Can Cowser still win Rookie of The Year over Gil/Wells ?

[LookitsPuck]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

A couple of things: 

1.  fWAR no longer uses UZR.   They switched to OAA and other Statcast measures this year.   

2.  I’m not a fan of using FIP to evaluate pitchers’ performance.  I wouldn’t call it Fielding Independent Pitching, I’d call it Context ignorant pitching.  Pitcher A allows a double and a run scoring single and then has two clean innings.  Pitcher B allows a two out double one inning and a two out single the next inning and nobody scores.   FIP treats Pitcher A and Pitcher B the same.   I don’t buy it.  Minimizing damage is an important part of pitching, and if you are measuring value, as opposed to trying to predict what a pitcher might go in the future, treating those pitchers the same is plain wrong.  
 

Even more of a reason to like FG over BBref,  tbh. Thanks, didn’t realize they switched this year.

My point re: FIP is that I rather prefer it over RA/9, not to say it’s perfect. RA/9 treats all runs allowed by a pitcher the same regardless of them being earned or unearned. So, a pitcher on a team with a terrible defense is going to be judged much more harshly than somebody that pitches on a top tier defense. Not to mention the bullpen taking over mid inning dilemma. The funny thing is in your example re: FIP, RA/9 would have the first pitcher but love the second. Either way, these stats, like nearly all single solitary stats, aren’t best taken alone. 

For your example, let’s say Pitcher A allowed weak contact and the defenders just had poor range, poor arms, whatever, but in the second example the defenders had great range and great arms making amazing plays to prevent any damage…then what? 

Anyways, give me FIP over RA/9 was my point. But if you want to truly assess a pitcher, you’re going to need a few complimentary stats to go along with it.

 

Edited 2 hours ago by LookitsPuck

[LookitsPuck]

1 hour ago, Warehouse said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5790069/2024/09/25/mlb-awards-2024-keith-law-picks/?source=user_shared_article

Keith Law says it’s clearly Cowser (he has Gil runner up and Langford third), though in a backhanded sort of way.

“Two things can be true at the same time: Colton Cowser has been the best rookie in the American League this year, and Colton Cowser is a flawed player who can’t play every day on a playoff team. By any measure, Cowser is leading AL rookies in WAR, and it’s not that close. “

I like Law a lot, but that is a beyond asinine comment about not playing every day on a playoff team. You know how many playoff teams would slot him in the lineup immediately every game? Answer: the large majority.

The Yankees would take Cowser over Verdugo

The Tigers might not put him in over Greene/Meadows/Carpenter, but they’d DH him over their options.

Cowser would start over every outfielder for the Royals, IMHO.

He’d start over Meyers and Dubon for the Astros.

The Guardians would probably start him over anybody not named Kwan in the OF, tbh. 

I can keep going.

Edited 2 hours ago by LookitsPuck

[Warehouse]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

A couple of things: 

1.  fWAR no longer uses UZR.   They switched to OAA and other Statcast measures this year.   

2.  I’m not a fan of using FIP to evaluate pitchers’ performance.  I wouldn’t call it Fielding Independent Pitching, I’d call it Context ignorant pitching.  Pitcher A allows a double and a run scoring single and then has two clean innings.  Pitcher B allows a two out double one inning and a two out single the next inning and nobody scores.   FIP treats Pitcher A and Pitcher B the same.   I don’t buy it.  Minimizing damage is an important part of pitching, and if you are measuring value, as opposed to trying to predict what a pitcher might go in the future, treating those pitchers the same is plain wrong.  
 

Are you OK with context independent batting inputs that are used in WAR?  It feels like pitching and hitting should be symmetrical in terms of how they factor in sequencing.  

FRV is definitely better than DRS for outfielders, as @tangotiger convincingly argues here.  For infielders, it’s more debatable, especially 1B where only DRS accounts for picks.

By the way, Fangraphs WAR leaderboard allows you to toggle between FIP, RA9, and a 50/50 mix.  Cowser beats Gil regardless of the approach.

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Are you OK with context independent batting inputs that are used in WAR?  It feels like pitching and hitting should be symmetrical in terms of how they factor in sequencing.  

Problem is, the batter isn’t in control of what the hitters in front of him do.   The pitcher creates much of his own context.  

That said, the lack of context in position player WAR is a good reason not to use WAR as the sole basis to decide things like MVP.
 

[Tony-OH]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Please don’t compare OAA and dWAR.  OAA and dWAR are not comparable stats.  First of all, OAA is measured in outs, while dWAR is measured in wins.   That’s a very different scale.   Second, OAA is not adjusting for difficulty of position, while dWAR contains a significant adjustment for position.   Third, OAA measures range but doesn’t measure the throwing aspect of being an outfielder.  

If you want to compare apples to apples (and I assume you do), Statcast has a statistic called Fielding Runs Value that converts OAA plus the throwing aspect into runs.   Cowser has a +10 FRV, which as the names implies, is measured in runs.  FRV feeds directly into the fWAR calculation, along with a factor that adjusts for difficulty of position, which for Cowser is measured at -4.1 runs.   Meanwhile, rWAR uses Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), which is directly comparable to FRV.  Cowser has a +3 DRS, not as good as his +10 FRV.   Those are the comparable stats, and the 7 run difference converts to about 0.7 WAR. That’s the main difference between Cowser’s 4.1 fWAR and 3.2 rWAR.

I see that after Gil’s poor performance yesterday, Cowser now leads him in both rWAR (3.2 to 3.1) and fWAR (4.1 to 2.2).   So, I like Cowser’s chances.  
 

 

I assume you just used my post and were not trying to "teach" me the differences between all of those stats. I'm sure you know I know all of this, right?

OAA and dWAR are two "stats" that are designed to give the defensive value of a player. What I said was that I tend to believe the OAA assessment of Cowser's worth more than the dWAR.