

Well Gil had a stinker of a game.

 

[gamiliel]

7 hours ago, Aglets said:

As long as Cowser finishes top 2 in the voting we get the extra pick right?

Yes

[Can_of_corn]

45 minutes ago, gamiliel said:

Yes

Quote

In short, an MLB club can earn a Draft pick after the first round if a PPI-eligible player accrues one year of service as a rookie and then factors into a major award. That means he either has to win his league’s Rookie of the Year award or place in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting prior to qualifying for arbitration.

https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-performance-incentive-ppi-eligible-players

[cnmilton]

If Cowser does not receive the Rookie of the year, the Orioles will not pick up any draft pick if he finishes 2nd or 3rd. The owners and players did not institute an international draft, which is where the international draft picks would have come into play for 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the Rookie of the Year.

[Babkins]

8 hours ago, Aglets said:

As long as Cowser finishes top 2 in the voting we get the extra pick right?

This misconception is insidious. There is no pick except for the team with the Rookie of the Year. We did not get a pick when Adley finished second to Julio Rodriguez. Adley did, however, earn a full year of service time for finishing second.

[foxfield]

...So we get a pick either way.  Awesome.

 

 

 

 

NO WE DON"T

[cnmilton]

Adley was not on the Orioles opening day roster that year, so the Orioles would not have gained a pick even if Adley would have been voted Rookie of the Year. I don't believe that the Yankees will receive a pick for Rookie of the Year for Gil this year as Gil was not a top 100 prospect.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, capyy said:

great explanation, thank you.

 

I may be a little bias but all I'm hearing is fWAR is far better

 

baseball references negative defensive WAR value for cowser also just doesn't pass the eye test. he's a plus value defender.  

As explained in a prior post, dWAR has a component that weights the difficulty of the position.  They see left field as a low defensive value position.  It’s not a reflection of Cowser’s defensive, which the measure as positive.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

Some interesting things of note from https://www.samford.edu/sports-analytics/fans/2023/Sabermetrics-101-Understanding-the-Calculation-of-WAR. I pulled out the relevant areas:

• Fangraphs allocates 570 WAR for position players and 430 WAR for pitchers, while Baseball-Reference allocates 590 WAR for position players and 410 WAR for pitchers
• The major difference between fWAR and bWAR comes from the measurement of fielding runs, which is the defensive output a player provides. Fangraphs uses a statistic called Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), while Baseball-Reference uses a statistics called Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). The differences in these stats can lead to drastically different calculations in WAR for some position players.
• UZR takes into account 3 years of players’ data as well as MLB data to determine these percentages, whereas DRS uses essentially 1 year of data. Therefore, some rookies will have drastically different UZR and DRS stats.
• As opposed to positional players, Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference take drastically different steps in calculating the WAR of pitchers. It does not follow the formula for position players but does try to calculate the “wins” that a pitcher gives to their team. Instead, they use a “base” statistic to help calculate WAR. Fangraphs uses FIP, or fielding independent pitching, as its base for calculating pitchers' WAR, whereas Baseball-Reference focuses on Runs Allowed per 9 innings (RA9) for its base

I think the main takeaway for Gil, bWAR likes him more than FanGraphs probably because FG aims to take the defensive element out of the calculation by centering on FIP. And if we look at FIP, his is close to 4. But Baseball Reference is using RA9 which does have a defensive element inherently calculated.

As for Cowser, I reckon FG likes him more than BBRef particularly on the defensive metric side of things. Maybe BBRef is harsher on the DRS side than FG is on the UZR side.

To me, I like FG for pitchers far more than BBRef. For position players, I’d give the nod to FG but mainly because I think DRS can have some wide swings where UZR has a tendency to be more centered.

A couple of things: 

1.  fWAR no longer uses UZR.   They switched to OAA and other Statcast measures this year.   

2.  I’m not a fan of using FIP to evaluate pitchers’ performance.  I wouldn’t call it Fielding Independent Pitching, I’d call it Context ignorant pitching.  Pitcher A allows a double and a run scoring single and then has two clean innings.  Pitcher B allows a two out double one inning and a two out single the next inning and nobody scores.   FIP treats Pitcher A and Pitcher B the same.   I don’t buy it.  Minimizing damage is an important part of pitching, and if you are measuring value, as opposed to trying to predict what a pitcher might go in the future, treating those pitchers the same is plain wrong.