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Is there a 5th O's #1 Prospect?

bluedog

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bluedog Veteran All-Star

bluedog

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Assuming Basallo ends up being the O's 4th #1 prospect in a row (at least in some publications), I thought it would be fun to hear people's ideas for who could conceivably become the O's 5th straight #1 prospect.

To be clear, I don't think there is anyone left in the O's minors after Mayo and Basallo graduate who is even remotely likely to rise to #1 -- but if someone DID shock the world with a meteoric rise -- who would it be and why?

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glenn__davis Hangout Grand Counsel

glenn__davis

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The easy answer is no, there will not be another one.  I would be my life savings on that.

If I had to pick someone, it would probably be Honeycutt.  By most accounts he has just about every tool except for that pesky hit tool.  Let's say the Baltimore hitting factory helps him fix his swing and he dominates A and AA while playing exceptional defense.

That still wouldn't be enough to get him to #1, but he would be my best bet out of anyone currently in the system.

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Fiver6565 Veteran All-Star

Fiver6565

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If it was anyone it would probably be an international guy who breaks out (not familiar enough to take a real stab at a name).  But they would have to REALLY break out. I think there’s a decent chance someone of that ilk breaks the top 100 (maybe Morfe? Estrada?) but not that far into it. 

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btdart20 Hangout Veteran Council

btdart20

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EBJ posts a 1.500 OPS with impeccable underlying stats that doesn't hint of regression?  DeLeon tossing a few no-no's, sub-1.50 ERA, and a 10+ K/BB ratio and makes it to AAA and does the same in his first 5 starts?  Vance Honeycutt posting a 30/50 with a sub-20% K%?

Even if those guys post MiLB best stats, I doubt they'll overcome list makers residual question marks closing this season.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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Best chance within the system for me? Stiven Martinez, but there's a long way to go to have that conversation. Honeycutt, even if he hits his ceiling wouldn't end up the #1 prospect because of his age and lack of pedigree. 

It will be hard for drafted players to become the #1 overall unless Elias goes back to drafting high ceiling high school hitters and pay them overslot like they did with Gunnar and Mayo. 

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OriolesUpAndDowns Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

OriolesUpAndDowns

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On 9/26/2024 at 4:08 AM, Tony-OH said:

Best chance within the system for me? Stiven Martinez, but there's a long way to go to have that conversation. Honeycutt, even if he hits his ceiling wouldn't end up the #1 prospect because of his age and lack of pedigree. 

It will be hard for drafted players to become the #1 overall unless Elias goes back to drafting high ceiling high school hitters and pay them overslot like they did with Gunnar and Mayo. 

Good point on the age.  I think it would have to be someone like Nate George from this year's draft just blowing up next year. The story would be how everyone missed on him because he played in a cold weather state.  

 

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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What if they manage Bradfield's timeline so that he is still on the prospect lists going into 2026? He could get Gunnar's September AB's in '25 and conceivably go into '26 is the #1 prospect. Would a 10/80 pace in AAA put him ahead of where Dylan Crews is now? 

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glenn__davis Hangout Grand Counsel

glenn__davis

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On 9/25/2024 at 3:18 PM, Sports Guy said:

Yea I think the only possibility is some international guy blowing up the next 2 years.

 

On 9/25/2024 at 4:08 PM, Tony-OH said:

Best chance within the system for me? Stiven Martinez, but there's a long way to go to have that conversation. Honeycutt, even if he hits his ceiling wouldn't end up the #1 prospect because of his age and lack of pedigree. 

It will be hard for drafted players to become the #1 overall unless Elias goes back to drafting high ceiling high school hitters and pay them overslot like they did with Gunnar and Mayo. 

I assumed the OP meant next year.  I don't think there's anyone on the international side who has a chance at this point to blow up that quickly.  I agree that if we're looking beyond just next year then yes, that's more likely.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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6 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

 

I assumed the OP meant next year.  I don't think there's anyone on the international side who has a chance at this point to blow up that quickly.  I agree that if we're looking beyond just next year then yes, that's more likely.

Yeah, I was tracking #1 overall at some point, not next year. Unless Basallo still has rookie eligibility, I don't see anyone having a chance after next season.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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34 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Yeah, I was tracking #1 overall at some point, not next year. Unless Basallo still has rookie eligibility, I don't see anyone having a chance after next season.

But the OP is about the 5th guy…so Basallo (#1 in FG) is already counted.

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