The Achilles heel for this team is the bullpen

[ExileAngelos]

5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s the 7th inning with Burnes or Eflin on the bump. A tough lefty is coming up. Who you bringing in?  Perez or Coloumbe?  

It is October.  You let them finish the game.  Their arms can always be re-attached after it falls off from throwing 110 pitches.

[Wavetrapper]

5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s the 7th inning with Burnes or Eflin on the bump. A tough lefty is coming up. Who you bringing in?  Perez or Coloumbe?  

Unless the starter has been struggling at that point in the game, I’m avoiding our bullpen at all costs.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You seem to pine for guys in AAA and then (with one notable exception) judge them very harshly if they don’t perform well instantly in the majors.  This is not the time to start experimenting with Young, and that’s no reflection on him at all IMO.

I wonder who that one is?

Agreed with Young. The Orioles have no idea whether he can warm up quickly or work with short rest, so making Young a reliever at this stage of the season is a risky proposition. Not to mention he's already thrown 27 more innings than the year before, so for a guy a season away from TJ surgery, they may think it's prudent to shut him down at this stage. 

I think there's a better case to be made for McDermott to be tried out if they demote Baker.

[LookitsPuck]

The Orioles have a single regular reliever with an ERA under 3, and that's Coulombe and he's only been back less than a week. Last year they had 4: Bautista, Cano, and Coulombe.

Name	2023 ERA	2024 ERA	DIFF
Yennier Cano	2.11	3.2	1.09
Cionel Perez	3.54	4.61	1.07
Danny Coulombe	2.81	2.2	-0.61
Jacob Webb	3.27	3.15	-0.12
Bryan Baker	3.6	5.01	1.41

Those are some pretty big dropoffs for Cano, Perez. And while Baker isn't a regular, he's certainly been abysmal aside from like a 3-4 week stretch.

But it's not just a regression for Cano and Perez, but we also need to look at the guys masquerading/masqueraded as a closer this year in Kimbrel and Seranthony. Kimbrel had a 5.33 ERA, Seranthony with a 3.43. Between the 2 of them, that's nearly 3x worse performance than Bautista.

Bowman has been serviceable, but imploded recently. Soto has been awesome for a spell, but he's had periods where things looked really off.

The bullpen is absolutely the Achilles heel of this club. Their collective ERA is 4.26 this season. The Royals had the worst in the AL bullpens up until the O's imploded yet again last night. The Royals bullpen ERA is 4.21, btw.

It is a major concern going into the playoffs. 

[Three Run Homer]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s the 7th inning with Burnes or Eflin on the bump. A tough lefty is coming up. Who you bringing in?  Perez or Coloumbe?  

If there are two outs and a lefty coming up, I'm going with Povich. 

[Just Regular]

I'm not sure season ERA captures day to day reliever quality great as Hyde looks for 3-4 guys he can trust.

Last 30 Days K-BB tiers as RP for Orioles, Royals and Tigers.

30+: Royals Zerpa, Bubic, Lynch

25-30: Orioles Akin, G. Soto; Royals Erceg

20-25: Orioles Cano; Royals S. Cruz; Tigers Maeda, Foley, Hanifee, Vest, Holton

15-20: Orioles Seranthony, Royals Long, Tigers Hurter

<15: Orioles B. Smith, Kimbrel, Bowman, Cionel; Royals Schreiber, Hernandez, Stratton; Tigers Madden, Guenther, Brieske

Hyde testing Akin in high leverage at Yankee Stadium was notable.    Coulombe is missing from this filter but in his case I think Hyde trusts the 2-year body of work.

Home field could come in extra handy with all the Orioles hottest relievers left handed.    I didn't realize until the exercise the Royals may have three standouts to go with Erceg.

 

[Moshagge3]

3 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

If there are two outs and a lefty coming up, I'm going with Povich. 

I'd be really nervous about that. Not every starting pitcher is cut out to just come into those situations cold and be effective, especially ones with 4 BB/IP.

[Just Regular]

Hyde was specific in his postgame interview he thinks Cano's confidence is down.

With Akin's top form, I think Seranthony, Coulombe, Soto and Akin might be his A team.

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

If there are two outs and a lefty coming up, I'm going with Povich. 

