Can Cowser still win Rookie of The Year over Gil/Wells ?

[capyy]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

As explained in a prior post, dWAR has a component that weights the difficulty of the position.  They see left field as a low defensive value position.  It’s not a reflection of Cowser’s defensive, which the measure as positive.

more evidence that fWAR is the better metric, right? cowser isn't below replacement level defensively - so that # should be positive, right?

[jem709]

If I am reading correct (and I may not  be) Gil is eligible for ROY but not the PPI pick as he was not on 2 of three top 100 list.  Can someone tell me if that is correct please. it would be nice to get another pick.

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, capyy said:

more evidence that fWAR is the better metric, right? cowser isn't below replacement level defensively - so that # should be positive, right?

I think you are misconstruing this.  Both rWAR and fWAR assign a negative value to LF.   There is no such thing as “below replacement level defensively.”   That term only applies to overall WAR, not any individual component.   Both rWAR and fWAR recognize Cowser as an above average LF, though fWAR rates him more highly.  

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, jem709 said:

If I am reading correct (and I may not  be) Gil is eligible for ROY but not the PPI pick as he was not on 2 of three top 100 list.  Can someone tell me if that is correct please. it would be nice to get another pick.

Now that’s interesting, I’d forgotten about the top 100 list aspect.  I think you are right that the Yankees won’t get a pick if Gil wins RoY.  Good!   But the O’s still wouldn’t get a pick unless Cowser wins RoY, i.e., the no. 2 guy doesn’t bring a pick if the no. 1 guy is ineligible.   

[LGOrioles]

Gil is at 2.2 fWAR in 151 IP. Cowser is at 4.1 fWAR in 557 PA’s. 

Gil ranks 46th in fWAR out of 68 pitchers with more than 150 IP. His FIP is 44th and xFIP is 59th. He also faded hard down the stretch, with a 4.20 ERA, 5.21 FIP, and 4.90 xFIP after the ASB.

Cowser ranks 26th in fWAR out of 100 batters with more than 550 PA’s. It should be Cowser.
 

 

[Roll Tide]

We will have to wait and see

[jdwilde1]

1 hour ago, capyy said:

more evidence that fWAR is the better metric, right? cowser isn't below replacement level defensively - so that # should be positive, right?

For the actual breakdown of the components that make up a position player’s rWAR, see Player Value—Batting in a player’s Baseball Reference profile.  There is also a comprehensive explanation of the rWAR formula, see WAR Explained (v2.2).

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cowseco01.shtml

 

 

[Warehouse]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5790069/2024/09/25/mlb-awards-2024-keith-law-picks/?source=user_shared_article

Keith Law says it’s clearly Cowser (he has Gil runner up and Langford third), though in a backhanded sort of way.

“Two things can be true at the same time: Colton Cowser has been the best rookie in the American League this year, and Colton Cowser is a flawed player who can’t play every day on a playoff team. By any measure, Cowser is leading AL rookies in WAR, and it’s not that close. “

[O's84]

After Gil's last start bWAR now favors Cowser as well, 3.2 to 3.1.

[Ohfan67]

22 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5790069/2024/09/25/mlb-awards-2024-keith-law-picks/?source=user_shared_articleColton Cowser is a flawed player who can’t play every day on a playoff team. 

And yet he does play everyday for a playoff team. And obviously multiple inferior players play every day for playoff teams. I hate lines like that. 

[Frobby]

23 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I do think his defense has been very good in LF and is probably closer to the 11 OAA vs the -0.3 dWAR. 

Please don’t compare OAA and dWAR.  OAA and dWAR are not comparable stats.  First of all, OAA is measured in outs, while dWAR is measured in wins.   That’s a very different scale.   Second, OAA is not adjusting for difficulty of position, while dWAR contains a significant adjustment for position.   Third, OAA measures range but doesn’t measure the throwing aspect of being an outfielder.  

If you want to compare apples to apples (and I assume you do), Statcast has a statistic called Fielding Runs Value that converts OAA plus the throwing aspect into runs.   Cowser has a +10 FRV, which as the names implies, is measured in runs.  FRV feeds directly into the fWAR calculation, along with a factor that adjusts for difficulty of position, which for Cowser is measured at -4.1 runs.   Meanwhile, rWAR uses Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), which is directly comparable to FRV.  Cowser has a +3 DRS, not as good as his +10 FRV.   Those are the comparable stats, and the 7 run difference converts to about 0.7 WAR. That’s the main difference between Cowser’s 4.1 fWAR and 3.2 rWAR.

I see that after Gil’s poor performance yesterday, Cowser now leads him in both rWAR (3.2 to 3.1) and fWAR (4.1 to 2.2).   So, I like Cowser’s chances.  
 

 

[e16bball]

23 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

And yet he does play everyday for a playoff team. And obviously multiple inferior players play every day for playoff teams. I hate lines like that. 

He’s salty because he was notably low on Cowser throughout the minors, and yet Cowser came up and posted a 4 fWAR season as a rookie. He’s clinging to the critiques he always had — some of which still have merit (he whiffs too much) and some of which are whiny loser stuff (“he can’t hit lefties at all,” despite an 89 wRC+ against them). 

Keith hates being wrong so much that even when he is wrong, he has to take great pains to remind you that, if you really think about it, he actually was right.

[Warehouse]

35 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

And yet he does play everyday for a playoff team. And obviously multiple inferior players play every day for playoff teams. I hate lines like that. 

Yes - there are 55 left-handed hitters with at least 100 PAs vs LHP this year, basically your everyday left-handed hitters. Cowser ranks 38th in wOBA and 33rd in xwOBA with a number of playoff starters ranking below him.

Now Cowser has had more trouble with lefties the past couple months, but it feels like cherry-picking to start slicing up his season.

[Warehouse]

2 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Yes - there are 55 left-handed hitters with at least 100 PAs vs LHP this year, basically your everyday left-handed hitters. Cowser ranks 38th in wOBA and 33rd in xwOBA with a number of playoff starters ranking below him.

Now Cowser has had more trouble with lefties the past couple months, but it feels like cherry-picking to start slicing up his season.

To expand on that last point, Cowser ranks 51 out of 51 in xwOBA vs LHP since Aug 1 among left-handed hitters with at least 40 PA vs LHP in that window.  However, it doesn’t feel fair to disregard the first four months.

[Just Regular]

11 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

To expand on that last point, Cowser ranks 51 out of 51 in xwOBA vs LHP since Aug 1 among left-handed hitters with at least 40 PA vs LHP in that window.  However, it doesn’t feel fair to disregard the first four months.

Really zooming the microscope in on one game with Tarik Skubal, would you consider batting Austin Slater 3rd or 4th to basically pinch hit in the 1st inning, and then replace him in LF with Cowser in the top of the 2nd inning.

A tactic that might look good to the SIGBOT but could freak out actual ballplayers.