Shutting Guthrie Down

[diego]

What are everyone's thoughts on shutting Jeremy Guthrie down for the year? His rough numbers of innings pitched the last few years:

2003 - 158

2004 - 160

2005 - 142

2006 - 142

2007 - 134

Keep in mind, these aren't exact calculations - I sort of rounded them off - and they include minors and majors innings. Although he hasn't thrown as many innings this year, they have certainly been much more stressful, as he's never seriously gotten a chance in the majors.

Obviously, he seems to be running a little low on fuel recently, although, in fairness, his August starts have been against Boston, Seattle and now, New York, and his July starts overall were decent. Certainly can't hate on him for getting hit up by those teams. I think the key factor is his velocity, which (correct me if I'm wrong) has been down a little bit recently. I haven't seen the 98 on the gun that we were seeing earlier in the year. This would certainly be a sign that he's tiring. Anyone have any more specific numbers on that?

At any rate, in the interest of preserving his arm for years when we're (hopefully) in contention, I think it would be in our best interest to shut him down, or perhaps skip a start here and there, during September. I'd have to think that a guy as smart as Guts would be able to have his own input in this decision, and accept it if we did decide to shut him down. It would certainly be a shame to not have him in our rotation for the last month, but I'd rather see him throwing 98 again come next April.

Thoughts?

[Sports Guy]

Loewen through about 40 more innings last year than Guthrie and he ended the season in a decent fashion.

Now, some of those innings were in the less stressful environment of the minor leagues.

The Orioles have a rule that they don't want their guys going more than 50 innings from the previous season.

If he is fatigued already, i don't think it is a good sign.

[Frobby]

I wouldn't be averse to having Guthrie skip a start, if he has one more bad outing. Let's not forget, that was a red-hot offense he faced tonight. Since the all star break, the Yankees as a team are hitting .329/.396/.557, with 236 runs in 31 games. They had scored 102 runs in their last 8 home games before tonight. That's just sick!

[Sports Guy]

I wouldn't be averse to having Guthrie skip a start, if he has one more bad outing. Let's not forget, that was a red-hot offense he faced tonight. Since the all star break, the Yankees as a team are hitting .329/.396/.557, with 236 runs in 31 games. They had scored 102 runs in their last 8 home games before tonight. That's just sick!

Well as i showed in my Guthrie season split thread, this problem started back in July.

[RShack]

I think he needs to skip a start, maybe two. That's all. He seems tired. So give him a rest, and then see.

[Chollie Eckman]

He wasn't wild, but he needs to skip a start and eat his Wheaties.

[TonySoprano]

Well as i showed in my Guthrie season split thread, this problem started back in July.

Responding in that topic I said, "in four starts from July 17th - August 7, he pitched to an ERA of only 2.59. Two of those starts were against the Red Sox and Yankees." If you're seeing a trend, how do you explain this in the middle of it?

[lovetoaster]

I think he needs to skip a start, maybe two. That's all. He seems tired. So give him a rest, and then see.

I was thinking the same thing after he came out tonight. I would at least sit him for his next turn.

[Orsulak4Prez]

Skipping a start I could see, but are you suggesting they send him down to Norfolk? The only way I would do that is if he started to get ridiculous. I disagree with shutting him down for the year. Whatever it is, I think he can work it out in the Majors.

[Dr. FLK]

Responding in that topic I said, "in four starts from July 17th - August 7, he pitched to an ERA of only 2.59. Two of those starts were against the Red Sox and Yankees." If you're seeing a trend, how do you explain this in the middle of it?

And, over the entire month, he was 3-2, 3.93ERA, 1.28 WHIP. His numbers were definitely worse than in May and June, but they were still quite good. So far, it looks like he might have been pitching over his head in May and June, and he might be wearing out in August. But, from looking over the splits, I wouldn't conclude that he started tiring in July. He really only had 1 bad start that month, and he went 6+ IP in all of the rest with QS in 4 of his 6 appearances.

[Sports Guy]

And, over the entire month, he was 3-2, 3.93ERA, 1.28 WHIP. His numbers were definitely worse than in May and June, but they were still quite good. So far, it looks like he might have been pitching over his head in May and June, and he might be wearing out in August. But, from looking over the splits, I wouldn't conclude that he started tiring in July. He really only had 1 bad start that month, and he went 6+ IP in all of the rest with QS in 4 of his 6 appearances.

Yes, i am not saying he had a bad month in July...However, it was worse than he had pitched all year...He gave up 3 or more runs in 3 starts...He had only done that once all year.

His ERA was over 2 runs higher in JUly than it had been in any month.

So, again, it was the start of him tapering off in a big way but still a solid month because of how he ended it, especially the Oakland start.

[Dr. FLK]

Yes, i am not saying he had a bad month in July...However, it was worse than he had pitched all year...He gave up 3 or more runs in 3 starts...He had only done that once all year.

His ERA was over 2 runs higher in JUly than it had been in any month.

So, again, it was the start of him tapering off in a big way but still a solid month because of how he ended it, especially the Oakland start.

I think I'm with you right up until the tapering off. I'm with you that he was pitching over his head early in the season. And, I definitely see July was worse than the previous months. But, I think July was who he really is. He still looked pretty good against some very good opponents. I don't see it as a start for him tapering off. IMO, he was fine in July, and he's tiring in August. Only time will tell which opinion is right, and we'll have to wait and see how he does next season.

[Ruzious]

Obviously, he seems to be running a little low on fuel recently, although, in fairness, his August starts have been against Boston, Seattle and now, New York

I think that's the key. He benefited from a relatively easy schedule - until his last few starts. And he did poorly... in his last few starts. It was somewhat predictable.

[TGO]

Guthrie's velocity didn't seem down last night. I recall specifically that he reached back and threw one at 98, and I saw quite a few fastballs in the 94-96 range. He also threw strikes pretty consistently.

The biggest problem I saw was that he is hanging his curveball a lot. That pitch just has no bite for him right now. Is that from fatigue? I don't know.

[StateFarmFSR]

I would say the curve not breaking is a result of arm fatigue. The curve takes much more arm action to generate the appropriate spin necessary to get it to break correctly. When the arm action isn't generated, well....you getthe bombs we saw off of guts last evening.