Povich is not guaranteed to beat out Baker and Bowman for the last spot. Even so, Hyde is definitely not using him in high leverage ahead of Akin, Soto, Perez, or Coulombe. 

[LGOrioles]

19 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

The Orioles have a single regular reliever with an ERA under 3, and that's Coulombe and he's only been back less than a week. Last year they had 4: Bautista, Cano, and Coulombe.

Name	2023 ERA	2024 ERA	DIFF
Yennier Cano	2.11	3.2	1.09
Cionel Perez	3.54	4.61	1.07
Danny Coulombe	2.81	2.2	-0.61
Jacob Webb	3.27	3.15	-0.12
Bryan Baker	3.6	5.01	1.41

Those are some pretty big dropoffs for Cano, Perez. And while Baker isn't a regular, he's certainly been abysmal aside from like a 3-4 week stretch.

But it's not just a regression for Cano and Perez, but we also need to look at the guys masquerading/masqueraded as a closer this year in Kimbrel and Seranthony. Kimbrel had a 5.33 ERA, Seranthony with a 3.43. Between the 2 of them, that's nearly 3x worse performance than Bautista.

Bowman has been serviceable, but imploded recently. Soto has been awesome for a spell, but he's had periods where things looked really off.

The bullpen is absolutely the Achilles heel of this club. Their collective ERA is 4.26 this season. The Royals had the worst in the AL bullpens up until the O's imploded yet again last night. The Royals bullpen ERA is 4.21, btw.

It is a major concern going into the playoffs. 

Cano has been great since June 1st even if the last week has been rough. 11.27 K/9, 3.41 ERA, 2.56 FIP, 2.64 xFIP, 2.73 SIERA. Perez’s ERA is worse than last year but his K-BB rate, FIP, and xERA are all better than last year, while his xFIP is slightly worse. I don’t feel notably different about those two this year than heading into the playoffs last year. If anything, having Cano as a 7th/8th inning option instead of the closer like last year is probably better. 

The pen isn’t great but I don’t think it’s that bad. Cano, Perez, Soto, Dominguez, Coulombe, Webb, and Akin have combined for a 3.37 ERA and 9.81 K/9 this year with the O’s. They’re missing a go to back end guy (which is evident when pitching to guys like Judge and Soto) but they have a number of solid options that can strike guys out. Guys like Kimbrel, Irvin, Baker, Smith, Tate, Ramirez, and Heasley really hurt the overall bullpen ERA and they won’t be pitching in the playoffs. I’m definitely taking them over KC’s pen and I’m not sure it’s that much worse than any other AL playoff team’s besides Cleveland. 

[LGOrioles]

28 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I'm not sure season ERA captures day to day reliever quality great as Hyde looks for 3-4 guys he can trust.

Last 30 Days K-BB tiers as RP for Orioles, Royals and Tigers.

30+: Royals Zerpa, Bubic, Lynch

25-30: Orioles Akin, G. Soto; Royals Erceg

20-25: Orioles Cano; Royals S. Cruz; Tigers Maeda, Foley, Hanifee, Vest, Holton

15-20: Orioles Seranthony, Royals Long, Tigers Hurter

<15: Orioles B. Smith, Kimbrel, Bowman, Cionel; Royals Schreiber, Hernandez, Stratton; Tigers Madden, Guenther, Brieske

Hyde testing Akin in high leverage at Yankee Stadium was notable.    Coulombe is missing from this filter but in his case I think Hyde trusts the 2-year body of work.

Home field could come in extra handy with all the Orioles hottest relievers left handed.    I didn't realize until the exercise the Royals may have three standouts to go with Erceg.

 

Bubic is really good. Zerpa has a pretty bad K-BB rate on the season though and gives up hard contact, so it looks like that may just be a good stretch for him. His xERA is 4.49 on the season. Lynch is solid but he’s a low K, low BB lefty. Definitely not bad, but he’s going to give up contact.  

[LookitsPuck]

8 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Cano has been great since June 1st even if the last week has been rough. 11.27 K/9, 3.41 ERA, 2.56 FIP, 2.64 xFIP, 2.73 SIERA. Perez’s ERA is worse than last year but his K-BB rate, FIP, and xERA are all better than last year, while his xFIP is slightly worse. I don’t feel notably different about those two this year than heading into the playoffs last year. If anything, having Cano as a 7th/8th inning option instead of the closer like last year is probably better. 

