After Two Weeks of Pie...

[Moose Milligan]

Oh no, did you miss the Trea's post? We fixed it, then broke it again.

I'm just curious as to how we fixed it. Was Luke Scott the fix? Freel?

I hate it when left field breaks.

[Mad Mark]

I'd like to shriek now.

Thank you.

There could be nothing worse for the Orioles--nothing worse--than for Felix Pie to have a great 2009. Except maybe for both Pie and Reimold to have great 2009 seasons.

I can't begin to imagine how that notoriously bad manager Dave Trembley would handle having four quality outfielders (two RH and two LH hitting) in the 2010 season. Goodness...he'd have to give them actual days off! Sometimes, they'd have to DH! Cats and dogs would lie down together! Fish would swim backwards! Drew would praise something the Orioles did...without complaining about something trivial (or taking yet another backhanded slap at the team) at the same time!

IT WOULD BE THE END OF THE FREAKIN' WORLD PEOPLE!

IT CANNOT BE ALLOWED TO HAPPEN!

STOP IT...NOW!!!!!

[Jammer7]

I hate it when left field breaks.

My Grammy used to say, "Pie is good fir all that ailes ya." More Pie!

If we're not in contention for a playoff spot, I say give Pie every opportunity to play his way into or out of our plans for next year and beyond. He may never be a .900 OPS guy, but if he settles down defensively in LF and is around .750 OPS and doesn't SO more than around 100 times in 450 ab's...I'll be happy with that.

I've only seen him play in person once, but I liked what I saw. He's raw, and he needs coaching and time to develop. But, the returns could potentially be a perennial all-star in a few years. He's that athletic and only 23 or so. I don't know what's in his head, but he shows rare athletic ability.

[Nigel Tufnel]

This is foolishness.

The funny thing is, I felt the exact same way about your post. Agree to disagree, I suppose.

The "what position do you play?" line is what I think actual O's players say to fans who they overhear referrering to the team as "us" or "we".

[Frobby]

Left field has been broken for quite some time now

In what way was LF broken last year? The O's ranked 4th in OPS in LF, 3rd in HR, 6th in RBI. And the defense in LF was pretty good, too.

My guess is that we'll get less offensive production in LF in 2009 than we got in 2008.

[Moose Milligan]

In what way was LF broken last year? The O's ranked 4th in OPS in LF, 3rd in HR, 6th in RBI. And the defense in LF was pretty good, too.

My guess is that we'll get less offensive production in LF in 2009 than we got in 2008.

It wasn't broken last year, per se...but it still remains to be seen if we have an everyday LFer that can hold it down for the next bit of time.

Personally if we didn't get Pie, I'd have been fine giving it to Scott for 500 at bats this year...apparently the organization thinks that Scott isn't an everday LFer and thats fine.

So if Pie doesn't work out, and we've traded Scott by then, it's up to Reimold.

I suppose I should say it's definitely not broken as we have some intriguing possibilities out there...but it's far from being as fixed as CF and RF.

[JTrea81]

In what way was LF broken last year? The O's ranked 4th in OPS in LF, 3rd in HR, 6th in RBI. And the defense in LF was pretty good, too.

My guess is that we'll get less offensive production in LF in 2009 than we got in 2008.

And that's the problem. And I doubt Pie will be such a dramatic improvement in the defensive dept to justify that offensive drop.

You can say that we are shifting some of that offense to the C and CF positions with the arrival of Wieters and improvement of Jones, but there is also going to be a decline in offense at 1B and at 3B most likely. More offense is better than less offense, so I don't see why we want to put less offense in LF. If Pie's ceiling is league average OFer offensively, I don't see how he is an improvement over what we have already with Scott, Montanez and Reimold.

[Mike B]

And that's the problem. And I doubt Pie will be such a dramatic improvement in the defensive dept to justify that offensive drop.

You can say that we are shifting some of that offense to the C and CF positions with the arrival of Wieters and improvement of Jones, but there is also going to be a decline in offense at 1B and at 3B most likely. More offense is better than less offense, so I don't see why we want to put less offense in LF. If Pie's ceiling is league average OFer offensively, I don't see how he is an improvement over what we have already with Scott, Montanez and Reimold.

Can we please, wait to see how he does before we decide that Felix Pie will be an offensive liability. Open your mind at least enough to consider the fact that he could be a good player. He will hit less HR's than Luke, no doubt but there are other ways to contribute on offense. If after a year he fails then we still did the right thing and tried to develop a good young talent that just one year ago was considered untouchable by his organization and one of baseballs best prospects.

[Mike B]

In what way was LF broken last year? The O's ranked 4th in OPS in LF, 3rd in HR, 6th in RBI. And the defense in LF was pretty good, too.

My guess is that we'll get less offensive production in LF in 2009 than we got in 2008.

The question is can Pie replace the stellar performance that Kevin Millar put up last year. Huff and Scott did not go away. They are still in the lineup. Pie actually replaces Millar and unless you just count HR's, I think Pie has an excellent chance of bettering Millar's numbers. He has to be given the chance.

[Frobby]

The question is can Pie replace the stellar performance that Kevin Millar put up last year. Huff and Scott did not go away. They are still in the lineup. Pie actually replaces Millar and unless you just count HR's, I think Pie has an excellent chance of bettering Millar's numbers. He has to be given the chance.

I don't disagree, although I'm a little nervous about whether Scott will adjust well to the DH role. He hit much better in LF than he did as DH last year. The "Pie for Millar" logic only works if you assume Scott's numbers won't suffer at DH.

In any event, I'm more interested in getting an idea of what Pie can be like in 2010 and 2011 than I am in his exact numbers this year. He could put up .710 like Jones did last year, and as long as I had a sense that he was improving and headed for better things it would not concern me.

[DrungoHazewood]

And that's the problem. And I doubt Pie will be such a dramatic improvement in the defensive dept to justify that offensive drop.

You can say that we are shifting some of that offense to the C and CF positions with the arrival of Wieters and improvement of Jones, but there is also going to be a decline in offense at 1B and at 3B most likely. More offense is better than less offense, so I don't see why we want to put less offense in LF. If Pie's ceiling is league average OFer offensively, I don't see how he is an improvement over what we have already with Scott, Montanez and Reimold.

Scott is probably past peak, Montanez's ceiling is right now as a league-average OF with poor defense, and Reimold is not much better offensively and worse defensively.

PECOTA's weighted mean for Reimold is .240/.313/.422. That's good for 1.5 WARP in about 500 PAs. Pie's is .263/.317/.412, good for almost a win more when defense is thown in.

PECOTA projects likely value through the 2015 season. Pie's projection isn't great because the system is conservative, but it's almost as high as the other three guys put together. Pie has about a 1-in-4 chance of being a star each year by these projections, while Scott is the only one of the other three who clears 15%, and that's only in 2009 and 2010.

I'm sure you think PECOTA is wrong.

[Mike B]

I don't disagree, although I'm a little nervous about whether Scott will adjust well to the DH role. He hit much better in LF than he did as DH last year. The "Pie for Millar" logic only works if you assume Scott's numbers won't suffer at DH.

In any event, I'm more interested in getting an idea of what Pie can be like in 2010 and 2011 than I am in his exact numbers this year. He could put up .710 like Jones did last year, and as long as I had a sense that he was improving and headed for better things it would not concern me.[/QUOTE]

I agree 100%. Like Jones and Markakis, it will be important to judge where Pie is heading after this season. Judging Pie after 150's is wrong, but I am sure many will. Heck many have already decided he stinks, based off of ST numbers.

[Frobby]

Jones last year:

April - .700 OPS

May - .585

June - .804

July - .780

August - .909 (hurt early in the month and had only 11 PA)

Sept. - .642 (coming back from injury)

Markakis in 2006:

April - .558

May - .667

June - .803

July - .999

August - 1.140

Sept. .599

I think it's fair to expect Pie to have had at least one month over .750 OPS in the first three months. If he was below .700 in all three I'd be a bit concerned. I'm also interested to see how his K rate is. So far he has struck out once every 4 PA's in his career. I'd like to see that heading to 1 in 5 or better once he's a couple months in.

[Scrat1]

Jones last year:

April - .700 OPS

May - .585

June - .804

July - .780

August - .909 (hurt early in the month and had only 11 PA)

Sept. - .642 (coming back from injury)

Markakis in 2006:

April - .558

May - .667

June - .803

July - .999

August - 1.140

Sept. .599

I think it's fair to expect Pie to have had at least one month over .750 OPS in the first three months. If he was below .700 in all three I'd be a bit concerned. I'm also interested to see how his K rate is. So far he has struck out once every 4 PA's in his career. I'd like to see that heading to 1 in 5 or better once he's a couple months in.

Unless I'm mistaken, Jones had about a 1 in 4 K rate last year, so even though 1 in 5 would be nice, I don't think it will or should be a deal breaker.

[Frobby]

Unless I'm mistaken, Jones had about a 1 in 4 K rate last year, so even though 1 in 5 would be nice, I don't think it will or should be a deal breaker.

Jones was close to 1 in 5 -- 108 K's in 514 PA. That's 1 every 4.76 PA. That was a significant improvement over what he had done in Seattle. He was better than 1 in 5 in the 2nd half of the year. And, he's only K'd 7 times in 41 PA this spring. He's getting better all the time. I'd like to see Pie on a similar path.