The pen isn’t great but I don’t think it’s that bad. Cano, Perez, Soto, Dominguez, Coulombe, Webb, and Akin have combined for a 3.37 ERA and 9.81 K/9 this year with the O’s. They’re missing a go to back end guy (which is evident when pitching to guys like Judge and Soto) but they have a number of solid options that can strike guys out. Guys like Kimbrel, Irvin, Baker, Smith, Tate, Ramirez, and Heasley really hurt the overall bullpen ERA and they won’t be pitching in the playoffs. I’m definitely taking them over KC’s pen and I’m not sure it’s that much worse than any other AL playoff team’s besides Cleveland. 

I wouldn't categorize the pen as bad, but I would categorize them as the worst of the AL playoff bullpens.

The Royals are better than their aggregate looks. They transitioned a few guys from starting to relieving, one of them being Bubic who has been amazing. 2.76 ERA, 1.97 FIP, 11.7 SO/9, 1.5 BB/9. Those are lights out numbers. The only 2 O's that come close are Coulombe and Akin, and Akin is abysmal in high leverage situations whereas Bubic is lights out.

There are other notables for them: Erceg (2.88 ERA, 1.17 FIP, 11.2 SO/9, 1.1 BB/9), of course. But also Schreiber, Zerpa, Hernandez, and Lynch are all above average arms. 

You look around the AL playoff picture, and the O's just don't have any elite 1-2 punches. They have an elite 1 punch in Coulombe. They have a bunch of above average arms, but none (aside from Coulombe) that you can really trust. 

[Uli2001]

14 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Achilles heel for this team is the offense. It’s hard to cry about the pen when we scored 1 run.  I guess we were gonna win 1-0 or get to extra innings and win 2-1 in the 19th inning.

Just gotta be a realist some time.  We have a 90% homegrown lineup, and it’s been struggling since June.  So… blame the non homegrown talent. Aka the bullpen.

 

These kinds of 1-0 and 2-1 games tend to happen in the postseason, though. Do you have any confidence that this Oriole team can win such games?

[LGOrioles]

4 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I wouldn't categorize the pen as bad, but I would categorize them as the worst of the AL playoff bullpens.

The Royals are better than their aggregate looks. They transitioned a few guys from starting to relieving, one of them being Bubic who has been amazing. 2.76 ERA, 1.97 FIP, 11.7 SO/9, 1.5 BB/9. Those are lights out numbers. The only 2 O's that come close are Coulombe and Akin, and Akin is abysmal in high leverage situations whereas Bubic is lights out.

There are other notables for them: Erceg (2.88 ERA, 1.17 FIP, 11.2 SO/9, 1.1 BB/9), of course. But also Schreiber, Zerpa, Hernandez, and Lynch are all above average arms. 

You look around the AL playoff picture, and the O's just don't have any elite 1-2 punches. They have an elite 1 punch in Coulombe. They have a bunch of above average arms, but none (aside from Coulombe) that you can really trust. 

Schreiber has a 3.78 ERA, Zerpa is at 3.91, and Hernandez is 3.76. Webb, Akin, Cano, Coulombe, and Dominguez (with the O’s) are all better than that.

I don’t think any team besides CLE has an elite 1-2 punch. Houston does in name value, but all 3 of Hader, Pressly, and Abreu have taken a step back this year. Coulombe when healthy is better than any NYY reliever and while Holmes and Weaver are good, they probably aren’t elite. 

[LookitsPuck]

6 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Schreiber has a 3.78 ERA, Zerpa is at 3.91, and Hernandez is 3.76. Webb, Akin, Cano, Coulombe, and Dominguez (with the O’s) are all better than that.

I don’t think any team besides CLE has an elite 1-2 punch. Houston does in name value, but all 3 of Hader, Pressly, and Abreu have taken a step back this year. Coulombe when healthy is better than any NYY reliever and while Holmes and Weaver are good, they probably aren’t elite. 

Houston has a collective bullpen of more than a half a run better and a better SO/9.

And while Hader, Pressly, Abreu have taken a step back this year, they are still a better trio than Couloumbe+ (insert other names here). 

The Yankees have a solid trio of Kahnle, Weaver, and Holmes. And a myriad of other solid arms. 

I think my point is who are you pairing Coulombe with late/close and feeling good about on this O's club?